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In Warning To Turkey, Israel Strikes Several Bases Across Syria
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In Warning To Turkey, Israel Strikes Several Bases Across Syria Israel on Tuesday carried out several major airstrikes on Syria, including targeting the capital of Damascus, according to state agency SANA. "An Israeli occupation airstrike targeted the vicinity of the building of the scientific research center in the Barzeh residential district of Damascus," the outlet said. This area has been hit several times in recent years, as it conducted chemical weapons research under Assad. Smoke over the Syrian capital in the evening hours. Separate airstrikes rocked a military airport in Hamas, and reportedly the T4 airbase in Homs province, in central Syria (Syrian desert). No causalities were initially reported, but some sources say they were particularly intense, with five airstrikes launched on the Hama air base in less than half an hour on Wednesday evening. Regional war correspondent Elijah Magnier observers of the strikes: After bombing Damascus, Israel also bombed Syria, Hama and the T4 airport, challenging Turkey, which was/is planning to establish a military air base at the same bombed airport. Since Bashar al-Assad's ouster on December 8, Israel has conducted literally hundreds of strikes on army bases, weapons storehouses, and alleged chemical weapons sites. The timing of these fresh strikes is interesting especially given Turkey's growing closeness to the new Jolani regime. Israel airstrike on Hama military airport pic.twitter.com/ffRiv7zMoY — ScharoMaroof (@ScharoMaroof) April 2, 2025 We earlier featured reporting which says Turkey is mulling the takeover of Syria's T4 airbase, and could provide aircover to the new government, given it has no air protection to speak of. It appears Israel wants to ensure this doesn't happen: A source familiar with the matter told MEE that Turkey has begun moving to take control of the T4 air base, located near Palmyra in central Syria. "A Hisar-type air defense system will be deployed to T4 to provide air cover for the base," the source said. "Once the system is in place, the base will be reconstructed and expanded with necessary facilities. Ankara also plans to deploy surveillance and armed drones, including those with extended strike capabilities," the same report said. Israel sends a warning to Turkey by heavily striking bases across Syria, saying that Ankara shouldn’t try to prevent Israelis from flying over the airspace https://t.co/VlF5ewcsis — Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) April 2, 2025 While Iran has long been Israel's enemy number one in Syria, Turkey is increasingly being viewed from Tel Aviv as a dangerous regional rival, especially as it cozies up to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham/AQ militants in Syria. Israel now wants to ensure it has complete dominance over Syria's skies for the foreseeable future. Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 06:55
Maxine Waters Alleges Trump Wants To Replace US Dollar With His Stablecoin
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Maxine Waters Alleges Trump Wants To Replace US Dollar With His Stablecoin Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com, California Representative Maxine Waters, ranking member of the US House Financial Services Committee, used her opening statement at a markup hearing to criticize President Donald Trump’s business and ethical entanglements with the crypto industry, including the launch of a stablecoin by a family-backed company. Addressing lawmakers at an April 2 hearing, Waters said Trump had used his position as president to leverage “multiple crypto schemes” for profit, including a US dollar-pegged stablecoin launched by World Liberty Financial (WLFI) — the firm backed by his family. The California lawmaker pointed to Trump’s memecoin launched in January, his plans to establish a national cryptocurrency stockpile, and “his own stablecoin,” referring to WLFI’s USD1 token launched in March. Rep. Maxine Waters addressing the House Financial Services Committee on April 2. Source: GOP Financial Services “With this stablecoin bill, this committee is setting an unacceptable and dangerous precedent, validating the president and his insiders’ efforts to write rules of the road that will enrich themselves at the expense of everyone else,” said Waters, adding: “Trump likely wants the entire government to use stablecoins from payments made by the Department of Housing and Urban Development, to Social Security payments, to paying taxes. And which coin do you think Trump would replace the dollar with? His own, of course.” Waters does not stand alone in her criticism of Trump’s crypto ventures, with many lawmakers and experts across the political spectrum suggesting potential conflicts of interest. Committee Chair French Hill, who spoke on stablecoins before Waters, also reportedly said that the Trump family’s involvement in the industry makes legislation “more complicated.” “If there is no effort to block the President of the United States of America from owning his stablecoin business [...] I will never be able to agree on supporting this bill, and I would ask other members not to be enablers,” said Waters. Representative Bryan Steil, who introduced the Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy, or STABLE Act, did not immediately address Waters’ concerns about Trump’s stablecoin but referred to establishing safeguards for consumers. Hill did not mention Trump in his opening statement but said there needed to be a “clear federal framework” for payment stablecoins. Crypto legislation moving through Congress The committee will consider amendments to the STABLE Act, as well as bills to combat illicit finance using emerging financial technologies and blocking the US government from issuing a central bank digital currency, or CBDC. The markup hearing was a necessary step before the committee could vote on whether to advance the bills to the House of Representatives. Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 06:30
European Officials Now Worry About Reliance Of Dollar Funding By The Fed
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European Officials Now Worry About Reliance Of Dollar Funding By The Fed Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com, Can the EU rely on dollar funding by the Fed with Trump in play? Dollar Funding Under Trump Reuters reports Some European officials weigh if they can rely on Fed for dollars under Trump Some European central banking and supervisory officials are questioning whether they can still rely on the U.S. Federal Reserve to provide dollar funding in times of market stress, six people familiar with the matter said, casting some doubt over what has been a bedrock of financial stability. But the European officials have held informal discussions about this possibility – which Reuters is reporting for the first time – because their trust in the United States government has been shaken by some of the Trump administration’s policies. President Donald Trump has made a sharp break from long-standing U.S. policy in several areas, such as appearing to endorse Russia’s position on Ukraine, raising questions about U.S. commitment to European security and imposing tariffs on its allies. In some European forums where participants assess potential risks to the financial system, these officials have discussed scenarios under which the U.S. government might pressure the Fed to suspend the dollar backstops, two of the sources said. Some officials have been gaming out whether they can find alternatives to the U.S. central bank, the two sources said. In times of market stress, the Fed has provided the European Central Bank and other major counterparts with access to dollar funding. The takeaway from these discussions: there is no good substitute to the Fed, said the six sources, who include senior ECB and European Union banking supervisory staff with first-hand knowledge of the conversations. The sources all requested anonymity to speak candidly about the private deliberations. The ECB and the Fed declined to comment for this article. The White House did not respond to a request for comment. Remarkable Discussion My answer is the same as what sources told Reuters. “The sources consider it highly unlikely the Fed would not honour its funding backstops — and the U.S. central bank itself has given no signals to suggest that.” However, that Europe sees any need for this discussion is remarkable in and of itself. The Fed is still independent, at least for now. But it’s fair game to assume the US Treasury might pressure the Fed to do whatever the Hell Trump wants. Weaponization of Swift Please consider the March 2022 Richmond Fed article What Is SWIFT, and Could Sanctions Impact the U.S. Dollar’s Dominance? The recent removal of Russian banks from the SWIFT messaging system has highlighted the importance of payments in supporting economies. But the weaponization of SWIFT has also left some commentators worrying about the loss of the U.S. dollar’s dominance, as it might drive banks and firms to other substitutes. This Economic Brief discusses the economics of SWIFT and explains why emigrating from the U.S. dollar may be more difficult than we thought. The Richmond’s Fed’s assessment is self-serving. Yet, it appears accurate. Importantly the Fed even admits weaponization, the emphasis was mine. Dollar Weaponization Expands On May 13, 2023 I commented Dollar Weaponization Expands – FDIC Message to Foreign Depositors Is Don’t Trust the US Systemic Risk Assessment The FDIC made a “systemic risk exception” for Silicon Valley Bank to protect depositor funds beyond its limit of $250,000 per bank account. FDIC’s stated “insurance” is for US depositors only. But the exception to make all US depositors whole means foreign depositors bear 100% of responsibility for the collapse of SVB. Since bond holders rate higher than unsecured depositors, and the FDIC had significant losses rated to SVB, foreign depositors may get zero cents on the dollar. If you are a foreign depositor at any small or midsized bank, the FDIC is affirming that you better get your money out now. What Does China Do With a Dollar That’s No Longer Risk Free? On March 18, 2022, I asked What Does China Do With a Dollar That’s No Longer Risk Free? Buy Gold? Q&A With Michael Pettis Mish: Will China now hold more commodities and fewer dollars despite the pro-cyclical nature of it? More Euros or Yen over dollars? More gold? Michael Pettis: “Given that so much of China’s “reserves” are now indirect and held by state-owned banks (all the increase since 2017) it’s hard to say what the currency composition of China’s reserves are. “Officially the US dollar is still by far the biggest component, but it is slowly declining. “I expect that this will continue as far as the official reserves go but, as you know, the hard part of reducing the US dollar component of your reserves is figuring out what the alternative should be, and with such high and growing reserves (once you include the indirect reserves at the state-owned banks) that is a very difficult question to resolve.” Is China Dumping US Treasuries? I post https://twitter.com/LukeGromen/status/1648364877302452225 “Strategists Joana Freire and Stephen Jen calculated that the greenback accounted for about two-thirds of total global reserves in 2003, then 55% by 2021, and 47% last year.” This question comes up every year, and every year my answer is the same. No, Luke Gromen, China masks its US treasury holding. Here’s the correct take. Here’s another take. Setser “The dollar’s share of reserves didn’t actually change at all in 2022.“ But if the IMF's data on reserve holdings is adjusted for changes in US bond market valuation, I don't get any real US dollar sales -- No currency got large reserve inflows in 22 in fact. 5/ pic.twitter.com/XWFN9zdzGX — Brad Setser (@Brad_Setser) April 19, 2023 What About China? And looking at reserves without also looking at the foreign assets of state banks and SWFs is so ... 2012. The cutting edge of flow tracking (imo) captures SWFs, forwards, state banks and the like ... 7/ pic.twitter.com/K5RRVN2n51 — Brad Setser (@Brad_Setser) April 19, 2023 Setser “Looking at reserves without also looking at the foreign assets of state banks and SWFs is so … 2012.“ China masks its reserves in SOEs, something I have commented on many times. Still More Fairy Tales of US Dollar Demise That Didn’t Happen For discussion, please see my April 26, 2023 post Still More Fairy Tales of US Dollar Demise That Didn’t Happen Sorry for the digression, but it’s an important one. It is currently very difficult to avoid the dollar. More Gold Backed BRIC Currency Silliness on Dethroning the Dollar On July 7, 2023, I noted More Gold Backed BRIC Currency Silliness on Dethroning the Dollar If Russia or China had a gold-backed BRIC, what would that even mean? Would you trust it? Buy it? The BRIC is literally of zero threat to anyone. Truth Social Post “The idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the Dollar while we stand by and watch is OVER. We require a commitment from these Countries that they will neither create a new BRICS Currency, nor back any other Currency to replace the mighty U.S. Dollar or, they will face 100% Tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful U.S. Economy.” “They can go find another “sucker!” There is no chance that the BRICS will replace the U.S. Dollar in International Trade, and any Country that tries should wave goodbye to America.” On November 30, 2024, I commented Trump’s Obvious Bluff Over BRICS Currency Proves He Is Clueless on Trade Let’s start with the obvious. First, Trump is bluffing. Second, he is clueless as to what the real problem is. Global Consumers of Last Resort The US is stuck with the reserve currency because we have the largest, most open capital markets in the world, the world’s largest bond market, and a far better business climate than the EU, China, or Japan. BRICS Irony Trump demands a weak dollar. True competition to the dollar in the form of alternate reserve currencies would actually help. Trump Wants a Weak Dollar But Needs a Strong One On March 16, 2025, I commented Trump Wants a Weak Dollar But Needs a Strong One One way to get a weaker dollar is for the US to run huge budget deficits and for the Fed to not follow through with interest rate hikes. But that conflicts with Trump’s promise to balance the budget. And balancing the budget would strengthen the dollar. Strengthening the dollar would help with inflation but Trump wants a weak dollar. Trump wants “made in America” but the US is the highest cost producer or nearly everything non-agricultural. So good luck with exports. Trump demands no competition to the dollar, but that is one thing propping up the dollar! It’s all so damn convoluted that Europe is now concerned over dollar funding. US dollar avoidance is not easy, as discussed, but Trump is greatly increasing the incentive for nations to try. I suggest the EU needs to focus on building an alternative to SWIFT, as soon as possible. The EU half-heartily tried, but gave up. Try again, better this time. Swift avoidance would not end dollar reliance, but it would help the EU find ways to avoid US sanctions. And a sanction showdown with the EU is coming. Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 05:00
ICC Blasts Hungary For Ignoring Arrest Warrant As Orban Hosts Netanyahu
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ICC Blasts Hungary For Ignoring Arrest Warrant As Orban Hosts Netanyahu The International Criminal Court (ICC) has denounced Hungary’s decision to defy its arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu after The Hague charged him with war crimes last year related to the Gaza war. Netanyahu is set to begin a four-day visit to Hungary on Wednesday. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban made it clear he will not enforce the arrest warrant upon issuing the invitation. This despite Hungary being a founding member of the ICC. AFP/Getty Images This marks only Netanyahu's second international trip since the warrant was issued, and he's had to avoid Europe altogether until now. The only other trip was to the United States, where he had received a standing ovation in Congress. Last November, when Budapest first unveiled the formal state invitation, Orban dismissed the ICC's arrest warrant as "shameful" and "absurd". It should be noted that Hungary had also long ago declared it would never arrest Russian president Vladimir Putin should he visit the country. The conservative populist Hungarian leader had further accused The Hague of "interfering in an ongoing conflict for political purposes" - in reference to Israel's Gaza operations. ICC court spokesman Fadi El Abdallah in a fresh statement said that it is not for parties to the ICC "to unilaterally determine the soundness of the Court’s legal decisions." "Any dispute concerning the judicial functions of the Court shall be settled by the decision of the Court," he said, asserting that member nations have an obligation to carry out the rulings of the court. The Associated Press has observed that "Members of Orbán’s government have suggested that Hungary, which became a signatory to the court in 2001, could withdraw." Amnesty International was also among the human rights groups blasting Hungary's provocative invitation, with a spokesperson saying, "Hungary’s invitation shows contempt for international law and confirms that alleged war criminals wanted by the ICC are welcome on the streets of a European Union member state." More anger directed at Orban as he's already unpopular among Western European leaders, and a longtime thorn in the side of EU counterparts... It is outrageous that any European Union state would allow Netanyahu to visit without arresting him on his outstanding International Criminal Court warrant. Hungary is no exception even though Viktor Orban routinely flouts the rule of law. https://t.co/xLoxM5YeQM — Kenneth Roth (@KenRoth) April 2, 2025 Israel's Gaza operations started again last month, and Gaza health authorities say that over 1,000 Palestinians have died since then. This brings the official number of deaths to over 50,000. However, Israel has disputed these figures, and has claimed that tens of thousands of the casualties are actually Hamas fighters. Days ago Israel's military once again ordered the evacuation of Rafah, and emerging reports say that in Gaza City food and water are becoming scarce. Netanyahu has vowed, despite an avalanche of international criticism, to pursue Hamas until the group is eradicated and can no longer attempt to assert its rule over Gaza. Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 04:15
Rape, Violent Crime Explodes Even Higher In Germany; Number Of "Non-German" Suspects Up
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Rape, Violent Crime Explodes Even Higher In Germany; Number Of "Non-German" Suspects Up Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news, Violent crime and sexual assault cases have increased in number even further in Germany, according to police statistics. The number of “non-German” suspects has also risen by over 7 and a half percent, according to the figures seen by German newspaper Die Welt. The statistics show that violent crime as a whole was up by 1.5 per cent in 2024, a new record high for the country. 1/ German federal crime stats for 2024 are out: ▶️ Overall violent crime up 1.5% over 2023, which itself was a 15-year high. ▶️ Homicide +.9% ▶️ Violent sex offenses +9.3% ▶️ Aggravated assault +2.4% ▶️ Robbery -3.7% https://t.co/hYxhZ76xbj — Andrew Hammel (@AndrewHammel1) March 29, 2025 The report states that the number of murder and manslaughter cases are up by almost 1 per cent in a year, while serious sexual crimes including rape and sexual assault leading to death have risen by a whopping 9.3 per cent in 2024. 3/ ▶️ Overall crime dropped slightly, mostly owing to the German government's decision to legalize cannabis (the number of cannabis offenses dropped 53%). ▶️ Number of non-German suspects overall stable at just under 50%, 17.5% of criminal suspects are asylum-seekers. — Andrew Hammel (@AndrewHammel1) March 29, 2025 As we have previously noted, the “non-German” suspects aspect is also misleading given that many of the “German” suspects of crimes are really foreigners who have obtained German citizenship, or they are Second or third generation migrants. 2023’s stats revealed that violent crime in Germany rocketed to a 15 year high, and 2024’s stats show that it continues to climb. Over 41 percent of all crime suspects in Germany are foreigners, despite only representing 15 percent of the total population. Foreign migrants were also responsible for 58.5 percent of all violent crimes. Meanwhile, the new German government coalition, which is likely to be the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Social Democrats (SPD) is looking to ban “lies,” according to a working paper that emerged from the group “culture and media” between the two parties. What constitutes ‘lies’ you might ask. Well, Bild newspaper received a copy of the working paper, which outlines “disinformation and fake news” as threats to democracy. Given that anything that goes against the leftist government narrative is deemed to be ‘disinformation’, you can see where this is headed. Another part of the paper addresses “hate and agitation.” Again, you can see where that’s heading. As we previously highlighted, District council member Marie-Thérèse Kaiser of the AfD Party was found guilty of ‘incitement’ by a district court after she posted a link to the government’s own statistics on crimes committed by migrants, specifically rape, and asked why they are so disproportionately high. Opposition parties on the right, including AfD, have continually argued that the data shows the urgent need for a cap on immigration, and have argued that such ‘integration’ policies are a key component of the coalition government’s race to naturalize millions of foreigners, thereby masking the truth of who is behind the crime surge. * * * Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews. Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 03:30
Gulf States Refuse To Let US Use Bases, Airspace For Iran Attack
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Gulf States Refuse To Let US Use Bases, Airspace For Iran Attack Via Middle East Eye Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have imposed a ban on US warplanes using their air fields or skies to attack Iran after US President Donald Trump over the weekend threatened to bomb the country. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait have all told the US they will not permit their airspaces or territories to be used as a launchpad against Iran, including for refuelling and rescue operations, a senior US official told Middle East Eye. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military planning. "They do not want to be drawn in," the official said. The Gulf states’ intransigence is a setback for the Trump administration, which has hoped to use massive air strikes on the Houthis in Yemen as a show of force to corral Tehran to the negotiating table on a nuclear deal. If Iran realizes the US's oil-rich Arab allies are not on board with strikes, it could harden their negotiating position. US Air Force C-17 Globemasters at al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, via AFP The Gulf states were more accommodating on the Houthi strikes, a former US official briefed on the matter told MEE without divulging which Gulf countries the US used as a launchpad for recent strikes. The former official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said the US felt confident it had enough Gulf support, including to launch important recovery flights, if any American aircraft were downed during those operations. The Trump administration has been courting the Gulf states to come on board as it ramps up a "maximum pressure" campaign against Tehran. US defense and intelligence officials met with both their Emirati and Saudi counterparts in March in Washington DC, around the time of the first Houthi strikes. In quick succession, the Trump administration approved long-stalled arms sales to Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Doha received approval to purchase MQ-9 Reaper drones, and Riyadh secured weapon systems that convert unguided air to ground rockets to precision rockets. Trump said on Monday that he plans to visit Saudi Arabia and potentially other Gulf states as early as May. US turns to Diego Garcia base The US has been moving warplanes and cargo to Jordan and Gulf states at the highest level since the 7 October 2023 Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel morphed into a simmering regional conflict. According to flight tracking data shared on X by open source analysts, the number of US military cargo flights to the region has surged by 50 percent compared to previous highs. In response to the Gulf states' ban, the US has amassed B-2 bombers at Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean, the official said. This is not the first time American war planners leaned on Diego Garcia’s strategic position as an alternative to Gulf air bases. During the late 1990s, when the US was bombing Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and Saudi Arabia imposed a freeze, the US used the Chagos Islands base as a launchpad. Open-source satellite information provided by Planet Labs earlier this week showed three B-2 bombers on the US base. Other open-source accounts shared imagery suggesting at least five B-2 bombers were on the base. The Chagos Islands base is within 5,300 kilometres of Iran, well within the B-2 refuelling range of approximately 11,000 kilometres. B-2s are capable of carrying 30,000-pound “bunker-buster” bombs that would be needed to penetrate Iran’s nuclear sites deep underground, known as the Massive Ordnance Penetrator. Diego Garcia complicates Iran’s power of deterrence against the US. Iran's tit-for-tat warnings on Gulf In October 2024, when Iran was girding for Israeli retaliation over its second direct missile attack on Israel, the Islamic Republic warned Gulf states it would bomb their oil facilities in response to an Israeli strike. Those carefully constructed tit-for-tat warnings allowed Iran to ward off an Israeli strike on their energy facilities at the time. However, if the US uses Diego Garcia to attack Iran, it could avoid the Gulf states' airspace altogether, or at the very least, give Gulf monarchs some plausible deniability about being involved in strikes. That gives Iran fewer options to deter American or Israeli strikes by threatening the Gulf. Iran was believed to be behind the 2019 attack on Saudi Arabia’s Aramco oil facilities. But Iran and the Sunni Gulf monarchs have patched up ties since then. The Telegraph reported on Monday that Iranian military commanders were being urged to launch pre-emptive strikes on Diego Garcia. Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert at the Foundation For Defence of Democracies think tank in Washington, said on X that while Tehran’s ballistic missiles’ range is publicly capped at 2,000 kilometres, it could hit the island by giving intermediate range ballistic missiles to the Houthis which it may be able to produce, launching Shahed drones from ships or using container-launched cruise missiles that Russia and China produce to attack from the Indian Ocean. From Pacific to Middle East Trump raised the specter of a new Middle East war in an interview on Saturday, threatening "bombing the likes of which they (Iran) have never seen before" if Iran doesn’t agree to a nuclear deal. Trump is pursuing maximalist demands on Iran’s nuclear programme. National security advisor Mike Waltz said recently that the US wanted to see a “full dismantlement” of Tehran’s nuclear capabilities. Iran, which insists its nuclear program is for civilian purposes, has rejected that. The Trump administration’s demands also put the US on a collision course with Russia, with which it is trying to reset relations. Russia built Iran's first nuclear power plant at Bushehr, and its state-run atomic energy giant Rosatom says it is in talks to build more. Regional diplomats and analysts are trying to decipher whether the US military build-up in the Middle East is designed to put teeth behind Trump’s threats or if the US is preparing for a strike. In addition to cargo flights, the US has ordered two aircraft carriers to the Middle East. Notably, the US has moved the carrier Carl Vinson out of the Pacific and to the Middle East, despite heightened tensions around Taiwan. The US has at least 40,000 troops in the Middle East. The majority are located in the oil-rich Gulf states, where they are based at a string of strategic air and naval bases. Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Air Base is home to the US’s 378th Air Expeditionary Wing, which operates F-16 and F-35 jet fighters. The US operates MQ-9 Reaper drones and jet fighters out of the UAE’s Al Dhafra Air Base. Kuwait’s Ali al-Salem Air Base is home to the 386th Air Expeditionary Wing. Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base hosts the regional headquarters for US Central Command. It has also hosted some Israeli military officials, MEE has previously reported, but it's not clear if those officials are still in the country. The island kingdom of Bahrain is home to around 9,000 US troops that belong to the headquarters of the US Naval Forces Central Command and the US Fifth Fleet. Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 02:45
Zelensky Has No Feasible Alternative To Accepting Trump's Lopsided Resource Deal
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Zelensky Has No Feasible Alternative To Accepting Trump's Lopsided Resource Deal Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack, Trump warned last weekend that Zelensky will have “some problems – big, big problems” if he “tries to back out of the rare earth deal” amidst reports that the latest version of this agreement is very lopsided. It allegedly compels Ukraine to contribute half of its revenue from all resource projects and related infrastructure into a US-controlled investment fund, pay off all US aid from 2022 onward through these means, and give the US the right of first offer on new projects and a veto over resource sales to others. These tougher terms can be considered punishment for Zelensky picking his infamous fight with Trump and Vance at the White House in late February, but the whole package is being sold to Ukraine as a “security guarantee” from the US. The argument goes that America won’t let Russia threaten these projects, which also include pipelines and ports, thus leading to it at the very least resuming 2023-levels of military-intelligence aid and maybe even directly escalating with Russia to get it into back down. Ukraine kinda already has such Article 5-like guarantees from the US and other major NATO countries per the bilateral pacts that it clinched with them all throughout last year as explained here, but this proposed arrangement gives the US tangible stakes in deterring or immediately stopping hostilities. The trade-off though is that Ukraine must sacrifice part of its economic sovereignty, which is politically uncomfortable since Zelensky told his compatriots that they’re fighting to preserve its full sovereignty. If Zelensky agrees to Trump’s lopsided resource deal, then the optics of any ceasefire, armistice, or peace treaty would pair with de facto global recognition of Russian control over the fifth of Ukraine’s pre-2014 territory that Kiev still claims as its own to craft the perception of a joint asymmetrical partition. Not only might Zelensky’s political career end if Ukraine was then forced to hold truly free and fair elections, but his envisaged legacy in Ukrainians’ eyes as this century’s top “freedom fighter” would also be shattered. He doesn’t have any feasible alternative though since going behind Trump’s back to reach a comparatively better deal with the Brits and/or Europeans wouldn’t result in the “security guarantees” that he’s convinced himself that Ukraine needs in order to compromise with Russia. No one other than the US has any chance of militarily taking on Russia, let alone the political will, and not to mention solely over their investments in a war-torn third country whose resource wealth is reportedly questionable. If Zelensky keeps dillydallying, then Trump might once again temporarily suspend military and intelligence aid to Ukraine as leverage while tacking on even more punitive terms as revenge. The conflict with Russia would also naturally continue, thus making it impossible for Ukraine to develop its resource industry and related infrastructure even if it reached a deal with someone else. The longer that the conflict lasts, the greater the likelihood that Russia will destroy more of those same assets too. But if Zelensky accepts the latest deal on offer, then he’d obtain the “security guarantees” that he’s looking for, thus making him more likely to accept a ceasefire and then possibly leading to Trump putting further pressure on Putin to follow suit such as imposing strict secondary sanctions on Russian oil clients. Zelensky would sacrifice his political career, his envisaged legacy in Ukrainians’ eyes, and part of his country’s economic sovereignty, but he’d avert a much worse scenario than if he rejected this deal. Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 02:00
How Globalists Use Crazed Leftists To Piss Off The Populace And Provoke Dictatorship
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How Globalists Use Crazed Leftists To Piss Off The Populace And Provoke Dictatorship Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us, There is nothing more dangerous than an incomplete picture of history. A hundred years from now, if the powers-that-be have their way, the few children still allowed to be born (due to carbon controls) will be regaled with school lessons about the “Dark Ages of Nationalism” – When humanity was divided into warring states and divided societies that refused to embrace multiculturalism “to the detriment of all”. They will say that a “great movement” for globalism and wokeness arose and that the courageous revolutionaries fought evil conservative fascists using any means necessary. The political left will be painted as heroes fighting, not for freedom, but for equity and the “greater good”. Western culture, Christianity, meritocracy, moral objectivity, personal liberty and appeals to reason will be demonized as relics of the old world – Monstrous constructs that prevented civilization from attaining true “oneness”. None of this will be true, of course. The majority of wars are triggered by globalist interests, not nationalists, and the political left is a gaggle of insane zealots hellbent on destroying the west. But, as they say, history is written by the victors. Many conservatives and liberty advocates still don’t understand that we are in the middle of a 4th Generation conflict. It’s not a political or ideological disagreement, it’s a war; a guerrilla war in which the enemy hides behind civilian status and the legal apparatus. They use our moral code and our constitutional provisions against us. They find loopholes in the governmental structure and exploit those weaknesses. They turn our society into a living suicide bomb, all while claiming they hold a position of ethical superiority. It has happened before… If you get the chance I highly recommend readers check out the in-depth investigative analysis of professor and economist Antony Sutton; specifically his book ‘Wall Street And The Bolshevik Revolution’. In it he describes the historical timeline of how Trotsky and Lenin were funded and aided by the elites of the era. The key leaders of the Marxist takeover of Russia could not have done what they did without the help of American and European globalists. The greater takeaway from Sutton’s revelation is not so much what happened in the past, but what is happening NOW and how it is similar. The reality of a hidden hand behind the Bolshevik Revolution might sound rather familiar – Today’s DOGE audits have exposed massive bureaucratic manipulation schemes through agencies like USAID to instigate political and social change in America and in foreign nations. These schemes involve vast sums of taxpayer subsidies cycling through globalist controlled NGOs that then use the free cash to push multiculturalism, LGBT propaganda and color revolution. The agenda to create a one world system and erase traditional western principles is ongoing, handed down from one generation of globalists to the next in a parasitic lineage. The people behind it are moral relativists and Luciferians (they worship themselves and desire to become godlike). They pursue their goals with the fervor of a religious cult. They believe in what they are doing utterly; with as much conviction as you or I hold in our fight for freedom and accountability. In America the process is beginning to parallel the leftist movements that ended with Marxist terrorism in Europe and the eventual rise of fascism. After WWI, leftists engaged in a hurricane of disruption tactics including industrial sabotage, mob intimidation, politically motivated worker strikes, terror attacks, bombings, assassinations, etc. Modern day academics try to paint these tactics as heroic, or at the very least they claim that the actions of Marxists had nothing to do with the European embrace of fascism. This is a lie. It was, in fact, the constant psychological attacks, economic attacks and direct attacks by far-left groups that made fascism so appealing to common Europeans. Ernst Thalmann, the Stalin-backed leader of the far-left during the last days of Weimar Germany, came to the conclusion that the moderate left was a greater threat than the Nazis. The communists viewed centrist liberals as an impediment to their efforts, much like the woke leftist of today treat moderates as heretics instead of allies. They alienated everybody and made everyone want to work with the fascists. Of course, Adolph Hitler and Benito Mussolini BOTH openly venerated Karl Marx and his socialist system of governance. Fascism was nothing more than a different flavor of leftist tyranny posing as a solution to leftist tyranny. But for Europeans tired after years of societal division and constant unrest, the fascist message of order was enticing. Antony Sutton outlines this dichotomy and how globalists helped the Nazis rise to power in his book ‘Wall Street And The Rise Of The Third Reich’. In other words, the globalists created a Marxist terror campaign across Europe and then used it to drive the public into the arms of another socialist empire in the form of The Third Reich. In Germany, people supported fascism because they sought to drive out and eliminate the social rot created by Bolshevik relativism (very similar to the rot we see in America today). For instance, sexual degeneracy was rampant in Germany after WWI. The very first transgender clinic was founded in Berlin in 1919. The Marxists lobbied for the legalization of abortion in order to garner more female support. The rise of the “sexual reformation” was initiated and the 1920s equivalent of the “Gay Pride” movement was born. Pedophiles began to creep out of the woodwork – The concept of underage prostitution and “rent boys” was a notable problem in Berlin. Questions of personal liberty are fair to argue. But without moderation, psycho-sexual obsessions embraced on a large scale can trigger social collapse. The true intent of any sexual reformation is to normalize cultural and psychological outliers. Weimar Germany in the 1920s was very much like America in the 2020s in this way. Then there was hyperinflation, economic hardship and vying political factions that drove fear into common Germans. The fascists offered a clear vision, they offered economic prosperity, they offered domestic peace, they offered an end to the morally bankrupt madness of the left, and the public jumped at the chance. It was not a good choice, but it was better to them than allowing a communist takeover. The globalists have a tendency to attack a target population from two sides, using chaos they control, and then order they control. Marxism plays the role of chaos, and fascism plays the role of order. Most of us are familiar with the idea of the Hegelian Dialectic. However, I would argue that the situation is much more complex today than it has ever been. There is only one true option; order is the obvious choice. Leftists and globalists must be removed from power. But how do we avoid doing what the Germans did? How do we remove the leftist threat without diving headfirst into our own brand of totalitarianism? It might not be possible. As I warned in my article ‘Terror Attacks Kick Off In 2025 – It’s Only Going To Get Worse So Be Prepared’, published in January, there is now a rising tide of leftist sabotage. Today, activists across the country are using property destruction for intimidation. It’s not going to stop there. This is just the first phase. There’s the judicial overreach by activist judges to thwart any cuts to the bureaucracy, and the attempts to stop deportations of illegals. There’s steady online threats of assassination and calls for alliances with foreign adversaries and terror groups. Just be ready for bombings, shootings and the rampaging mobs because that’s all coming this summer, I have no doubt. The risk of martial law being declared is very high if things go the way I suspect they will go, and a majority of the US public will applaud the idea. Donald Trump has taken measures to follow through on every one of his campaign promises so far and I believe that this has earned him the benefit of the doubt. However, if he did call for martial law under the circumstances I describe to expedite matters, conservatives would be falling into a classic government power trap. Once that door is opened it will be hard to reverse matters, and there’s no guarantee that the right wing will be in control of the machine as it shifts from checks and balances into a streamlined top down autocracy. We almost fell off that cliff under the Biden Administration during covid and it’s a miracle the country is still in one piece. The scary thing is, beyond the hypothetical risks involved, it’s difficult to argue that martial law is unreasonable. The leftists are making it very hard for us to want to fight for their liberty, and frankly most conservatives would not care if they were shipped off to an isolated island somewhere to cannibalize each other. If you examine how these activists rationalize their violence on social media, one can only conclude that they need to be locked up or booted out of the country. They’re not redeemable. Their actions are designed to elicit a call of force from conservatives. Then the activists rush to to the global stage and scream “You see! The right wingers really are the fascists we said they were!” The mere act of applying law and order becomes “tyranny” by the definition of the progressives. In the meantime, a lot of libertarians are still out there in the wilderness searching for a perfect solution in which no one’s rights are stepped on and all viewpoints are respected. I’ve accepted that this is not going to happen. There is no silver bullet, no magically pure society in which everyone leaves everyone else alone. In a war, someone’s rights are going out the window. It’s a zero sum game for conservatives because the more we accommodate the political left and treat them like fellow citizens rather than an enemy insurgency, the more the US will degrade into chaos. If we respond to them as enemies, crushing them like the bugs they are, then we become the bad guys and potentially welcome in a level of government power that could hurt us all in the end. My solution is an ugly one and it’s something that most conservative commentators don’t want to touch with a ten foot pole: Instead of relying on government power to stop the political left and the globalists, common Americans should organize and handle the problem independently. This removes the danger of government overreach and constitutional trespass. The average American is not limited by the constitution, the government is. We don’t have to respect the legal rights of NGOs. We don’t have to give leeway to leftist rioters because we’re afraid of political optics. We don’t have to let globalists operate in the US with impunity and without fear. Keep in mind that the US was NOT founded as a libertine nation where anything goes. The Founders believed in revolution against tyranny, not revolution against morality. They believed in freedom, as long as it’s freedom WITH responsibility. They believed in rules and order, not anarchy. There’s no way on Earth they would have tolerated leftist and globalist machinations. Neither should we. When we do act, we have to make sure we don’t create a governmental Golem that ultimately turns on us. * * * If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch. Learn more about it HERE. * * * Best sellers at ZH Store: IQ Biologix Colostrum (25% IgG from first milking of grassfed cows) IQ Astaxanthin Ultimate Antioxidant (6,000x stronger than vitamin C) ZeroHedge Multitool (Extremely solid, very sharp, comes with ZH Logo belt pouch) Anza Red-Black Infinity Handle Knife (Made in the USA from carbon steel) Click picture, check out knife... Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 23:25
China Ends Military Drills With 'Simulated Attacks' On Taiwan Ports, Energy Sites
1743649200 from ZEROHEDGE
China Ends Military Drills With 'Simulated Attacks' On Taiwan Ports, Energy Sites China's military on Wednesday announced the completion of major war drills aimed at Taiwan, and which included a 'live fire' portion - as well as the patrols of some 20 naval ships off Taiwan's coast. The PLA's Eastern Theater Command revealed that the second day involved simulated strikes on key ports and energy sites of the self-ruled island and US ally. A PLA spokesman had described drills which "test the troops' capabilities" in areas such as "blockade and control, and precision strikes on key targets." The Chinese military further said it conducted "long-range live-fire drills". China's Shandong aircraft carrier was also spotted in regional waters testing its ability to "blockade" Taiwan, as part of the exercises dubbed "Strait Thunder-2025A". Beijing's foreign ministry meanwhile on Wednesday declared the "punishment will not stop" if Taiwan leaders don't halt their 'separatist' rhetoric. Additional to the naval assets at sea, some 50 jets were involved in the drills, the biggest since early last year - to which Taiwan's military responded by dispatching its own aircraft and ships, and land-based missile systems on coastal areas. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense listed out the following Chinese military weaponry which was moved near Taiwan by early afternoon on the first day of the exercise: 71 sorties by military aircraft and drones, 21 navy ships ranged around the island, and the aforementioned Shandong carrier which was spotted about 220 nautical miles east of Taiwan The Eastern Theatre Command simultaneous to all of this had issued a brief video calling Lai a "parasite" in English, also depicting him as a green bug dangled by chopsticks over a burning Taiwan. Taiwan officials blasted the drills as "reckless" and "irresponsible". Taiwan's military subsequently elevated its readiness level to ensure China does not "turn drills into combat" and "launch a sudden attack on us." Via Marine Insight China's Foreign Ministry had at the week's start called out Washington's role in the Taiwan tensions, slamming US’ use of "China threat" rhetoric which is bent on provoking confrontation, but which will end in regional countries being used as "cannon fodder" for US hegemony - according to a statement. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 23:00
Trump's Reconfiguration Of Global Conflict: What It Means For Asia And Europe
1743647700 from ZEROHEDGE
Trump's Reconfiguration Of Global Conflict: What It Means For Asia And Europe Authored by Joseph Yizheng Lian via The Epoch Times, Two months into his second term, President Donald Trump was accused by some politicians in the West of abandoning Washington’s longstanding allies as a result of his stance on the war in Ukraine. But one doesn’t have to look very far back in history to note that a similar act of “unfriending” had occurred from continental Europe and wasn’t unjustified. In 1988, the late British Prime Minister Lady Margaret Thatcher, speaking at the College of Europe in Bruges, Belgium, advised her audience thus: “We must strive to maintain the United States’ commitment to Europe’s defence. And that means recognising the burden on their resources of the world role they undertake and their point that their allies should bear the full part of the defence of freedom, particularly as Europe grows wealthier.” Unfortunately, those mild words of the Iron Lady fell on deaf ears. Eleven years later, her tone had changed into one of disdain and spite, when in a Conservative Party conference in Blackpool she shockingly declared, “In my lifetime all the problems have come from mainland Europe, and all the solutions have come from the English-speaking nations across the world.” Between Bruges and Blackpool, Thatcher morphed from a 30-year supporter of European integration into a fierce opponent. She decried the “British malaise”—a term used by Conservative politician and historian Sir Ian Gilmour in his 1969 book “The Body Politic”—to characterize the economic stagnation, the social decline, and the sense of futility and hopelessness that seemed to pervade British society. Thatcher abhorred the European welfare state, criticized intransigent unionism, and loathed the power wielded by unelected Brussels bureaucrats, who had virtually forgotten NATO by the mid-1990s, even though Europe had grown rich. She won her battle posthumously, in 2020 (BREXIT). U.S. President Ronald Reagan and British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher pose for photographers on the patio outside the Oval Office in Washington on July 17, 1987. Mike Sargent/AFP via Getty Images Since then, primarily by default, Britain has gone out of Europe and built partnerships in the Indo–Pacific, a region that it is historically familiar with, signed bilateral free trade agreements Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and is in talks for new ones with the United States and India. The UK has recently gained membership in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, or CPTPP. The new Labour government has not tried to bend back the arc. The United States is on a similar trajectory. Trump also spurns Big Government and bureaucratic multinational agencies. Like Thatcher almost 40 years ago—but much more vehemently—he has criticized other NATO countries for spending far too little on defense—a constant gripe of U.S. presidents, especially Dwight Eisenhower and Ronald Reagan. Trump’s associates readily criticized certain European countries for abandoning basic Western values, such as adopting free speech, abolishing secure national borders, and letting in gangsters and fanatical Jihadis who unleash terrorist attacks on innocent citizens. Trump also thinks all these are happening in the United States. The Russia–Ukraine war has caused rifts between Trump and other NATO members. He wants the war to end so that Washington can “pivot” to the Indo–Pacific to squarely face the “pacing threat” of communist China, which he, since his first term, has rightly regarded as America’s major adversary. So, almost simultaneously, the two major English-speaking countries, the United States and the UK, are extricating themselves from entanglements in Europe and reaching out to Asia. Their “leaving Europe to enter Asia” is going full circle from the time when Japan’s most famous 19th century reformist, Fukuzawa Yukichi, advocated the opposite, “leaving Asia to enter Europe” (1885), under very different circumstances. If U.S. Commodore Matthew Perry’s arrival in Tokugawa Japan in 1853 and World War II marked the first and second historic coming of America to Asia, respectively, then the “Trump pivot” may well be the third. It could add enormously to the prosperity in Indo–Pacific Ex-China, for two reasons. First, as the U.S.–China decoupling continues, much American money leaving China will go into other Indo–Pacific economies. Second, when greater American military might, coupled with increased defense spending and capabilities in East Asian countries, is realized under Trump’s pressures, it will be deployed to contain the Chinese regime and achieve greater regional stability, and new investment money will arrive with more confidence. But then what about Europe, which the United States and perhaps Britain are leaving behind? It will do fine, but in a previously unexpected way. This will be the scenario: Trump 2.0 will continue to goad Europe to pony up for its own defense, necessarily at the expense of its welfare state, climate policy, and open borders, and damage the transatlantic relationship if it must. Trump will be much maligned in the process. For example, a recent BBC article accused the U.S. president of “blow[ing] up the world order.” But that is sheer Eurocentrism, because Trump is merely resetting Washington’s relationship with Europe and Europe is not the whole world. In fact, there are good signs that Europe is reacting to Trump in a healthy way; for example, the newly elected German leader has decided that Germany must spend huge amounts in upgrading its military, notwithstanding that it necessarily will have to cut welfare spending and retune its growth model. Expectedly, when Europe is strong and wholesome again, Trump will be gone from the stage and his successors will be able to mend fences with all obstacles removed. At that point, the world will still be essentially bipolar: the open society camp versus the authoritarian-or-worse camp. There will be two main theaters where the conflict between the two camps will be played out. First is Asia, in which the United States—rid of its European baggage and in some kind of alliance with Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and Australia—will face off against the Chinese regime. The mightiest power on Earth will try to roll back and contain the most dangerous. Next is Europe, where a reformed and repowered European Union will take on Russia. A second-rate power will try to keep a third-rate one in check. It will be a much more rational conflict configuration and manageable division of labor for the West than it is now. Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 22:35
Flying Taxis Officially Lift Off - But Only In China, Thank Biden's FAA
1743646200 from ZEROHEDGE
Flying Taxis Officially Lift Off - But Only In China, Thank Biden's FAA China's drone taxi industry officially lifted off this week, as EHang Holdings and Hefei Hey Airlines became the first companies to receive certifications from the Civil Aviation Administration of China to launch autonomous flying drones for commercial taxi use. This development comes as China pulls ahead of the US drone industry—amid recent comments by Andreessen Horowitz's Marc Andreessen, who noted that the Biden-Harris administration's FAA slowed the US drone industry. It raises the question: Did the previous administration's FAA deliberately slow America's drone industry, allowing China to gain a strategic edge? The South China Morning Post reported that China's low-altitude economy has officially lifted off. EHang and Hefei Hey are dominating the skies with eVTOL (electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing) taxi drones that can reach altitudes of 10,000 feet and transport two passengers across town. "This marks the beginning of China's low-altitude human-carrying flight era, allowing the public to book flights for low-altitude tourism, urban sightseeing, and more in Guangzhou and Hefei," EHang stated on X, adding, "With this certification, EHang becomes the world's first eVTOL company to achieve the full suite of regulatory approvals, paving the way for large-scale commercialization of autonomous aerial mobility." 🚀 EHang’s EH216-S eVTOL Operators Obtain Air Operator Certificates ✈️ EHang’s EH216-S eVTOL operators, EHang General Aviation and Heyi Aviation, have officially received China’s first-ever Air Operator Certificates (OC) for civil pilotless human-carrying aerial vehicles by the… pic.twitter.com/jqX74ETR8A — EHang (@ehang) March 30, 2025 China-based journalist Li Zexin commented on the development: "China is at the forefront of the world's 4th Industrial Revolution." China has officially entered the era of "flying taxis". 2 Chinese companies have obtained the commercial operation certificate for autonomous passenger drones from CAAC. China is at the forefront of the world's 4th Industrial Revolution. pic.twitter.com/POFiLTs3I1 — Li Zexin (@XH_Lee23) March 31, 2025 Meanwhile, Marc Andreessen told the host of Uncommon Knowledge, Peter Robinson (former Reagan speechwriter), earlier this year that: We have a drone company that's been trying to compete with the Chinese company. Number one, the Biden FAA has been trying to kill us this entire time, trying to do all kinds of things to make sure that American drone companies can't succeed as part of their war on tech. It's literally just another in the long list of ways that they've been just trying to absolutely kill us. 🚨 NEW: Marc Andreessen on China's manufacturing dominance "There's three industries that follow phones that the Chinese own the global market at: 1) Drones Something over 90% of all the consumer drones are made in China. Which is what the US Military also uses. It's the whole… pic.twitter.com/e94C927MMU — Autism Capital 🧩 (@AutismCapital) January 15, 2025 Why on Earth would the Biden administration weaponize the FAA to slow down America's drone industry? The answer might be found here. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 22:10
Supreme Court Upholds Biden-Era Rule On Regulation Of "Ghost Guns"
1743644700 from ZEROHEDGE
Supreme Court Upholds Biden-Era Rule On Regulation Of "Ghost Guns" Via American Greatness, The U.S. Supreme Court has upheld a Biden administration rule on federal regulation of so-called “ghost guns” which are unserialized parts or kits that can be assembled into completed firearms. The 7-2 decision on Wednesday was written by Justice Neil Gorsuch and upholds the rule for continued regulation by the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) as well as opening the door to requiring background checks and age verification in order to purchase the kits. Gun control advocates and regulators have been strongly opposed to the kits, which some have dubbed as “ghost guns” due to the fact that they allowed buyers to complete the assembly of the firearm at home without having to make the purchase through a federally licensed dealer. Supporters of gun control have claimed that the firearms are nearly untraceable, making it more difficult for law enforcement to connect them to a specific individual. In the ruling, Gorsuch wrote, “Some home hobbyists enjoy assembling them. But criminals also find them attractive.” According to the Associated Press, the rule passed under the Biden administration requires companies to treat the kits like other firearms by adding serial numbers, running background checks and verifying that buyers are age 21 or older. Sellers of the parts kits had challenged the rule, arguing that a collection of parts was not a firearm and therefore was not subject to the Gun Control Act of 1968. The 5th Circuit Court of Appeals based in Louisiana agreed with them and struck down the ATF ghost gun rule. Today’s ruling overturned that 5th Circuit decision. Second Amendment advocates are expressing disappointment at the decision but also acknowledge that in the era of 3D printing, federal regulators are facing an increasingly impossible task when it comes to gun control. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 21:45
Washington Sheriff Won't Allow Non-Citizens To Work As Police Officers, Despite Political Pressure
1743643200 from ZEROHEDGE
Washington Sheriff Won't Allow Non-Citizens To Work As Police Officers, Despite Political Pressure A state county sheriff in Washington may be the only person left in the state with common sense. He is rejecting a new state senate bill that would allow non-citizens to serve in public roles such as police officers, judges, and teachers, according to Breitbart. Sheriff Keith Swank Despite unanimous support in the legislature, Pierce County Sheriff Keith Swank said he won’t comply. “I have a problem with non-citizens being cops and arresting our citizens in Pierce County. Therefore, we’re not going to hire non-citizens for the Pierce County Sheriff’s Office,” he told KIRO-TV. Washington’s SB5068, which would allow non-citizens with federal work authorization—including DACA recipients—to serve as police, judges, and other public officials, passed the state senate unanimously in February. All 30 Democrats backed it, but notably, so did all 19 Republicans. Supporters argue there’s no difference between non-citizens in the military and in law enforcement, but Sheriff Keith Swank disagrees. [ZH: Aaaand of course they locked down their accout] SB5068: Allowing non-citizens to be police, prosecutors, judges, firefighters, teachers, etc... WAS UNANIMOUSLY APPROVED BY LEGISLATORS [INCLUDING ALL REPUBLICANS]... Maybe @WAGOP can take a crack at explaining this to REPUBLICAN CONSTITUENTS? Roll Call Public employ.… pic.twitter.com/jpjgdtlFz1 — Outrage PNW (@OutragePNW) March 27, 2025 “There’s a difference between law enforcement and the military. In law enforcement, we arrest people. We take away their constitutional rights. We lock them up in jail. We don’t use our military to do that,” he said. Legislators claim the bill addresses Washington’s police shortage, but Swank isn’t buying it. “The real problem is the reason it’s hard to hire people in Washington State… Cops don’t want to work here when they’re afraid to do something they might be put in prison for,” he said. The bill passed out of a House committee 6–3 and is headed for a full House vote. * * * Best sellers at ZH Store: IQ Biologix Colostrum (25% IgG from first milking of grassfed cows) IQ Astaxanthin Ultimate Antioxidant (6,000x stronger than vitamin C) ZeroHedge Multitool (Extremely solid, very sharp, comes with ZH Logo belt pouch) Anza Red-Black Infinity Handle Knife (Made in the USA from carbon steel) Click picture, check out knife... * * * Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 21:20
Futures Tumble As President Trump Delivers "Declaration Of Economic Independence"
1743640800 from ZEROHEDGE
Futures Tumble As President Trump Delivers "Declaration Of Economic Independence" Update (1630ET): “Well we have some very, very good news today,” Trump began his address exclaiming that “This is Liberation Day.” “April 2, 2025, will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America’s destiny was reclaimed and the day that we began to make America wealthy again,” Trump says. “For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike. American steel workers, auto workers, farmers and skilled craftsmen -- we have a lot of them here with us today. They really suffered gravely.” “In a few moments, I will sign a historic Executive Order, reciprocal tariffs on countries throughout the world. Reciprocal. That means they do it to us and we do it to them. Very simple. Can’t get any simpler than that.” Trump lays out his theory that tariffs will bring back a “golden age” for the US, a phrase he also used in his inaugural address: “Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country, and you see it happening already. We will supercharge our domestic industrial base.” Trump says the reciprocal tariffs will bring “stronger competition and lower prices for consumers” in the US. Finally, Trump announces his tariff plan details as a "Declaration Of Economic Independence" Specifically, Trump announced a baseline tariff rate of 10% for all countries (below the 15% consensus and 20% worst case) beginning April 5th. Trump confirmed the 25% tariff on all auto imports. BUT, specific reciprocal tariffs for 'bad actors' starting on April 9th. Additionally, Trump said they will not be full reciprocal tariffs, then held a chart up showing the individual nation (trade-weighted average) tariff levels: Here is the full list: Here are some specifics: China: 34% (which is on top of the current 20% tariff, meaning a total 54% tariff) EU: 20% Japan: 24% UK: 10% South Korea: 25% Thailand: 36% Switzerland: 31% Taiwan: 32% Malaysia: 24% Here are the hardest hit nations: Iraq 39% Mauritius 40% Syria 41% Falkland Islands 41% Vietnam: 46% Madagascar 47% Laos 48% Cambodia 49% Lesotho 50% Saint Pierre & Miquelon 50% Mexico and Canada are not on the list as US will continue to exempt USMCA-compliant goods. For Canada and Mexico, the existing fentanyl/migration IEEPA orders remain in effect, and are unaffected by this order. This means USMCA compliant goods will continue to see a 0% tariff, non-USMCA compliant goods will see a 25% tariff, and non-USMCA compliant energy and potash will see a 10% tariff. In the event the existing fentanyl/migration IEEPA orders are terminated, USMCA compliant goods would continue to receive preferential treatment, while non-USMCA compliant goods would be subject to a 12% reciprocal tariff. The Loonie and the Peso rallied on the news... Some goods will not be subject to the Reciprocal Tariff. These include: (1) articles subject to 50 USC 1702(b); (2) steel/aluminum articles and autos/auto parts already subject to Section 232 tariffs; (3) copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber articles; (4) all articles that may become subject to future Section 232 tariffs; (5) bullion; and (6) energy and other certain minerals that are not available in the United States. Initially markets heard Trump's comments as 'better than expected' and futures spiked on the news, but then as he showed the chart of specific tariffs, futures plunged... Treasury yields also tumbled, erasing the day's spike higher... “If you want your tariff rate to be zero, then you build your product right here in America, because there is no tariff if you build your plant, your product in America,” Trump said, concluding: “Likewise to all of the foreign presidents, prime ministers, kings, queens, ambassadors and everyone else who will soon be calling to ask for exemptions from these tariffs, I say terminate your own tariffs, drop your barriers, don’t manipulate your currencies." The White House issued a full Fact Sheet here... “These tariffs will remain in effect until such a time as President Trump determines that the threat posed by the trade deficit and underlying nonreciprocal treatment is satisfied, resolved, or mitigated.” And cue the negotiations... Adam Hetts, global head of multi-asset at Janus Henderson, suggests this is the opening salvo for negotiations and the question is how much economic pain Trump is willing to tolerate: “Eye-watering tariffs on a country-by-country basis scream ‘negotiation tactic,’ which will keep markets on edge for the foreseeable future. Fortunately, this means there’s substantial room for lower tariffs from here, albeit with a 10% baseline in place. We’ve seen the administration have a surprisingly high tolerance for market pain, now the big question is how much tolerance it has for true economic pain as negotiations unfold.” Treasury Secretary Bessent appeared on Bloomberg TV with a simple message to the world: Don’t panic, don’t retaliate “As long as you don’t retaliate, this is the high end of the number,” he says. * * * Best sellers at ZH Store: IQ Biologix Colostrum (25% IgG from first milking of grassfed cows) IQ Astaxanthin Ultimate Antioxidant (6,000x stronger than vitamin C) ZeroHedge Multitool (Extremely solid, very sharp, comes with ZH Logo belt pouch) Anza Red-Black Infinity Handle Knife (Made in the USA from carbon steel) Click picture, check out knife... * * * "This is the moment... this is the time..." Trump's Jekyll & Hyde tariff-ing plans are finally to be announced ("We are going to be very nice by comparison to what they were" vs “We’ve been taken advantage of for 40 years, maybe more, and it’s just not going to happen anymore.") As Trump discusses reciprocal tariffs (and the legacy media claims he is 'punishing allies') keep this chart in mind - does that seem like 'free trade'? The three main things to watch for when Trump starts speaking are as follows (h/t Goldman Sachs' Brian Garrett) What is the full list of countries included in the measures (19 is bogey) What is the magnitude for average reciprocal tariff (GS econ expects avg 15% when weighted by US imports – this would be a negative surprise) Confirmation of the planned timeline for implementation (the shorter the period, the more hawkish the read thru - and for now 'immediate effect' is expected) Watch President Trump deliver his remarks in his 'Make America Wealth Again' event and answer questions here (due to start at 1600ET): * * * Update (0805ET): As the clock ticks down to today's 4pm announcement of "across the board" tariffs on a subset of nations, speculation about the size and scope of the new rules is rife with many nations already threatening "proportionate" responses: USTR reportedly prepares a new tariff option for US President Trump which is "an across-the-board tariff on a subset of nations that likely would not be as high as the 20% universal tariff option", according to WSJ. US President Trump's tariff plans are "coming down to the wire" with his team reportedly still finalising the size and scope of the new levies, according to Bloomberg. US Treasury Secretary Bessent told lawmakers that Wednesday's tariffs are a 'cap', according to a CNBC reporter cited by Reuters. On UK-US tariffs, "Sounds like any hopes of a last-ditch concession from Donald Trump ahead of his tariffs announcement are fading", according to Times' Swinford; although a deal could be signed as soon as next week "Keir Starmer is not planning to speak to him today, but there are hopes that the economic deal giving Britain a carve-out can be signed as soon as next week. Sources talking about 'days or weeks'" "But in truth No 10 doesn't know what Trump is planning or when concessions could be made. All deeply uncertain this morning". Canada is to avoid counter-tariffs that risk Canadian jobs and price hikes and it won't impose retaliation tariffs on most US food and other basic necessities, according to the Globe and Mail citing two federal trade advisers. Thai Commerce Ministry said Thai semiconductors may face 25% US tariffs and noted that Thai tariffs are 11% higher than US tariffs, while it added Thailand may see an impact of USD 7bln-8bln from US reciprocal tariffs but announced it will increase imports of US goods and plans tariff cuts for US products. French Industry Minister reaffirms that Europe will respond to Trump tariffs in a proportionate manner; says Europe must show strength and be less naive The irony, of course, is that if Trump unveils 'reciprocal' tariffs - mirroring the tariffs being put on US exports - any retaliatory response by a foreign nation cannot be proportionate by its nature. Any response is escalatory as the US is merely 'catching up' to the tariffs being put on its own goods. Bloomberg reports that Trump is considering three options: 1) a blanket 20% tariff on all imports; 2) a tiered system with three different rate levels; 3) a country-by-country rate model. White House spokesperson Leavitt said new duties are effective immediately which feels less ideal vs a delayed start (no time for negotiations). * * * Update (8:45pm ET): With just hours to go until Trump's "Liberation day" announcement, things remain... fluid. Bloomberg reports that Trump’s deliberations over his plans to impose reciprocal tariffs are coming down to the wire, with his team said to be still finalizing the size and scope of the new levies he is slated to unveil on Wednesday afternoon. As a reminder, Peter Navarro said that Trump wants to raise $700 billion annually in tariff revenue. In meetings on Tuesday, Trump’s team continued to hash out their options ahead of a Rose Garden event scheduled to begin as US markets close at 4 p.m. on Wednesday. The White House has not reached a firm decision on their tariff plan, even though Trump himself said earlier in the week that he had “settled” on an approach. Several proposals are said to be under consideration, including a tiered tariff system with a set of flat rates for countries, as well as a more customized reciprocal plan. Under the first option, countries would see their goods face levies at either a 10% or 20% rate depending on their tariff and non-tariff barriers on US goods. Under the two-tiered approach, the highest levies would be applied to the countries perceived as the biggest offenders, both in terms of true tariffs as well as easily quantifiable non-tariff measures that act to deter US imports. Trump’s White House this week has complained about the trade practices of the EU, Japan, India and Canada, for example. Another approach would see the US applying individualized reciprocal rates, tailored to countries based on their existing levies and non-tariff barriers. This approach was publicly signaled for weeks but some recent deliberations suggest it’s no longer the main focus. There’s also been discussion of a return to Trump’s original proposal: a flat global tariff, which would apply evenly to trillions of imports. And the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump was considering a more targeted plan that would apply a tariff of less than 20% to a narrower section of countries. With less than 24 hours to go until Trump’s announcement, companies, countries and the lobbyists paid to influence the president’s agenda tried to find out final details of the plan, only to learn there aren't any final details yet. Amid the continuing barrage of trial balloons, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump aides were studying a more targeted option, while Fox News said Tuesday that Trump was also still considering a flat 20% global tariff. Amid all the speculation, the White House on Tuesday stayed silent on the details of Trump’s plan, ahead of the president’s formal announcement, while Leavitt told reporters on Tuesday that Trump was “with his trade and tariff team right now perfecting it to make sure this is a perfect deal for the American people and the American worker.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told lawmakers that the tariffs would be a cap. reflecting the highest levels they’ll go, with countries then able to take steps to bring rates down, Representative Kevin Hern, an Oklahoma Republican, told CNBC. Earlier Tuesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that the tariffs would take immediate effect but that Trump was open to subsequent negotiation. “Certainly, the president is always up to take a phone call, always up for a good negotiation,” she said. The late-hour movement signaled that the scope and details of the long-promised announcement are shifting even as the pageantry of the event — dubbed a “Make America Wealthy Again” celebration — comes into focus. Trump said Monday he had made a decision “actually a long time ago,” but didn’t reveal it. Leavitt reiterated that claim, though the White House declined to weigh in on various proposals said to be under consideration. A spokesman did not immediately reply to requests for further comment Tuesday. Other key questions swirl, like the fate of tariffs already applied to China, Canada and Mexico, and clawed back partially for the latter two. The White House has not said whether those would be replaced by Trump’s Wednesday announcement, or whether his move to exempt goods traded under the continental trade pact might also be extended somehow to the new levies. The president has also promised coming tariffs on key sectors including pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and lumber. * * * * * There is just over 24 hours left until President Trump unveils the specifics of his "Liberation day" from global trade barriers at 3pm on Wednesday, and with markets obsessing over what the president will and will not say, we are starting a rolling blog which will be updated for all major developments. We begin with the known-knowns ahead of tomorrow's big reveal: Reciprocal Tariffs – President Trump said on Sunday that the reciprocal tariffs he is set to announce will include all nations, not just a smaller group of 10-15 countries with the largest trade imbalances. The White House has yet to outline what tariffs are coming up, how these will be calculated or what countries will need to do to secure exemptions. The President also mentioned that these tariffs will account for other countries’ non-tariff barriers, though he has also not went into detail on how these calculations will be conducted. Regarding exemptions, President Trump said in an interview with Newsmax that he plans to limit exceptions – though the mention of potentially giving a lot of countries “breaks” last Monday at the White House has led to a steam of talks with the US (EU, India among the names of countries mentioned) regarding concessions. One potential twist is that overnight we got a USTR trade barrier report (not the official tariffs but its lists hundred of barriers to US exports) where this part stands out: “the USTR report did not specify VATs as trade barriers in its discussion of EU policies, focusing instead on digital services taxes and the bloc's new carbon border adjustment mechanism.” (RTRS) According to Goldman, goal posts have moved rapidly to 15%+ on EU tariffs and yesterday's discussions were around the rather substantial tail risk that reciprocal VAT tariffs would mean (38%). Comments from Trump suggest a lighter touch on tariffs although without context it’s unclear what this might mean. Goldman concludes that "with risk premia having been built up the default direction will be a relief rally/vol compression (the sustainability of which will be more about US economy)." Automobile Tariffs – As per the White House Fact Sheet, the 25% tariff will be applied to imported passenger vehicles (sedans, SUVs, crossovers, minivans, cargo vans) and light trucks, as well as key automobile parts (engines, transmissions, powertrain parts, and electrical components), with processes to expand tariffs on additional parts if necessary. Importers of automobiles under the USMCA will be given the opportunity to certify their U.S. content and systems will be implemented such that the 25% tariff will only apply to the value of their non-U.S. content. Tariffs on vehicles are set to take effect on 3Apr and certain auto parts no later than 3May. Tariffs on countries importing Venuzuelan Oil – President Trump has issued an executive order declaring that any country buying oil or gas from Venezuela will pay a 25% tariff on trades with the U.S., and also extended a deadline (27 May) for Chevron to wind down operations. China, Spain, Brazil, Turkey, India, Italy, Cuba are among the countries that could be affected by this. In particular, China is Venezuela’s largest oil buyer (~55%). Goldman's research desk highlights that this will pose a significant risk for China – if this was to materialize, it will raise the total US effective tariff rate on China close to 60%. Sectoral Tariffs – President Trump also plans to impose tax additional tariffs to target specific industries including pharmaceutical drugs, copper and lumber. LATEST NEWS: US Treasury Secretary Bessent said President Trump will announce reciprocal tariffs at 15:00EDT/20:00BST on Wednesday. White House Press Secretary Leavitt stated there will be a Rose Garden event on Wednesday for the Trump tariff plan and that Trump is committed to sectoral tariffs. White House spokesperson said no exemptions at this time when asked about tariff exemptions for farmers and any country that has treated the US unfairly should expect to receive a tariff. White House aides have drafted a proposal to impose tariffs of around 20% (prev. touted 15%) on at least most imports to the United States, according to WaPo sources. Several options are on the table and no final decision has been made. One option would raise import duties on products from virtually every country, rejecting more targeted approaches. If combined with additional tariffs on sectors such as automobile and pharmaceutical imports, raise more than USD 6tln. Administration officials are also discussing using this revenue to finance a tax rebate or dividend payment to most Americans; planning is "highly preliminary". The White House is also still considering an order that would apply a different tariff rate to individual countries. US President Trump said we will see tariff details maybe Tuesday night or on Wednesday which are going to be nice in comparison to other countries and in some cases, they may be substantially lower. Trump also stated that many countries have been looting the US and they will stop that on April 2nd, as well as noted there will be investments worth USD 5tln in the US. Furthermore, he stated that TikTok is not tied to a larger tariff deal but could be. US President Trump is said to be still deciding which plan he will take for reciprocal tariffs and has been presented with "multiple" tariff plans, according to administration sources cited by FBN's Lawrence, while sources said Trump will likely not make the decision on which plan until right before April 2nd or on that morning. Reminder: Weekend reports suggested US President Trump is said to be pushing senior advisers to go bigger on tariff policy as they prepare for Liberation Day’ on April 2nd and reportedly revived the idea of a flat universal tariff single rate on most imports, according to Washington Post. It was also noted that the option viewed as most likely, publicly outlined by Treasury Secretary Bessent this month, would set tariffs on products from the 15% of countries the administration deems the worst US trading partners which account for almost 90% of imports. Europe: EU is mulling targeting big US tech firms in response to Trump tariffs, via WaPo citing sources/officials; one official suggested that the bloc could unite on "some partial measures against American services". France is reportedly pushing for a tougher response which includes digital services. Other nations such as Italy remain opposed believing it will only cause further US escalation. "European officials cautioned that there is no agreed-on hit list of digital services." "European officials concede that measures against companies like Google (GOOGL) or Meta (META) could escalate the trade war, but they say Trump has shifted the goalposts." "European officials are also discussing possible trade concessions"; could be willing to reverse some of the countermeasures announced after the US' aluminium/steel tariffs. WaPo reminds us that the bloc has already signalled a willingness to reduce the 10% tariff on US autos and increase the purchase of US-made LNG. MORGAN STANLEY ON THE RECIPROCITY PRINCIPLE (KEY TAKEAWAYS) Tariffs appear likely to head higher, on a number of trading partners: The Trump administration said it plans to increase tariff levels after taking into account three key factors to rectify what it perceives as unfair trade relationships: 1) product-level tariff differentials; 2) VAT differentials; and 3) a subjective "unfair trading practices." We expect that the numbers revealed as a product of that assessment on April 2 will likely be a maximalist starting point, rather than ending point, for tariff levels. April 2 should provide some clarity on the path, but we expect that not all of our questions will be answered by then: Two principles guide our rationale: The comprehensive review promised by the president is broad and complex, requiring months of investigation on a product-by-product basis, and we expect negotiations can potentially reduce levels from the stated starting point when this review concludes. Hence, April 2 is more likely a starting point than an ending point for implementation. Key products in the EU, as well as broader Chinese imports, are likely to see increases...: When evaluating imports across the country-level criteria the administration has laid out as well as where the largest tariff differentials are, certain sectors stand out in particular, like EU autos. ...While Mexico, Canada, and certain products from countries in the EU appear more likely to avoid tariffs through negotiation. We see potential for more negotiation with countries that score low across the metrics that the administration has cited as important inputs to that April 2 evaluation, as well as those that Trump has signaled a willingness to negotiate with or countries for which tariffs are explicitly tied to a policy goal (like immigration/fentanyl). Importantly, Morgan Stanley has low conviction in this path, and sees several plausible alternatives. More aggressive, and faster, tariff implementation is possible, as well as the inverse, given the president's wide discretion and authority on this matter. Mapping out current & expected tariffs on two vectors: relative level of conviction, and expected duration/potential for an off-ramp Morgan Stanley incorporates "reciprocal tariffs" into that base case: The administration has stated it plans to review tariff rates on a country-by-country basis, taking into account a variety of other trade-related factors (some more subjective than others), culminating in an aggregate number (or tariff level) that Commerce Secretary Lutnick intends to present to the president April 1, to be publicly released on April 2. This to us signals that the administration is planning to engage in a broad-based retooling of its trading relationships, grounded in matching tariff rates but incorporating a number of other factors like existing trade deficit, VAT differentials, and non-tariff barriers to trade (including subsidies). Hence, while the short-term policy goals might align with one of the two objectives we lay out, undertaking a country-by-country review of existing trade relationships grounded in tariff reciprocity reflects, in our view, a longer-term commitment to de-risking and retooling trade policy. Various third parties have assessed how high tariffs could go as a result of this review: the Yale Budget Lab, for example, sees the policy change resulting in an incremental 13ppt hike to tariffs on China vs. 16ppt on Mexico and 17ppt on India. Given the relatively high VAT in Europe, the tariff rate goes up by even more in the UK, Denmark/Sweden, and Hungary: 20ppt, 25ppt, and 27ppt, respectively. More in the full Morgan Stanley reciprocity analysis available here to pro subs. JPM TARIFF SCENARIO ANALYSIS 10% TARIFF – assuming a 10% blanket tariff that also cancels/replaces Can/Mexico tariffs but not China: SPX +2 - +2.5%. 10Y yield higher by ~10bps. EUR/USD falls to 1.06 – 1.07 (currently 1.08). 25% TARIFF – SPX falls 1.25% - 1.75%. 10Y yield declines 12-14bps. EUR/USD lower as USD behaves as a safety haven, with EUR/USD falling to 1.03 – 1.05 35% TARIFF – SPX falls 2% - 3%. 10Y yield falls 20bps. EUR/USD falls to 1.01 – 1.03. On EU sectors vs. tariffs, JPM expect: EU Pharma: Potential US tariffs expected to have a manageable impact, though many questions remain unanswered around key details. Global Spirits: Financial impact likely to be substantial, ranging JPME 8-48% on annual EBIT. Believe mitigation through pricing will be limited, given sector has already derated YTD < asymmetric risk rewards if tariffs delayed/scrapped. EU Autos: If tariffs go ahead, on avg. c. 25% earnings cut to its FY25 estimates for German OEMs and Stellantis. JPM add this is the lower bound of impact. Overall, JPM remain tactically bearish. Market Impact WHAT DOES A GOOD OUTCOME LOOK LIKE – A low (10% or less) blanket tariff that does not include VAT with a stated willingness to discuss sectoral tariffs which include 25% on aluminum/steel, 25% on Autos, 200% on Champagne/wine from the EU, and potentially 25% on Chips and Pharmaceuticals. Further, avoiding tariffs on shipping vessels would be a positive. WHAT DOES A BAD OUTCOME LOOK LIKE – A higher than expected blanket tariff, which includes VAT, plus additional sectoral tariffs. Further, any bans on sales or the implementation of fines/tariffs on shipping vessels would be a materially worse outcome, e.g., a full ban on chip sales to China. According to Bloomberg, NVDA received ~17% of its FY24 revenue from China. Likely Tariff Levels (per JPMorgan) CANADA / MEXICO – JPM does not think that we see additional tariffs mentioned, instead sticking with the 25% tariffs that were delayed. CHINA – currently, the tariff level is 20% but given that China consumes Venezuelan oil, that adds another 25%. A deal on TikTok could reduce these levels, but that announcement may be on/before the current April 5 deadline to sell or restrict TikTok. EU – while Trump had mentioned 25%, Bloomberg reported last week that the EU planned concessions for Trump so this could mean a lower rate in the 10% - 15% range. JAPAN – given the willingness to negotiation and to add further investment in the US, it seems possible that Japan receives a lower rate, perhaps lower than the EU, say 10%. JPM's proposed Monetization Menu: Country-Level: we look at Australia, Japan, and the UK as being relative safety havens. China may work, too, given the potential to add fiscal stimulus but that is a lower conviction long. US Sector Level: Energy and Utilities (ex-AI plays) are the two best longs and look for Lower-Income Discretionary and higher beta TMT plays as being among the more consensus shorts. Separately, parts of Fins (GSIBs, Insurance, Payment Processors) could be safety havens. FICC: Look for Credit to outperform Equities on the move lower. We like precious metals, crude, and natgas as longs. Overall, JPM remain tactically bearish: "Policy uncertainty is the dominant factor in the markets and that neither the Trump Put nor Fed Put activate in the near-term." Further, they see downward pressure on the soft economic data though hard data is likely to remain resilient, potentially putting a floor on the next US downdraft. That said, one potential event that could break the bearish outlook is the announcement of a trade deal, or framework of one, with a G7 country ahead of the announcement, e.g. US/UK deal could allow the market to look through tariffs on places such as the EU and/or Japan. More in the full JPMorgan secnario analysis available here to pro subs. WEEKEND HEADLINES US Broader Tariffs US President Trump is said to be pushing senior advisers to go bigger on tariff policy as they prepare for ‘Liberation Day’ on April 2nd and reportedly revived the idea of a flat universal tariff single rate on most imports, according to Washington Post. It was also noted that the option viewed as most likely, publicly outlined by Treasury Secretary Bessent this month, would set tariffs on products from the 15% of countries the administration deems the worst US trading partners which account for almost 90% of imports. US President Trump said he will hit essentially all countries that they're talking about with tariffs this week and commented that there will be a deal on TikTok before the deadline, according to Reuters. US President Trump’s closest allies including Vice President Vance, Chief of Staff Wiles and cabinet officials have privately indicated they are unsure exactly what President Trump will do during the April 2nd announcement of global tariffs, according to Politico. US Auto Tariffs US President Trump’s recent 25% auto tariff announcement made no mention of USMCA trade deal side letters shielding Canada and Mexico from potential auto tariffs which showed Canada and Mexico were each granted annual duty-free import quotas of 2.6mln cars and unlimited light trucks if Trump imposed global tariffs. Furthermore, Canada said it fully expects the US to honor the 2018 tariff pledges and it reserves the right to take retaliatory measures, while Mexico is evaluating the legal implications of the agreement on Trump's ‘Section 232’ auto tariff probe. US President Trump’s Trade Adviser Navarro said auto tariffs will raise about $100BN and the other tariffs are to raise about $600BN a year, according to a Fox interview. UK UK PM Starmer spoke with US President Trump on Sunday evening in which they discussed productive negotiations between their respective teams on a UK-US economic prosperity deal and agreed that these will continue at pace this week. It was also reported that UK Home Secretary Cooper refused to rule out retaliating to US tariffs on cars and steel, according to Bloomberg. France French Ministry of Foreign Trade said France and Europe will defend their businesses, consumers and values, while it added that US interference in the inclusion policies of French companies is unacceptable. French Commerce Minister reiterated that France would implement reciprocal tariffs if the US goes ahead with its tariff measures this week. Hoping to avoid a trade war. The Minister intends to have talks with the US Embassy in Paris to voice opposition to the US' order for French firms to comply with a diversity band. Germany German Chancellor Scholz said they stand by Canada’s side and that Canada is not a state that belongs to anyone else, while he added that Europe’s goal is cooperation but the EU will respond as one if the US leaves them with no choice such as with tariffs on steel and aluminium. China China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi said higher US tariffs on Chinese goods are unreasonable and harm global markets. (Comments made in China's Tuesday session). LatAm Brazil’s President Lula said he will negotiate on tariffs before retaliating, according to Bloomberg. It was also reported that Brazil’s Finance Minister Haddad said the country is in a privileged position to withstand the trade war with the commodity exporter’s links to China, the US and the EU to shield it from Drotectionism. accordina to FT OTHER RECENT HEADLINES 28th March EU plans concessions for Trump after reciprocal tariffs hit, according to Bloomberg sources Chinese State Media says China will "certainly respond with countermeasures if the US insists on harming China's interests regarding the April 2nd tariffs"; if they want to discuss cooperation with China, mutual respect is a prerequisite. US President Trump and Canada PM Camey held a very constructive phone call, according to both sides; Camey told Trump he will implement retaliatory tariffs. US President Trump says will be announcing pharma tariffs soon; is willing to make deals on tariffs, deals on averting auto tariffs would come later. 27th March US President Trump posted on Truth "If the European Union works with Canada in order to do economic harm to the USA, large scale Tariffs, far larger than currently planned, will be placed on them both" Canadian PM Carney says its response to these latest tariffs is to fight; they will fight the US tariffs with retaliatory trade actions of its own; clear US is no longer a reliable partner 26th March US President Trump may implement copper tariffs within weeks, according to Bloomberg The US will reportedly not take all non-tariff barriers (e g. VAT) in determining reciprocal Tariff rates, according to CNBC EU Top Trade Negotiator Sefcovic expects US President Trump to hit the bloc with tariffs of about 20% next week, via FT EU expects Trump to set flat, double-digit tariff on April 2nd, according to Politico; According to two diplomats, suggested the tariff rate applied to the EU could be as high as 20 or 25% US President Trump considers more limited tariff plans, automotive tariffs could be narrowed and reciprocal tariffs lowered in latest administration proposals, via WSJ US President Trump announces to impose 25% tariffs on all cars not made in the US, while he said they will be doing tariffs on pharmaceuticals and tariffs on lumber China's Vice Premier He Lifeng spoke with USTR's Greer by video call, via Xinhua; Both sides had candid and in depth exchange of views on economy and trade. China expressed solemn concerns on US tariffs and planned reciprocal tariffs. 25th March India is reportedly open to cutting tariffs on over half of US imports, worth USD 23bln, via Reuters citing sources; open to cutting tariffs to as low as 0 from a 5- 30% range on 55% of US imports India proposes to remove the 6% tariff imposed on online advertisement services offered by companies such as Google (GOOG) and Meta (META), known widely as the Google tax, from April 1st which is a day before Trump's reciprocal tariffs take effect. US President Trump considers a two-step tariff regime on April 2nd, according to FT; Possible phased approach to new US levies reflects debate over trade strategy within administration. US President Trump says he has April 2nd tariffs set, and he has been fair to countries that abused US for many decades 24th March: Trump implements secondary tariff on Venezuela; anyone who buys oil/gas from Venezuela will face an additional 25% tariff on all US trade. US President Trump says they will be announcing tariffs on autos, aluminium and pharmaceuticals in the very near future. Trump says he will announce additional tariffs over the next few days on autos, lumber, and chips Trump says he may give a lot of countries breaks on tariffs. 22nd March (weekend) President Donald Trump's coming wave of tariffs is poised to be more targeted than the barrage he has occasionally threatened, aides and allies say, a potential relief for markets gripped by anxiety about an all-out tariff war. (Bloomberg) 21st March France reportedly to float using EU's most powerful trade tool on US, according to Bloomberg US President Trump says there will be flexibility on tariffs, basically it's reciprocal; they can't be expected to carry Canada. UK government reportedly considering plans to reduce or even abolish its digital services tax before April 2nd, via Bloomberg. 20th March US President Trump says he believes India is probably going to be lowering tariffs substantially but on April 2nd, we will be charging them the same tariffs they charge us EU's Trade Commissioner Sefcovic says the Commission is considering delaying first set of counter-tariffs against the US to mid-April 19th March US President Trump's aides are planning new tariffs on “trillions" more in imports on April 2nd, according to WaPo EU is reportedly to tighten steel import quotas as of April 1st, via Reuters citing sources; to reduce inflows by 15% 18th March US President Trump's team reportedly explored a simplified plan for reciprocal tariffs in which they recently debated sorting trading partners into one of three tiers instead of equalising tariff rates with every nation, according to WSJ 17th March: US President Trump says he has no intention of creating exemptions on steel and aluminium tariffs, while he adds reciprocal tariffs will happen on April 2nd USTR's Greer imposes policy process on reciprocal tariff plan; President Trump's top trade negotiator is attempting to inject order into sweeping new tariffs expected next month, after previous announcements roiled markets and fueled business uncertainty India reportedly weighs lower tariffs for US medical devices, according to Economic Times 13th March: Trump said the EU put a 50% tariff on whiskey, if this is not removed, the US will place a 200% tariff on wines, champagnes and other alcoholic products coming out of France and other EU represented countries. Canada's Ontario Premier says they had a productive meeting with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and will have another meeting next week, adds feel temperatures are decreasing and it was the best meeting they had since tariff talks began TARIFF TALLY (SO FAR) US Tariff Policy US reciprocal Tariffs: Trump on February 13th signed his plan for reciprocal tariffs, albeit delayed their implementation. The delay allows Trump admin to launch negotiations on a one-by-one basis with nations that could be impacted. The studies of each country could be completed by April 1st. US tariffs on steel and aluminium: US President Trump signed proclamations on Monday 10th February 2025 to reimpose a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports and declared there are no exceptions or exemptions, effective March 12th. US tariffs on agriculture: Trump: To the Great Farmers of the United States: Get ready to start making a lot of agricultural product to be sold INSIDE of the United States. Tariffs will go on external product on April 2nd. Have fun!" Canada/Mexico US on Canada and Mexico: Tariffs on imports from these countries have been paused for 30 days to allow for negotiations on border security and drug trafficking issues. Pause was initiated on February 3, 2025, is set to expire on March 4, 2025, at 12:01am. The pause expired, with Trump stating ‘there is no room left for a deal on tariffs on Mexico and Canada". US tariff rollback: A day after the tariffs came into effect, Trump said he would temporarily spare carmakers from a new 25% import tax imposed on Canada and Mexico. Two days after imposing tariffs, Trump announced that duties on a wide range of products would be shelved until April 2nd. Canada’s retaliatory tariffs: Following the end of the pause on March 4th, Canada said it would start with 25% tariffs on US imports worth CAD 30bln from Tuesday, while it will impose tariffs on an additional CAD 125bln worth of US imports in 21 days (albeit second wave suspended for now). Furthermore, it said tariffs will remain in place until the US trade action is withdrawn and it is in active discussions with provinces and territories to pursue several non-tariff measures if US tariffs do not cease. 50% US tariff and Canadian Energy Surcharge rollback: Trump on March 11th initially instructed the Commerce Secretary to impose an additional 25%, to 50%, on all steel and aluminium coming into the US from Canada from March 12th although he later backed down from this threat after Ontario's Premier announced they are suspending the 25% surcharge on exports of electricity. China US on China: Additional 10% tariff on top of existing levies, no exclusions, came into effect at 12:01 EST on February 4th. Note, Trump did not clarify whether or not imports of Chinese metals would face double tariffs, as he has already imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods. Extra 10% duty came into effect at 12:01EST on March 4th. China's retaliatory tariffs: Chinese tariffs against the US took effect on February 10th and with officials also said to be building a list of US tech firms for potential probes. China imposed 15% tariffs on US coal & LNG, 10% tariffs on US oil, agricultural machines, and some autos; Tariffs imposed in direct response to Trump's 10% tariffs, according to the Chinese Finance Ministry. China also announced export controls (no specific country mentioned) on tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum and indium. Following the US' extra 10%, on March 4th, China announced 15% on US chicken, wheat, com, and cotton; 10% on US soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products; 15 US entities to the export control list; 10 US firms to the unreliable entity list; banned the import of Illumina (ILMN) gene sequence machines to China. TARIFF TIMELINE February 1st - Trump signed an executive order to impose 10% tariffs on all imports from China and 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada starting Feb 4th. February 3rd - Trump agreed to a 30-day pause on tariffs against Canada and Mexico. February 4th - US additional 10% tariff on China on top of existing levies came into effect. Chinese export controls on tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum and indium took effect (no specific countries mentioned). February 10th - Chinese tariffs against the US took effect (15% tariffs on US coal & LNG, 10% tariffs on US oil). February 13th - Trump signed his plan for reciprocal tariffs, albeit delayed the implementation. March 4th - Tariff pause on Mexico and Canada expired; Additional 10% tariffs on China went into effect on top of Feb 4th tariffs. Canada announced retaliatory tariffs over 21 days, Mexico said it will also respond with retaliatory tariffs. March 5th - Trump allowed a one-month exemption on Mexico and Canada tariffs of US automakers following talks with Ford (F), General Motors (GM) and Stellantis (STLAM IM/STLAP FP) March 6th - Trump postponed the initial 25% tariffs on several imports from Mexico and some imports from Canada for a month. In response, Canada suspended its second wave of retaliatory tariffs. March 10th - China's retaliatory tariffs on certain US agricultural imports (15% on US chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton; 10% on US soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products) went into effect; announced on March 4th in response to the extra 10% US tariff on top of Feb 4th tariffs. March 11th - Trump threatened 50% tariffs on Canada, although he later backed down from this threat after Ontario's Premier announced they are suspending the 25% surcharge on exports of electricity. Trump separately suggested tariffs may go higher than 25% but did not specify which tariffs. March 12th - 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports came into effect, with "no exceptions or exemptions"; European Commission launched countermeasures on US imports while it is putting forward a package of new countermeasures. April 1st - Completion of the US trade policy review. April 2nd - US Liberation Day; 1) Auto tariffs "in the neighbourhood of 25%" comes into effect, 2) US tariffs on "external" agricultural products to go into effect, 3) Temporary tariff relief for Canada and Mexico expires. 4) Reciprocal tariffs kick in - details to be unveiled on the day; US President Trump to announce reciprocal tariffs at 15:00EDT/20:00BST. April 13th - EU countermeasures against 25% steel and aluminium tariff to be fully in place. TBC - pharma and semiconductors tariffs. Developing Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 20:40
Over 100 Rounds Fired During Weekend Shooting In Seattle
1743640200 from ZEROHEDGE
Over 100 Rounds Fired During Weekend Shooting In Seattle West Seatlle...or war zone? That's the question many have to be asking after a report that over 100 rounds were fired in West Seattle this past Sunday according to MyNorthwest. The SPD said in a statement: “On March 30, patrol officers responded to multiple reports of shots fired and property damage near 26th Avenue Southwest and Southwest Brandon Street.” “When police arrived, all involved parties left the area. They did not locate any victims with injuries, no suspects, or cooperative witnesses,” the report continued. Seattle police say a large crowd was gathered for a vigil—likely for a recent South Seattle homicide victim—when gunfire erupted. Officers found over 100 shell casings at the scene. A detective commented: “There was bullet damage to a nearby RV trailer. There was bullet damage to a house, and there was an abandoned vehicle that was also damaged." The MyNorthwest article says that SPD suspects Glock switches may have been involved. The Gun Violence Reduction Unit is investigating and processing the scene. “These glock switches, they’re basically capable of turning a pistol into an automatic machine gun type of a weapon,” the detective continued. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 20:30
RFK Jr.'s Advisor Torches Anti-MAHA Lobbyists: "Insane To Think More Bureaucrats = Better Health"
1743637200 from ZEROHEDGE
RFK Jr.'s Advisor Torches Anti-MAHA Lobbyists: "Insane To Think More Bureaucrats = Better Health" Calley Means, co-founder of the Truemed telehealth platform and a special government employee at the Department of Health and Human Services advising Robert F. Kennedy Jr., defended efforts to eliminate waste and fraud within federal health agencies. During a tense exchange at the Politico Health Care Summit on Wednesday, Means criticized existing federal health authorities as an "utter failure," prompting one healthcare lobbyist in the crowd to shout, "That's not true!" Means then proceeded on a warpath with stats, shutting up the room of anti-MAHA lobbyists. Here's the exchange: Calley: "Those scientists fundamentally have overseen a record of utter failure." Lobbyist: "That's not true!" Calley: "Oh, that's not true?" "Has there been one single chronic disease medication in modern American history that has lowered rates of the chronic disease?" "Is it appropriate that the American Academy of Pediatrics right now, which is 90% funded by pharma, is pushing Ozempic on six year olds?" "The lobbyists in this room do not have the humility to admit that we have gone completely wrong." "The lobbyists in this room laughing when we have the sickest children in the developed world." Calley Means just torched a room of lobbyists! Calley: “Those scientists fundamentally have overseen a record of utter failure.” Lobbyist: “That’s not true!” Calley: “Oh, that’s not true?” “Has there been one single chronic disease medication in modern American history that… pic.twitter.com/yQRs3AE4F7 — End Tribalism in Politics (@EndTribalism) April 2, 2025 Means continued: "When you turn on CNBC, it's just a nonstop infomercial for pharma. It's a Skyrizi commercial followed by Scott Gottlieb saying how Bobby's killing people followed by a breathless coverage of the measles outbreak, and no mention of the mental health crisis. It is insane for you to insinuate that the thing standing between us and better health is more government bureaucrats." It is insane to argue that more government bureaucrats and more spending is standing in the way of better health. It’s the opposite. The moves from HHS this week disempower administrators who let us down + ensures more money goes to scientists and frontline health services. https://t.co/OFzCGCHSEp — Calley Means (@calleymeans) April 2, 2025 Means defended rolling back staffing levels to 2017, arguing that trimming bloated federal health agencies is necessary after decades of worsening public health and some of the worst health rates for kids in the developed world. There is a dividing line in the healthcare debate: Do we need bold change to change the incentives of our system to reverse childhood chronic disease? Or is the answer more of the same? Americans voted for change in November - and they were right. pic.twitter.com/4BDTvaMB8F — Calley Means (@calleymeans) April 2, 2025 What's clear is that a bloated HHS—with its massive administrative state—has failed to improve the health of Americans. .@SecKennedy’s cuts at HHS send a clear message: Less power to administrators. More power to scientists and doctors. pic.twitter.com/yDHPQLVB4Q — Calley Means (@calleymeans) March 27, 2025 In fact, health outcomes for children have worsened. And US health costs are the highest in the world. One of the amazing parts about @SecKennedy is he prompts these lunatics in the MSM to defend a system that has overseen devastation to American health. https://t.co/ZpyPZo4bog pic.twitter.com/ppGwE46G7w — Calley Means (@calleymeans) April 1, 2025 As Means pointed out, it's time for meaningful reforms (such as HHS cuts last week)—not just in health care, but across the processed foods industrial complex. It's time for Americans to demand big food stop poisoning them with chemicals and seed oils. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 19:40
Hegseth: Men And Women In Combat Must Meet 'Same, High Standard'
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Hegseth: Men And Women In Combat Must Meet 'Same, High Standard' Authored by Rachel Acenas via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), The Defense Department on Monday revealed that it would be imposing “sex-neutral” standards for military combat roles. US troops take part in weapons training during the 'Balikatan' or 'shoulder-to-shoulder' US-Philippines joint military exercises in Fort Magsaysay on April 13, 2023 in Nueva Ecija, Philippines. Ezra Acayan/Getty Images Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced the changes to its physical fitness requirements in an effort to “fix” the standards that he said were “lowered” under President Barack Obama’s administration. “Different physical standards for men and women in the U.S. military have existed for a long time. BUT, there were also combat roles that were male-only,” Hegseth said in a statement on X. “Then, under Obama, all combat roles were opened to men AND women. BUT, different physical fitness standards for men and women remained.” “Today at the Department of Defense—we fix this. All combat roles are open to men and women BUT they must all meet the same, high standard. No standards will be lowered AND all combat roles will only have sex-neutral standards. Common sense,” Hegseth added. In a March 30 memorandum, the defense secretary said that the nature of warfare has evolved over time and the demands of U.S. service members have grown more complex. “Sex-neutral” standards must therefore be imposed, according to Hegseth. “All entry-level and sustained physical fitness requirements within combat arms positions must be sex-neutral, based solely on the operational demands of the occupation and the readiness needed to confront any adversary,” he wrote. “In establishing those standards, the Secretaries of the Military Departments may not establish standards that would result in any existing Service member being held to a lower standard.” The defense secretary also directed military secretaries to distinguish between combat and non-combat arms occupations in order to ensure that the standards reflect the unique physical demands of each role. Hegseth also directed them to come up with comprehensive plans for each of those roles. In Ground Combat roles, standards should emphasize the ability to carry heavy loads, endure prolonged physical exertion, and perform effectively in hostile environments. Roles in Special Operation Forces should require “sustained peak physical performance” and incorporate advanced swimming, climbing, parachuting, and the ability to operate in extreme environments. In Specialized Operations, such as Navy divers, service members must have the endurance to tackle conditions that are considered mentally and physically taxing. Hegseth has previously expressed his opposition to women in combat jobs and his belief that standards were lowered to accommodate women. He has also been a staunch proponent of setting all standards the same, regardless of gender. On Jan. 1, 2016, the Defense Department, under Obama, opened all combat roles to women for the first time in U.S. military history. “They’ll be allowed to drive tanks, fire mortars and lead infantry soldiers into combat,” Defense Secretary Ash Carter stated at the time. “They’ll be able to serve as Army Rangers and Green Berets, Navy SEALs, Marine Corps infantry, Air Force parajumpers, and everything else that was previously open only to men.” A 2015 study by the Marine Corps revealed the difference in performance between men and women. As part of the study, the Marine Corps conducted a gender integration experiment in which women participated in infantry courses that were typically closed to females. Mixed-gender combat units took up to a staggering 159 percent longer to evacuate a casualty than all-male units, the results showed. * * * Best sellers at ZH Store: IQ Biologix Colostrum (25% IgG from first milking of grassfed cows) IQ Astaxanthin Ultimate Antioxidant (6,000x stronger than vitamin C) ZeroHedge Multitool (Extremely solid, very sharp, comes with ZH Logo belt pouch) Anza Red-Black Infinity Handle Knife (Made in the USA from carbon steel) Click pic, add to cart, enjoy great knife... Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 19:15
Massie Bill Demands Federal Candidates Reveal Dual Citizenship
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Massie Bill Demands Federal Candidates Reveal Dual Citizenship Seeking to spotlight federal office-seekers who may have a conflict of interest, Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie has introduced a bill that would require candidates for federal office to disclose any non-American citizenships they hold. "Personally, I don’t think dual citizens should serve in Congress, but I ultimately decided to introduce a transparency bill requiring full disclosure of citizenship," said Massie in a Monday Fox News interview with Will Cain. "Voters can then make the decision." So far, Massie's Dual Loyalty Disclosure Act (HR 2356) has attracted four co-sponsors, all of them Republicans: Andy Biggs (AZ-5), Clay Higgins (LA-3), Marjorie Taylor Greene (GA-14) and Nicholas Begich (AK at-large). Massie argues that voters should know if a candidate has loyalties to foreign countries (Allison Bailey / NurPhoto via AP and NBC News) While it's not a provision of his transparency-focused bill that would amend the Federal Election Campaign Act, Massie thinks dual citizens in Congress "should... abstain from votes specifically benefitting those countries," the libertarian-minded MIT grad said in a press release accompanying the introduction of his bill. "We swear an oath to the Constitution, and the question is, if you're a citizen of two countries, which oath are you taking more seriously, or can you take them both seriously?" Massie told Fox's Cain. Underscoring the mystery that Massie is seeking to end, it's unclear how many current members of Congress have citizenship in a foreign country. Indeed, ZeroHedge wasn't able to identify any members who have disclosed dual citizenships on their own. According to Pew Research, there are 19 foreign-born members of the 119th Congress, but that doesn't necessarily equate to holding citizenship abroad. Among those 19, the countries of birth are Mexico (4 members), India (3), South Korea (2) Ukraine (2), Colombia, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Japan, Peru, Somalia and Taiwan. "I'm not picking on any particular country," said Massie. However, American social media and other discourse regarding US officials' potential dual citizenship has overwhelmingly focused on Israel, which receives billions of dollars in US military aid every year, in a relationship that foments intense foreign resentments against the United States, and terrorism against Americans. When he last summer first began advocating for dual citizens in Congress to renounce their foreign citizenships, Massie was immediately accused of anti-semitism. One of his accusers was then-Florida state senator Randy Fine, who on Tuesday was elected to the US Congress in a special election: This guy is just gross. Who in Congress is a dual citizen? I think we all know the slur he is tossing around. The real question is why certain Florida politicians choose this bigot to hang around with. https://t.co/ngs7RTjwDn — Senator Randy Fine (@VoteRandyFine) August 19, 2024 Fine, who calls himself the "Hebrew Hammer," has a history of intensely zealous support of Israel, to include a host of controversial statements celebrating IDF-inflicted bloodshed -- even mocking a photo that purportedly depicted a baby killed by US-supplied weapons. The Trump endorsee, who accompanied Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis when he traveled 6,600 miles to Jerusalem to sign a state law to target antisemitism, has also used a slur ("Judenrat") to attack a fellow Jew who challenged Fine's fiercely pro-Israel line. Massie's refusal to vote for aid to Israel, and his votes against bills that would subject colleges that allow anti-Israel speech to federal enforcement actions, have made him a recurring target of pro-Israel political organizations. They've spent hundreds of thousands of dollars in attempts to oust him in a GOP primary or simply undermine his political future -- so far, all in vain. One of the biggest spenders in 2024 was an offshoot of the powerful American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). Staking a position that echoes his transparency-seeking Dual Loyalty Disclosure Act, Massie has argued that AIPAC should be compelled to register under the Foreign Agents Registration Act: Foreign interest lobbying group AIPAC is running $300,000 of ads as part of a pressure campaign to influence my votes in Congress. The Foreign Agents Registration Act requires agents of foreign principals to register & disclose certain information. Should AIPAC register w/FARA? — Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) May 10, 2024 In February, when Massie teased a potential 2026 bid for the Senate seat of retiring former Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, the Republican Jewish Coalition warned that "the RJC campaign budget to ensure he is defeated will be unlimited." Massie turned that threat into a fundraising bonanza of his own, raising hundreds of thousands in small-dollar contributions to his campaign fund in just a few days. On Tuesday, treading on what may be thin political ice himself, Cain endorsed Massie's Dual Loyalty Disclosure Act: "I don't like it when I see an elected official have more than the American flag in their...bio on X. I don't want to see a Ukrainian flag. I don't want to see an Israeli flag. I want to see single loyalty to the United States of America." This afternoon, I joined @willcain to discuss my bill, the "Dual Loyalty Disclosure Act." Candidates for federal office should be required to disclose to voters whether they have citizenship in other countries. Also, thank you DNI Gabbard for revoking security clearances. pic.twitter.com/plSCg4XeST — Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) March 31, 2025 Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 18:50
Revealed: Pro-Kamala Social-Media Millions That Couldn't Sync 'Brat' With 'Democrat'
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Revealed: Pro-Kamala Social-Media Millions That Couldn't Sync 'Brat' With 'Democrat' Authored by Lee Fang via RealClearInvestigations, The abrupt withdrawal last year of President Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee, followed rapidly by his replacement with Vice President Kamala Harris, irked many voters left out by the process. Yet social media seemed to ooze with enthusiasm and Gen Z-friendly hipster appeal. British singer Charli XCX, whose album "Brat" ignited a "brat summer," inspiring Kamala Harris's team to draft off it, unsuccessfully. The stealth effort included social media payoffs and other campaign-finance workarounds. Influencers flooded the web with neon-matcha green pro-Harris videos synced to beats from singer Charli XCX's album “Brat” released last year. The poppy rave videos, gushed journalists, showed that Harris embodied the confidently independent "brat" vibe conveyed by the music. Social media pages bubbled with memes celebrating Harris as the voice of queer and black youth, in contrast with the Republican agenda of white supremacy. Digital creator Amelia Montooth, in one viral TikTok video, kissed a woman and tried searching for pornography, actions her sketch suggested would be banned if Harris lost the election. Harris, a career politician favored by the Democratic Party’s establishment, never quite fit the bill as an icon of activist movements. But the sudden influencer buzz seemed to transform the stodgy former prosecutor into an icon of the cultural zeitgeist. As it turns out, the tidal wave of enthusiasm was not entirely genuine. Much of the content, including Montooth’s videos, was quietly funded by an elusive group of Democratic billionaires and major donors in an arrangement designed to conceal the payments from voters. RealClearInvestigations obtained internal documents and WhatsApp messages from Democratic strategists behind the influencer campaign. Way to Win, one of the major donor groups behind the effort, spent more than $9.1 million on social media influencers during the 2024 presidential election – payments revealed here for the first time. The amount was touted in a document circulated after the election detailing the organization’s accomplishments. The effort supported over 550 content creators who published 6,644 posts across platforms, TikTok, Instagram, YouTube, Twitch, and X. Way to Win coached creators on phrases, issue areas, and key themes to “disseminate pro-Kamala content throughout the cycle,” a post-election memo from the group noted. The look behind the curtain reveals that at least some of the image-making around the Harris candidacy was carefully orchestrated by the same types of covert social media marketing often used by corporate brands and special interest groups. Such campaigns provide the illusion of organic support through the authentic appeal of trusted social media voices. Way to Win, in internal messages, touted its work with a stable of Democratic Party-affiliated influencers and activists, including Harry Sisson, Emily Amick, Kate Abu, and Dash Dobrofsky. The group also overtly cultivated “non-political creators” – influencers typically known for travel vlogs, comedic skits, or cooking recipes – and seeded them with “positive, specific pro-Kamala content” that was “integral in setting the tone on the Internet and driving additional organic digital support.” The effort often took the form of talking points that were rapidly distributed to the in-network creators. “Bro who is Tim Walz,” said @AbeeTheArtist, one of the TikTok creators backed by Way to Win. “He's a football coach, that's hard,” the influencer continued. “It's time for Republicans to drop out, it's not looking good for ya'll!” In a series of internal presentations about the influencer campaign, Way to Win emphasized its data-driven approach. "We know what messaging works," noted Liz Jaff, a branding strategist working with Way to Win, during a call with donors last year. She touted the use of an AI-based focus group tool developed by Future Forward, the Harris campaign’s primary SuperPAC. Jaff also explained the process for developing talking points that could be inserted into organic-appearing messages and posts on social media. “We then convey that to the influencers who take that into their own words,” continued Jaff. “We then test those videos and see what needs to be boosted,” she added, referencing paid media efforts to amplify specific TikTok videos or favored streamers. The lofty promises of message mastery, however, often fell short. Way to Win directly financed a series of clunky YouTube shows and liberal identity politics-oriented social media skits designed to bring voters out to support the Harris campaign and Democrats more broadly. There’s little evidence that such measures moved any significant numbers of voters during an election in which Democrats lost historic levels of support from key constituency groups – the youth vote, Latinos, and black men swung significantly to Donald Trump last year, upending decades of voting patterns. Ilana Glazer, a comedian who starred in the Comedy Central show Broad City, received Way to Win funding for a series of election videos called “Microdosing Democracy,” in which she half-heartedly endorsed Harris as she lighted a spliff of marijuana. Another TikTok and Instagram series backed by the donors, called “Gaydar,” featured interviews quizzing people on the streets of New York City about gay culture trivia with little election-related content. Way to Win also funded a caravan with an inflatable IUD to Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., Raleigh, St. Louis, and other locations. The tour, which featured content creators producing posts along the way, was designed to bring attention to claims that Trump would ban contraceptive devices. In an apparent attempt to boost Harris’ support among black men, Way to Win directly funded a series of YouTube interview-style talk shows called Watering Hole Media. "I heard a brother say to me, 'Man, I didn't know I was going to be excited when Kamala was selected,’" said Jeff Johnson, a managing director with the lobbying firm Actum LLC who worked as a host for the Watering Hole Mediaseries “Tap In.” “One brother said, 'I'm not even fully sure why,’” continued Johnson. “No, seriously, he said, 'When I look at her, though, she reminds me of my aunt,' and I said yes, so there is this communal piece." The discussion, taped at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago last August, buzzed about the “through line” from the Black Panthers to the Nation of Islam to Harris' nomination, suggesting her candidacy represented another moment in radical black politics. The Way to Win-sponsored media group sponsored many similar discussions attempting to buoy the Harris candidacy with appeals to racial identity politics. Despite the well-funded efforts, few tuned in. The seven video programs produced at the DNC collectively garnered fewer than 1,000 views. One video had fewer than 40 viewers. Questions have mounted over the campaign spending decisions from Harris and her supporting organizations. The Harris campaign and her SuperPAC spent over $1.5 billion in the last months of the campaign, with much of the money flowing to consultants and media advertising. Alex Cooper, who hosted Harris for an interview on her “Call Her Daddy” podcast, was baffled about why the campaign spent about $100,000 on a “cardboard” temporary studio set that “wasn’t that nice.” Others have raised similar concerns about payments to Oprah Winfrey’s production firm. “Our 2024 creator program reached key audiences with nearly a billion views, but there’s more to do, and we’re applying lessons from last cycle,” a Way to Win spokesperson said in a statement to RCI. "Sometimes in presidential campaigns, there are times when there aren't any cost controls," observed Mike Mikus, a Democratic strategist in Pennsylvania. "The biggest question is whether they had any empirical evidence that this TikTok messaging would work." The payments occupy a hazy area of election law. Way to Win structured the funds through nonprofit corporations that paid various influencer talent agencies – firms such as Palette Management and Vocal Media. The money was not listed in Federal Election Commission disclosure portals that show political funds spent during the campaign. While television or radio ads require disclaimers showing the groups responsible for paying for the advertisements, there are no equivalent mandates for TikTok stars or Instagram personalities that receive payment to promote election-related content. Despite some attempts to reform election transparency regulations, minimal progress has been made. The FEC has deadlocked over attempts to form new rules to govern the influencer space, leaving the entire medium virtually lawless regarding campaign cash. Way to Win operates several entities and corporations, most of which do not disclose donors. The group did not respond to a request for comment for more information in this regard. However, the cache of documents about the influencer campaign pointed to some clues. Way to Win hosted a series of donor-only events in San Francisco and Washington, D.C., with representatives of the Open Society Foundation, the charity backed by billionaire investor George Soros. OSF did not respond to a request for comment. Democrats are hardly alone in payola for influencers. Republican campaigns have spent several hundred thousand dollars on similar social media marketing agencies that tout the ability to seed content with popular accounts on X and TikTok. But the attempted reach and spending of the pro-Kamala Harris 2024 effort is unprecedented. For Way to Win, the group justified the spending sprees as the only way to compete with pro-Trump voices and popular podcasts, such as Joe Rogan, which the Harris campaign eschewed. “Our goal this year was to combat conservative content domination on Instagram and TikTok. We did that,” Way to Win claimed in a triumphant memo to donors after the election. “Had more Americans gotten their media from Instagram and TikTok,” the December memo argued, “Kamala Harris would be the next President of the United States.” Best sellers at ZH Store: IQ Biologix Colostrum (25% IgG from first milking of grassfed cows) IQ Astaxanthin Ultimate Antioxidant (6,000x stronger than vitamin C) ZeroHedge Multitool (Extremely solid, very sharp, comes with ZH Logo belt pouch) Anza Red-Black Infinity Handle Knife (Made in the USA from carbon steel) Click picture, check out knife... * * * Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 18:25
Government Funding For mRNA Technology Is Being Scrutinized And, In Some Cases, Sidelined
1743631200 from ZEROHEDGE
Government Funding For mRNA Technology Is Being Scrutinized And, In Some Cases, Sidelined It looks as though government funding for mRNA technology is on a short leash... Take, for example, a promising mRNA vaccine for pancreatic cancer, developed by Memorial Sloan Kettering, that showed encouraging early results: in some patients, immune responses lasted up to four years and appeared to reduce recurrence. It is being overshadowed by new concerns about federal support for mRNA research, according to a new op-ed by science commentator Anjana Ahuja in the Financial Times. According to Nature, NIH officials are informally advising scientists to remove references to mRNA from grant applications, and a spreadsheet tracking 130 related projects has raised fears of funding cuts. NIH claims it's simply reviewing what mRNA work it currently funds, but the lack of clarity has sparked unease—especially given the agency’s massive $47 billion research budget. Drew Weissman, the Nobel-winning scientist behind mRNA vaccine breakthroughs, warned that cutting NIH support for mRNA research would stall medical progress and harm U.S. science. Even the threat of funding cuts creates fear and instability, especially for young researchers who may now look abroad for more secure opportunities. To which we reply: if mRNA vaccines have a safe solution, the free market will eventually allow them to flourish... But the Financial Times piece says that concerns have intensified with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leading Health and Human Services, and reports that mRNA projects are being scrutinized or sidelined politically. One early study using personalized mRNA cancer vaccines is already yielding hopeful results and has launched a broader global trial, according to the op-ed. Scientists argue that pulling support now could derail life-saving innovation. As history shows, today’s medical breakthroughs rest on decades of consistent public research investment — a pipeline that can’t survive in a climate of political interference. * * * Best sellers at ZH Store: IQ Biologix Colostrum (25% IgG from first milking of grassfed cows) IQ Astaxanthin Ultimate Antioxidant (6,000x stronger than vitamin C) ZeroHedge Multitool (Extremely solid, very sharp, comes with ZH Logo belt pouch) Anza Red-Black Infinity Handle Knife (Made in the USA from carbon steel) Click picture, check out knife... Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 18:00
California's Regulations, Not Price Gouging, Cause High Gas Prices, USC Study Finds
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California's Regulations, Not Price Gouging, Cause High Gas Prices, USC Study Finds Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times, Gov. Gavin Newsom stands behind his claim that “Big Oil” is responsible for California’s higher gas prices and vowed on April 1 to continue his fight against the industry. The pledge comes after new research put the blame on state regulations and policies for the high prices at the pump. California’s Democratic leaders have come out strongly against the oil industry in recent years, saying the companies’ gouging was causing record-high gas prices. “Gov. Newsom has done more than any other governor in recent history to tackle the challenge of rising gas prices—despite what the oil industry and its allies say,” a spokesman for Newsom told The Epoch Times in an email Tuesday. A new study published March 16 by Michael Mische from the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California says the evidence contradicts Newsom. Mische’s research indicated California’s high gas prices were caused by the state’s regulations and policies. “There is no economic data to support the allegation of price gouging,” Mische told The Epoch Times. “It just doesn’t exist.” The professor also pushed back against Newsom’s claim that he was an industry ally. “The data is the data,” Mische said. Mische has been on the USC faculty since 1997, where he coordinates the business school’s management consulting undergraduate and graduate programs. In March 2023, the governor signed a “windfall-profits penalty law” to target oil companies. The new law created a slew of regulations and extensive oversight for oil companies. Newsom’s office said the governor saved Californians billions of dollars at the pump by signing the law. The measure allows the governor’s appointed Energy Commission to fine and penalize oil companies if they earned profits beyond state-imposed limits. California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks in the Capitol rotunda in Sacramento on March 28, 2023. Courtesy of the Office of Gov. Gavin Newsom The legislation also created a watchdog agency within the Energy Commission and appointed a Department of Justice prosecutor, Tai Milder, to oversee it. “And with last year’s special session on gas price spikes, we have more tools on the way, including requiring oil refineries to maintain adequate supply to protect the state from supply-driven price spikes,” Newsom’s spokesman said Tuesday. In October, the governor signed a bill allowing the state to require that refiners keep a minimum inventory. Study Show High Prices ‘Largely Self-inflicted’ According to the USC study, which included up to 50 years of data, California’s high gasoline prices and supply problems are “largely self-inflicted, and the result of directed policies and a litany of regulations, taxes, fees, and costs.” “The economic evidence is abundant; California refiners have not engaged in widespread price gouging, profiteering, price manipulation, ‘unexplained residual prices’ or surcharges, magical or otherwise,” Mische wrote in the report. Vehicles pass the Phillips 66 Los Angeles Refinery in Wilmington, Calif., on Nov. 28, 2022. Mario Tama/Getty Images “The Golden State’s gasoline price dilemma is the result of the complex interactions of regulatory and political policies, and the subtleties of refinery operations and global crude oil prices and in-state centric supply and demand,” he added. The state’s aggressive environmental policies are a major contributor, the report said. These include the state’s cap-and-trade charge for the industry that is passed down to the consumer. Environmental fees add about 51 cents per gallon of gas, according to the report. The state’s reporting and compliance costs are also high, which adds to the retail price of gasoline, including the state’s required special summer blend gasoline. California also charges the highest excise tax in the nation, which along with local taxes and other program costs, increase prices at the pump, according to Mische. Cargo shipping containers are seen adjacent to storage tanks at Marathon Petroleum's Los Angeles Refinery in Carson, Calif., on March 11, 2022. Reuters Operating and refinery costs are also higher in California, he said. The number of California refineries has also dropped by nearly 70 percent since 1984, from 43 to 13, Mische noted in the report. The combination of regulations, taxes, and requirements placed on the oil and gas industry have driven up prices and taken a toll on the average working Californian who needs to drive to work, according to Mische. “The issue is, we have Californians who are suffering,” Mische said. “They are feeling the squeeze and they’re going to feel more of the squeeze. We already have the highest cost of living in the United States. This just adds more burden onto the back of the consumer, and we can fix it.” Vehicles pass a gas station in Rosemead, Calif., on Sept. 23, 2024. Frederic J. Brown/AFP California is the second largest consumer of petroleum in the United States but produces less than 3 percent of the nation’s supply, the study found. To meet the needs of drivers, utilities, and industry, the state is highly dependent on oil imports. California’s imports have increased significantly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq, and other petrostates such as Brazil, Guyana, and Ecuador, according to the report. Nevada gas prices also hinge on California refineries, as the Silver State’s retailers get most of their supply from the state next door. The study’s results were no surprise to industry and political leaders who are critics of Newsom’s stance on the industry. Catherine Reheis-Boyd, director of the Western Petroleum Association in Los Angeles, said the study backs up what the association has said for years. “It’s no secret that California has gotten in its own way when it comes to high [gas prices] and supply challenges,” Reheis-Boyd posted on X March 20. Rigs extract oil in Culver City, Calif., on May 16, 2008. Gabriel Bouys/AFP via Getty Images State Senate Republican Leader Brian Jones, of Santee, said 83 percent of California voters agree that gas prices are too high. Jones told The Epoch Times in an email, “Despite knowing what’s driving costs up, Democrats refuse to fix their mistakes. In fact, they continue to double down on their war against our wallets and raise prices at the pump.” California had the highest gas prices in the nation Tuesday, with an average of $4.85 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). The national average was $3.20, AAA reported. The second most costly gas could be found in Hawaii, where consumers paid an average of $4.52, AAA reported. “We now know the reason our prices are $1.65 higher than the national average,” Jones added. “Enough with the political grandstanding and games. It’s time to get to work and finally lower these prices.” Another report, published March 18 by the Los Angeles Economic Development Corporation (LAEDC), titled “Oil and Gas in California,” shows California’s oil and gas industry is essential to the state’s economy. “Despite facing significant challenges, including regulatory pressures, market fluctuations, and global geopolitical tensions, the industry has continued to provide critical economic, employment, and fiscal benefit across the state,” the report stated. The data used in the report was from 2022—the same year that the governor vowed to punish “Big Oil” for allegedly “price gouging.” Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 17:40
Seattle Economic Crisis: Proof That Democrat Wealth Taxes Lead To Disaster
1743628800 from ZEROHEDGE
Seattle Economic Crisis: Proof That Democrat Wealth Taxes Lead To Disaster To look at the Pacific Northwest today one would never know that 25 years ago the region was an economic powerhouse at the forefront of technology and business innovation. At the time Portland and Seattle were known for constant rain as well as raining cash, and the "millionaire density" of the Seattle area was at historic highs. The tech boom and international trade with Asia had created a Silicon Valley of the northern coast. Companies like Nike, Starbucks, Microsoft and Amazon established corporate offices and generated tens of thousands of jobs, and many of those jobs were considered high income. People can debate the overall effects of the population surge to the region; there are many who would argue that Washington and Oregon were better off when they were considered backwoods fishing and lumber states. That said, it's undeniable that for a time the Northwest was one of the most desirable and lucrative places to live in the US. That's all gone now. The wealthy are leaving Seattle like it's a leper colony and all that's left are millions of broke activists, poverty stricken residents and illegal immigrants. Some blame the constant riots or the steady stream of welfare recipients. Others say that the draconian covid mandates caused people to jump ship. However, a primary factor in businesses (and money) leaving the city was the institution of a progressive "Payroll Expense Tax". The PET is a quarterly tax approved by the Seattle City Council in 2020 in the middle of the Covid hysteria. It increases taxes on businesses depending on how many employees they hire and how much their employees get paid. In other words, it punishes companies that hire more people and pay them a good salary. The conditions of the PET are very similar to what Democrats say they want for their "Wealth Tax" - An extra tax on top earners and large companies beyond the income tax. Democrats were high on their own supply in the early 2020s and in their fervor to destroy conservatives they instituted every suicidal policy imaginable, from defunding police to near-zero prosecution for property theft under $1000. It's not surprising that wealth taxes were established at the same time to "stick it to the capitalists". What they seem to have forgotten, though, is that communist tactics don't work if people and businesses are able to walk away, and that's exactly what has happened in Seattle. Larger businesses are packing up and leaving the Northwest as quickly as they arrived. Amazon, Meta, Google and Expedia are the most prominent examples of companies exiting the Seattle labor market and hiring elsewhere to avoid the Payroll Tax, but there are numerous others. The Emerald City is facing a dangerous budget shortfall which has the council and the mayor in a panic. Payroll Tax revenues indicate a surprise decline of over $47 million, far less than expected. To understand why this is such a big deal, keep in mind that Democrat cities have a habit of budgeting based on projected earnings. Meaning, they launch various programs based on the money they assume they will get instead of the money they actually have. Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell acknowledged that the drop in payroll tax revenue will significantly impact the city’s budget for future years. He blamed Seattle’s large businesses for shifting employees to offices outside of the city to avoid the tax (everyone warned Democrats that this would happen and they didn't listen). “Large corporations should pay their fair share and we should be wary when they use job placements to avoid paying funding that our communities rely on, but we also must recognize businesses will make choices based on their bottom line...We need to design our tax policies with the full context of our economy and a comprehensive view that ensures we raise the revenue needed to support all of our residents in a progressive way, aligned with our values.” How does the mayor suggest the problem be solved? Well, Seattle is already stuck with a multitude of programs they slated for funding before revenues were counted. So, Harrell hinted that "additional sources" may need to be taxed to fill the gap left by the PET. What does that mean? Most likely, new taxes on the middle class. As Harrell notes... “We will be closely monitoring OERF’s April forecast to understand the full implications and what steps are necessary to maintain a balanced budget. As we develop the City’s 2026 budget, my office will consider all options, including additional revenue sources and appropriate expense reductions, to ensure we are making the priority investments and funding the essential services that matter to our residents..." When wealth taxes fail, the Democrat Plan B is always to feed off the middle class through methods like new sales taxes or gas taxes. Seattle is already in the midst of an economic decline and a budget shortfall of this size is a crisis. Not only did their new taxes cost tens of thousands of jobs for the area, but they increased their spending projections, counting their chickens before they hatched. Insanely, Democrats in Washington still want to pass a similar Payroll Tax system for the entire state (due to their own budget problems) despite the fact that it has been an unmitigated disaster in Seattle. The economic events in Seattle and the Pacific Northwest in general are a canary in the coal mine for the entire nation; a warning of what is to come if Democrats are allowed to continue running some of Americas biggest metropolitan areas. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 17:20
The Swirling Vortex Of Weaponized Lawfare
1743627600 from ZEROHEDGE
The Swirling Vortex Of Weaponized Lawfare Authored by Ramesh Thakur via The Brownstone Institute, Like a bad ‘When a chicken walked into a pub’ type of joke, when activist litigants walk into a courtroom and meet injunction-happy judges, the result is a swirling vortex of weaponised lawfare. In discussing the current jurisdictional kerfuffle between the US federal executive and judiciary, I find it impossible to overlook the total failure of the courts to protect people’s rights, dignity, and liberty under comprehensive assault from the administrative state during the Covid years. I accept the possibility that this may colour my judgment on the controversy. It has become sadly obvious in recent years that the gravest threat to the theory and practice of democracy is not the rise of populism with wannabe fascists and neo-Nazis as their seductive tribunes, but technocratic elites with barely concealed disdain for the political beliefs and voting behaviour of the ‘deplorables.’ Moreover, as the firewalls of resistance to populist advance crumble one by one under assault from enraged voters, the final frontier of elite resistance is the courts. The legal clerisy—lawyers, law professors, and judges—is part of the ruling elite and the last line of defence for safeguarding victories already won by social justice warriors in their long march through the institutions. Judicial Fallibility Unlike every other profession, is the judiciary infallible? Clearly not, else they would not have been complicit in the biggest violation ever of people’s liberties and freedoms during the Covid years. Every country with a credible rule of law every so often overturns wrongful convictions from the past. Among the best-known Australian examples are those of Lindy Chamberlain and Cardinal George Pell. As a corollary, are judges individually infallible and free of any influence of personal prejudices, beliefs, and life experiences? Again, clearly not. If they were, then in every single verdict heard by a bench of judges, verdicts would be unanimous and we could save considerable time and expense by dispensing with layers of appeal. From Australia consider the case of Cardinal Pell once again. He was convicted by jury verdict, the conviction was upheld 2-1 by the state appeals court, but overturned unanimously by the High Court of Australia (our apex court). Same laws, same evidence, different judgments. Is every judge a paragon of judicial integrity and competence? Not so. A few are corrupt or guilty of other acts of malfeasance. Many more, I suspect, are incompetent rather than dishonest or corrupt. Mechanisms for acknowledging incompetence are fewer and less frequently invoked than for detecting and punishing corruption and malfeasance. Yet, even the latter cannot always be relied upon. There is an interesting scandal playing out in India even now. On the night of 14 March, the official residence of a judge of the Delhi High Court, Justice Yashwant Varma, went up in flames. Firefighters and police officers who rushed to deal with the conflagration discovered jute sacks of burnt-out cash. The Police Commissioner got in touch with the chief justice of Delhi High Court on the 15th to apprise him of developments, who in turn communicated the information to the Supreme Court of India. The Chief Justice of India established a three-judge panel to probe the matter and its report, which has been uploaded online (with redactions) in the interests of transparency given the intense public interest, substantiates that there are grounds for a full and proper inquiry. Justice Varma meanwhile has been transferred to another high court (against the protest of that court’s bar association) pending further investigations and action. The hint of corruption would very likely have gone entirely undiscovered but for the fortuitous fire in the judge’s house. This in itself is an indictment of the inadequacy of oversight mechanisms for judges. A final preliminary question: Unlike all other branches of government, is the judiciary collectively and are judges individually magically incapable of judicial overreach and in need of being put back in their lane? I suppose that such a perfect distribution of relative self-discipline among the branches of government is possible but, being an old cynic, forgive my scepticism. Not all judges have the necessary self-awareness and strength of character to avoid the temptation to abuse their powers and authority. On the contrary, the legal profession has a collective self-interest to expand the reach of its authority over all other sectors and, conversely, to protect itself from pushback by others. A follow-up question is: How can the slow and deliberative process of judicial decision-making be reconciled with the need for sometimes urgent action by the executive? The judiciary is habituated into its own sequence and pace of actions. Thus for judges, the ultimate acquittal of Cardinal Pell by the High Court of Australia was a triumph of judicial institutions and process. To ordinary mortals, the process itself was a harsh punishment, and the 405 days that the aging cardinal spent behind bars was a damning miscarriage of justice. In other words, from the date of his indictment in June 2017 through two jury trials, a first failed appeal, the final successful appeal, release from prison in April 2020, and death in January 2023 still unable to fully cleanse the taint of paedophilia, more than half of Cardinal Pell’s remaining time on earth was under malicious trial and punishment by a cadre of anti-Catholic Church activists out for blood. The nation demanded a scapegoat for the Catholic clergy’s historical sexual abuse of children. I write this not just as a non-Christian but as an atheist. The Weaponisation of Lawfare and the Ideological Capture of Jurists In the US, more than 125 lawsuits were filed in Trump’s first two months challenging his policies, mostly against efforts to cut government departments and agencies down to size. In just one day recently, district judges ordered a halt to Trump’s executive orders to dismantle USAID, the reinstatement of DEI grants by the education department, a pause on deportation flights of alleged Venezuelan gang members, and a stay on the ban of transgender members of the military. Was Trump wrong or exaggerating to say ‘These Judges want to assume the Powers of the Presidency,’ the latter must sometimes ‘act quickly and decisively,’ and the US ‘is in serious trouble’ if the Supreme Court refuses to ‘fix this toxic and unprecedented situation’ urgently? An article in the Journal of Legal Studies in January 2018 noted that, based on donations to party, a minority of 35 percent of American lawyers and a mere 15 percent of over 10,000 law professors were conservative in 2012. The three authors of the study noted that at the time, conservatives controlled all three branches of the federal government and more than two-thirds of state governorships and legislative assemblies, while voters identifying as conservative outnumbered liberals 35-24. The pathology of ideological uniformity and misalignment with public sentiments has worsened considerably since then. Derek Muller, a law professor at Notre Dame University, examined political donations by law professors by political party (such information is public knowledge in the US) from 2017 to early 2023. To the surprise of no one, they skew overwhelmingly towards Democrats. Of the 3,284 law faculty donors in this five-year-plus period, 95.9 percent gave money only to Democrats, 2.7 percent to Republicans, and 1.5 percent to both parties. When broken down by dollar figures, 92.3 percent of donations went to Democrats and 7.7 percent to Republicans. Of the more than 100 institutions Muller looked at, every single one had more registered Democrats than Republicans in the law faculty, mostly by large margins. Does anyone seriously believe this does not lead to an ideological disconnect between the legal-judicial clerisy in courtrooms and on the benches, and the American people? District Judge James Boasberg ordered a halt to the deportation of over 250 illegal Venezuelans with links to the Tren de Aragua gang, a federally designated foreign terrorist organisation. Judge Boasberg is part of the Washington bubble. DC voted for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris over Trump by an overwhelming margin of 93.6-5.5 percent (with 0.9 percent write-ins). Flights already in progress were told to return. This did not happen because, the government says, the planes were already in international airspace and so the directive not to ‘remove’ them from the US had been rendered moot. A senior Trump adviser, Stephen Miller, said a district court has ‘no ability to in any way restrain the President’s authority under the Alien Enemies Act.’ Regardless of legal scholars’ learned opinions, most voters will likely side with the administration that the scale of migration across the southern border in the Biden years does meet the threshold of ‘an invasion or predatory incursion’ under the Act, justifying their arrest and removal as ‘enemy aliens.’ Trump called Boasberg a ‘troublemaker and agitator’ Obama judge who ‘should be IMPEACHED!!!’ Critics warned of an ‘assault on the entire constitutional order in America.’ In a rare public rebuke, Chief Justice John Roberts (who stayed silent when a roll call of Democrats called for impeachment of judges) said ‘For more than two centuries, it has been established that impeachment is not an appropriate response to disagreement’ on judicial decisions. Instead, ‘the normal appellate review process’ provides the proper remedy. On 26 March, the US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit upheld Boasberg’s temporary stay of deportations by a 2-1 decision. Roberts ignores a basic cause of the looming constitutional crisis; namely, the absence of mechanisms to ensure the judiciary stays in its own lane even while admonishing the executive to stay in its lane. Separation of powers imposes limits to the jurisdictional overreach of all three branches. The judiciary cannot be the sole arbiter of its own reach and limits as well as that of Congress and the president. Who then holds the judiciary accountable to its limits? National injunctions inevitably encourage activists to lodge a case in a jurisdiction and with a judge likely to be sympathetic. They also ‘tend to force judges into making rushed, high-stakes low information decisions,’ Justice Neil Gorsuch noted in a 2020 Supreme Court judgment. The assumption that no judge ever acts in an ideologically partisan way is demonstrably false. Events in the real world move much faster than the glacial pace of judicial proceedings. This means the Supreme Court too must move faster and decisively to rein in out-of-control judges. An alternative interpretation to the alarmist ‘constitutional crisis’ therefore is that Trump’s actions may help to restore constitutional integrity and democratic accountability by stripping power and resources from the bloated administrative state and returning them to Congress and the executive. National injunctions from district courts are rare when Trump isn’t involved. According to an article in the Harvard Law Review last year, there were a total of 127 from 1963 to the start of 2020. More than half (64) were against the first Trump administration. In the period covering the Bush Sr. and Obama presidencies, plus Biden’s first three years, there were 32. In February alone this year there were 15 against Trump II, according to a Justice department filing in the Supreme Court. Judge Boasberg had earlier given a get-out-of-jail-free card to FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith, who had altered an email in order to get a warrant from the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) court for surveillance of Trump campaign adviser Carter Page. This was the prelude to the Russia collusion hoax that severely hobbled Trump I. Boasberg sentenced Clinesmith to probation rather than jail. He also meted out controversial sentences to protestors at the US Capitol on 6 January 2020 and ordered Mike Pence to testify before the grand jury investigating Trump’s role in those riots. Given the composition of the Senate, any effort to impeach Judge Boasberg isn’t feasible as a political proposition. That is different from assessing the legality of the action. Impeachment can be abused when wielded as a weapon or function as a guardrail against judicial abuses. An isolated bad decision can be handled by the normal appellate review process. A pattern of rulings that gives rise to an apprehension of bias can be an impeachable offence. Moreover, the crisis has intensified to this point because of the Supreme Court’s institutional timidness-cum-cowardice. Roberts has previously expressed concern with the ‘institutional legitimacy’ of the federal judiciary. A predictable consequence of his implicit scolding of Trump was to embolden activist judges and NGOs in their efforts to delay and obstruct the president from implementing his voter-approved policy agenda. For, contrary to his assertion, the appellate process has not been working efficiently. The Supreme Court needs to step in fast to rein in judicial overreach by district court judges and adopt orderly systems of adjudication of urgent matters. Utah Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) has proposed a law requiring a three-judge panel from different circuits—two district judges and one court of appeals judge—to rule on challenges to presidential orders, with the possibility of appeal directly to the Supreme Court. This might not be the best formula but does seem like an improvement on the current flawed system. The Pathology Is Not Restricted to the US In February 2020, Australia’s High Court decided in a controversial 4-3 split verdict in the Love v Commonwealth case that an Aboriginal Australian who is not in fact a citizen of Australia cannot be considered an ‘alien’ under the constitution. Accordingly, unlike non-Aboriginal people living here who are not citizens, Aboriginal Australians cannot be deported even if convicted of criminal offence. Apparently they retain some mystical inalienable connections to the land and country. It might help readers to understand how and why this strange reading of the constitution might have come about by considering a current controversy involving one Australian law school. Over the last couple of weeks, the Australian has featured a series of articles on racial and gender indoctrination by Macquarie University’s law school courses, on pain of failing grades for wrongthink. Some of these were written by students of that school who opted for anonymity in order to avoid retribution. Several of the descriptions for the PhD in law are incoherent and grammatically challenged. Often the units have nothing whatsoever to do with the core subject of the course for which they have enrolled. Some of tomorrow’s judges will be graduates of these schools. Can they be expected to apply the law free of indoctrinated prejudices? In a neat closing of the circle, one unnamed student wrote that students are required: ‘to write an essay reflecting on how one or more of these critical legal studies theories was relevant to our PhD topic. And it was made quite clear to me that you were expected to include something like this in your thesis too, regardless of what the topic is.’ Queensland University’s James Allan, one of the very few conservative law professors in Australia, points out that when Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson prorogued the UK Parliament in order to get Brexit through, ‘all Remainer UK Supreme Court judges overturned three centuries of precedent and ruled’ his action to be unconstitutional even though the country has no written constitution. Despite this relatively recent precedent from the mother of parliamentary democracy, the Canadian Supreme Court upheld PM Justin Trudeau’s power to prorogue Parliament which he had done so that his government could avert a no-confidence motion before his party had had time to choose a new leader under whom to face the next election (since called for on 28 April). Indeed, the fact that Mark Carney, who has never even contested let alone won an election, can be installed as PM is itself a sad indictment of the state of Canadian democracy. The leadership change has completely transformed the election dynamics. Doesn’t this amount to judicial interference in Canada’s elections? As many Western democracies reach an inflection point on mass immigration, courts have become the place where democracies go to die. UK PM Sir Keir Starmer, possibly the strongest supporter of the rule of law among world leaders and himself a human rights lawyer, complained on 13 March about ‘A sort of cottage industry of checkers and blockers using taxpayer money to stop the government delivering on taxpayer priorities.’ Elite Contempt for the People It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that judges increasingly reflect a more general elite contempt for the people that extends to the political choices made by people. Why does Trump horrify the rest of the Western democratic world so much? Well, we are beginning to understand. He says what he means, does what he says, and wants to accomplish what he promised to do in the one term of four years available to him. The dominant British and European approach to exercising power could not be more different. The established major parties treat citizens as absolute mugs, campaign in poetry to promise voters whatever they want, then, once in power, govern in prose to do whatever ‘we the elite’ want. The next election becomes an exercise in rinse and repeat. Exhibit A of this treat-voters-as-mushrooms (keep them in the dark and feed them manure) strategy is PM Starmer with his loveless landslide in the UK. Exhibit B is wannabe Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Germany. Exhibit C, PM Anthony Albanese here in Australia. Like Germany and the UK, the starkest evidence of the reality of Uniparty in Australia is how PM Scott Morrison, having won an election on opposition to climate change lunacy, embraced the insanity of an artificial deadline for net zero at the Glasgow COP summit in October 2021 that was an equal opportunity offender to all voters and he duly lost the next election six months later. Yet, Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton refuses to abandon it despite the rest of the world moving on, especially since Trump pulled the US out of the green energy scam. In Australia and the UK, voters have gotten tax-and-spend, big government, mass immigration, and net-zero policies regardless of which party they chose at elections with their campaign promises. Centre-right parties in Germany’s new Bundestag got 49 percent of the vote compared to 28 percent for the Greens and SPD. Yet it’s the latter whose policies are being enacted by Merz, using a constitutional amendment passed by the outgoing Bundestag full of MPs already voted out. And all in the name of safeguarding democracy! I wonder what Vice President JD Vance has to say about this? In nearby Romania, democracy protection means cancelling the leading candidate from the presidential election, again vindicating Vance’s criticism of the corruption of democracy across Europe. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 17:00
Alec Baldwin Says Quiet Part Out Loud As Democrats Become More Unhinged
1743626400 from ZEROHEDGE
Alec Baldwin Says Quiet Part Out Loud As Democrats Become More Unhinged As the Democratic Party spirals into disarray—polling in freefall, far-left activists firebombing Tesla showrooms and vehicles, and USAID funds cut for its sprawling NGO network used for domestic color revolution operations—struggling actor Alec Baldwin has openly said the quiet part out loud: "You can see now that we are in a pre-civil war culture." The Hollywood elitist rambled on for a few minutes in a video posted on Instagram, adding: "And watching this show really reminded me of how we are in a very similar state now in a pre-Civil War culture, in a pre-Civil War environment." NEW: Alec Baldwin declares the United States is in a pre-Civil War culture. The actor took a break from being bossed around by his wife to make the public service announcement. “You can see now that we are in a pre Civil War culture.” “I look at the politics of it, of where… pic.twitter.com/gj2s99xbxW — Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) April 2, 2025 Baldwin's comments merely reflect the rudderless Democratic Party as its back is against the wall, growing increasingly desperate by the day as its rogue political machine (billionaire-funded) falls apart—with USAID funding eliminated, DOGE uncovering fraud involving Social Security numbers handed out to migrants like candy (which, by the way, allegedly allows migrants to vote in elections), and other Marxist-aligned, anti-American programs that were in place to undermine the nation. Never forget just how cringe Baldwin is... Alec Baldwin tells a story about how he saw his wife’s ex-boyfriend’s “baseball bat” sized junk hanging between his legs. “He turns around with his personality hanging, I'm like, oh, oh, oh, okay. He had like a clarinet hanging from his pants.” This guy’s life has turned into… pic.twitter.com/Bj9Q2OX1rw — Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) March 23, 2025 One X user perfectly explained why Baldwin is reading from a script: The "pre-civil war" panic is a familiar script from Hollywood elites who spent four years cheering riots, censorship, and impeachments when they didn't get their way. But now that Trump's back in office and the populist tide is rising, suddenly it's dangerous polarization. In truth, the cultural divide wasn't created by Trump, it was exposed by him. And people like Baldwin don't fear civil war, they fear accountability. They fear a public no longer hypnotised by their narratives, no longer obedient to their values. If anything, it's the ruling class and its institutions, Hollywood included, that have been waging a cultural war for decades. Trump just stopped apologising for fighting back. The “pre-civil war” panic is a familiar script from Hollywood elites who spent four years cheering riots, censorship, and impeachments when they didn’t get their way. But now that Trump’s back in office and the populist tide is rising, suddenly it’s dangerous polarization. In… — Kalopsia (@Kalopsiac1984) April 2, 2025 Just as the far-left corporate media cheered on domestic terrorism against Tesla, unhinged celebrities like Baldwin are now pushing propaganda warfare against the American people. It's time to break free from the matrix. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 16:40
Big Balls To The Rescue: DOGE Saves A Terabyte Of Data Destroyed By Exiting USIP Employees
1743625200 from ZEROHEDGE
Big Balls To The Rescue: DOGE Saves A Terabyte Of Data Destroyed By Exiting USIP Employees Authored by Monica Showalter via AmericanThinker.com, I've never heard anything good about the United States Institute for Peace. It's been in bed with neocons, coupmeisters, and the Soros color revolution crowd for years. The quasi-government agency that runs like a private NGO is always sneaky and non-transparent. So it didn't surprise me a bit to learn that USIP showed unusual resistance to anyone poking into their spending from DOGE. Did you hear how the staff as USIP acted when DOGE showed up? They literally BARRICADED themselves in their offices, cut the phone lines and power to elevators, sabotaged office equipment and the Head of USIP had to be arrested & removed. pic.twitter.com/Ay8xLdt2nU — DuaneCates001 (@THEDuaneCates) March 30, 2025 They even called the cops on DOGE, only to get arrested and hauled off themselves: USIP officials attempted a petty little coup against Trump and Doge. Here’s the twist—Metro PD were called in by USIP, but when they arrived, they removed the USIP officials instead. To the Leftists eager for an uprising: The police and military aren’t on your side. pic.twitter.com/qjvVOKfT0a — Mirthful Moments (@moment_mirthful) April 1, 2025 And they seem to have had a siphoning game going on: 🚨 USIP UNDER FIRE: $13M FUNNELED TO PRIVATE ENDOWMENT, TALIBAN-LINKED PAYMENTS UNCOVERED Each year, the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) receives $55M in taxpayer funding. But over the past decade, $13M was quietly transferred to its private Endowment—outside congressional… https://t.co/vBxrmZgYg1 pic.twitter.com/tRkOZvYSp5 — DOGE Tracker (@Tracking_DOGE) March 31, 2025 According to a hostile, biased report from Newsweek: Elon Musk has accused the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) of deleting a terabyte of financial data to "cover their crimes." Musk reposted a claim from the Conservative page 'amuse' on X (formerly Twitter) which stated that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) had found USIP contracts going to Afghanistan's former chief of protocol, who had been a member of the Taliban, and to the Iraqi League for Youth. Musk wrote on X: "They deleted a terabyte of financial data to cover their crimes, but they don't understand technology, so we recovered it." Any government institution is most likely to be the opposite of its name https://t.co/hUfinp5Ujm — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 1, 2025 Nothing they did ever had the slightest relationship to promoting "peace." They were bribing the Afghan Taliban warlords to keep the drugs flowing. That’s what the US Institute of Peace payments were for. https://t.co/2dwhkISdLY pic.twitter.com/WFf0lyU2Zp — Mike Benz (@MikeBenzCyber) April 1, 2025 They had an opaque structure that was an invitation to corruption: DOGE: The agency called USIP has/had a structure that should never been allowed in a democracy - they were allowed to operate as a private corporation (non-profit) and a federal agency at the same time. They didn't have to follow any rules.https://t.co/X0L0jgXhNU — @amuse (@amuse) April 1, 2025 Each year, the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) receives $55M in congressional (taxpayer) funds. - Prior management would sweep excess funds into its private Endowment (zero congressional oversight). -In the past 10 years, USIP has transferred ~$13M to its private… — Department of Government Efficiency (@DOGE) March 31, 2025 The most vivid and satisfying aspect of this story is that the USIP characters tried to destroy data to hide their acts -- and ran into BigBalls, or someone like him at DOGE, who quietly recovered the data they tried to destroy. DOGE & of course, Big Balls 😏 found over a TERABYTE of deleted information from the US funded "US Institute of Peace". Fraud waste & abuse will start dropping a lot of people in jail. I hope they're prepared for what's coming to them. https://t.co/ZsumrlJWnO — Jeri Lynn Simpson (@DreamerJeri) April 1, 2025 Hilarious that Big Balls undeleted the terabyte the dude thought was gone forever! Busted! We’ve got Big Balls!! https://t.co/9RknO3UlTX — Degisi (@LCDRJobie) April 1, 2025 Sometimes, the good guys really do win, and for the most embarrassing of reasons for the bad guys -- they didn't know tech like Elon's team knows tech. Now their chief may be facing criminal charges based on this bid to avoid accountability. 🚨 DOJ considers criminal charges for directors of U.S. Institute for Peace. 🚨 Timeline of USIP malfeasance, blockade of Doge.https://t.co/q2ViXx9EeT pic.twitter.com/d6MAxUF4dw — Tony Seruga (@TonySeruga) March 24, 2025 What were they hiding? It must have been something pretty big. But whatever it was, it's satisfying to know that they need to respect the will of the people who pay their paychecks and bankroll their slush funds, and like any NGO, need to provide a minimum of accountability with no record destruction. One can only hope that they will be made an example of, if for nothing else, to deter the others. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 16:20
"Yeah, Fake News": Musk Denies Politico Musk Report
1743624316 from ZEROHEDGE
"Yeah, Fake News": Musk Denies Politico Musk Report Update (1605ET): Aaand here's the denial. White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt has called Politico's scoop "garbage," adding "lon Musk and President Trump have both *publicly* stated that Elon will depart from public service as a special government employee when his incredible work at DOGE is complete." "Yeah, fake news," Musk replied. Yeah, fake news https://t.co/nPhTpZj3Fc — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 2, 2025 Though we would note that 'stepping back' (Politico) does not equal 'departing' (WH). * * * Best sellers at ZH Store: IQ Biologix Colostrum (25% IgG from first milking of grassfed cows) IQ Astaxanthin Ultimate Antioxidant (6,000x stronger than vitamin C) ZeroHedge Multitool (Extremely solid, very sharp, comes with ZH Logo belt pouch) Anza Red-Black Infinity Handle Knife (Made in the USA from carbon steel) Click picture, check out knife... * * * Shares of Tesla rose on Wednesday following an anonymously sourced Politico report (keeping in mind Musk just yanked millions in government 'subscriptions' from them) that President Trump has told his inner circle that Musk would be stepping back from his advisory role in the coming weeks. Musk, who Politico describes as "governing partner, ubiquitous cheerleader and Washington hatchet man" (totally not salty), claims that Trump "remains pleased with Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency initiative but both men have decided in recent days that it will soon be time for Musk to return to his businesses and take on a supporting role." Then Politico gets extra nasty - writing that "Musk’s looming retreat comes as some Trump administration insiders and many outside allies have become frustrated with his unpredictability and increasingly view the billionaire as a political liability, a dynamic that was thrown into stark relief Tuesday when a conservative judge Musk vocally supported lost his bid for a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat by 10 points." One anonymous official allegedly told Politico that Musk is likely to retain an informal advisory role and continue to be an occasional face around the White House, while another said that anyone who thinks Musk is going to disappear entirely from Trump's orbit is "fooling themselves." As we noted above, shares of Musk-owned Tesla rose more than 5% on the report. While Polymarket odds that he'll be out as the head of DOGE in 2025 spiked as well. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 16:05
Will Today Go Down In History As The Beginning Of A New Era?
1743622800 from ZEROHEDGE
Will Today Go Down In History As The Beginning Of A New Era? To paraphrase Michael Every's earlier take, "will today go down in history, marking the end of one era and the beginning of another?" That's the question asked by DB's Jim Reid who notes that only time, and subsequent negotiations, will tell. However, as the DB credit strategist notes, "tariff announcements today could well take us into uncharted territory." According to Deutsche Bank's calculations, the previously announced measures already bring the US to a 12% average tariff rate, the highest since World War II. And then, today's announcement could increase this to 18%, and potentially even higher if the reported near-universal 20% tariff option is implemented. This would approach the levels seen in the early 1930s after the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, though likely remaining below the very protectionist rates of the early 20th century. This earlier period has been cited by Trump and Lutnick as a golden era for the US (presumably this excludes the Great Depression that followed the Smoot Hawley protectionism). Reid's points out that the recent Lutnick and Bessent podcasts highlight Lutnick's emphasis on tariffs as the foundation the US economy was built on, noting the absence of income tax until 1913 during what he considers the nation's wealthiest period. He argues that post-World War II tariff reductions were a strategic move to aid global reconstruction, with the understanding that other countries would maintain higher tariffs. However, he now believes this imbalance has persisted too long, requiring a new approach. In one respect, we've already returned to McKinley-era levels. Because trade represents a larger share of the economy today, Reid notes that tariff revenue as a percentage of GDP is already set to slightly exceed 1%, based on the announced tariffs on China (20%), Canada and Mexico (partial 25%), and steel, aluminum, and autos (25%). This puts us back in McKinley territory, and we're likely to surpass it today (chart right below). As such, Reid concludes that "any announcement today will be subject to negotiation, but the starting point will likely be era-defining." Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 15:40
If You Needed Any More Evidence Leftism Is A Mental Disorder...
1743621600 from ZEROHEDGE
If You Needed Any More Evidence Leftism Is A Mental Disorder... Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news, Social media users have alerted the FBI after a clearly deranged leftist woman posted a video ‘joking’ about assassinating President Trump with an assault rifle. The bespectacled Karen declares in the video that board games can help “if you’re struggling with your mental health,” before pulling out some sort of Super Mario game and flashing ‘Luigi’ at the camera. She then weirdly labours the declaration that “We love Luigi,” clearly referring to Luigi Mangione, the guy who is charged with murdering the CEO of United Health Care. Creepy woman "jokes" about ass*ssinating President Trump (wink wink) @fbi @secretservice pic.twitter.com/2l0fadrJlA — Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) April 1, 2025 Someone is definitely struggling with their mental health, and it’s her. The weirdo then pulls out Cards For Humanity, perhaps the most unfunny cringe dross game ever invented, so naturally absolutely adored by NPC leftists. She then holds up several cards that ‘joke’ assassinating the president of the United States with an assault rifle makes “life worth living.” The woman then slurs about how it’s “shocking”awful” but “just comedy, and not serious”… or something. She’s not joking and should be investigated. — Valkyries for women🇺🇸 (@valkyriesrwomen) April 1, 2025 Whoa, that's some dark humor. Better watch those jokes, bro. — Lily-Rose 🪷🌹 (@LilyRose_Sol) April 1, 2025 These people are completely mental and dangerous. This is what the Dems do. They joke about something that is absolutely terrible because they actually want it to happen. As much as I can't stand Joe Biden, I would never joke about him being ass*ssinated, although he should definitely be in a prison cell. The Dems constantly… — Adrian Harris (@StoryMemeMovie) April 1, 2025 The number of liberals posting these types of videos is disturbing. I trust @FBI & @SecretService are on top of them. My question to libs is, are you this mentally unstable or do you think this is an acceptable thing? https://t.co/drwiC6YycI — Jimmy “The Neck” (@jimmy_the_neck) April 1, 2025 Liberals are sick. They really are mentally ill. How long until some 38 year old mothers basement living nut job sees this and thinks “yup,I’ll k-ll the president, I’ll be a hero” they people need to be arrested for threats against the president. NOW. @AGPamBondi @SecretService https://t.co/JLZRQkFCG0 — 🇺🇸Juda13🇺🇸 (@Juda1333) April 1, 2025 * * * Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 15:20
Trump Mulls 'Indirect' Talks With Iran As 2nd Carrier Group Dispatched To Mideast
1743619200 from ZEROHEDGE
Trump Mulls 'Indirect' Talks With Iran As 2nd Carrier Group Dispatched To Mideast Various international reports have said that the White House is seriously considering Iran's proposal for indirect nuclear talks, however, on Tuesday the US slapped more sanctions on the Islamic Republic as part of the Trump's restored 'maximum pressure' campaign. The Treasury Department in this latest move sanctioned several entities based in Iran, the UAE, and China - saying they are involved in "procurement of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) components on behalf of Iran-based Qods Aviation Industries (QAI)—a leading manufacturer for Iran’s UAV program." USS Vinson, via US Navy At the same time, it has become a central White House talking point that Iran and the Houthis are like hand-in-glove. The administration has been declaring that the over two week bombing mission in Yemen is huge blow to Iran. Currently a second US aircraft carrier is en route to the Middle East. This was confirmed Tuesday with an order by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth to send the USS Carl Vinson and accompanying warships to the region. There it will join the USS Harry Truman - which has already come under repeat attempts of the Houthis to attack it in the Red Sea region. The Vinson is traveling to the area from the Asia Pacific. Hegseth has also "ordered the deployment of additional squadrons and other air assets that will further reinforce our defensive air-support capabilities." Paris is on Wednesday hosting Iran-related diplomatic talks over finding a way forward. France's Foreign Ministry has issued a statement saying the window of opportunity for a new nuclear agreement with Iran is "narrow and if a deal cannot be reached then a military confrontation seems to be almost inevitable." President Trump has basically laid out a strong, provocative ultimatum: Tehran can either sign a fresh deal or face American bombs. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has hit back, warning a "strong counterattack" would certainly ensue. Iranian state media has been highlighting that some ten US military bases in the region are in range of Iranian missiles. Another sign that Trump might be serious about preemptive strikes is that last week the Pentagon dispatched at least five B-2 bombers to the American base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. The wildest intercept video I’ve ever seen. A F/A-18F and F-35C escort a Ilyushin Il-38N low level past the USS Carl Vinson. 🤯 Do you think they did the whole SEDLO SEDLO SEDLO. DELTA ECHO. IVORY EAGLE thing over the radio? pic.twitter.com/m4xxPTMqDF — Thenewarea51 (@thenewarea51) March 27, 2025 This puts the bombers within close striking distance of either Iran or Yemen. Likely any escalation between Tehran and Washington would occur outside Iran, with the US likely to strike at 'proxies' first. Russia and Iran have meanwhile still been talking about Moscow running point as an outside mediator between Tehran and Washington over its nuclear energy program. The US administration has so far seemed open to this. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 14:40
Meta To Expand Ray-Ban Smart Glasses Lineup With Display-Enabled Model
1743601800 from ZEROHEDGE
Meta To Expand Ray-Ban Smart Glasses Lineup With Display-Enabled Model Since late summer or fall of 2024, Ray-Ban Meta Glasses have surged in popularity with US consumers, a trend we previously highlighted citing several Goldman reports. The data was primarily based on app downloads worldwide. Source: Goldman's Jack McFerran Building on this momentum, Mark Zuckerberg's Meta's Reality Labs division is preparing to capture further market share in the smart glasses segment by releasing a new iteration of its Meta Glasses later this year. The glasses will feature an integrated screen for displaying photos and applications, according to a Bloomberg News report. These glasses are expected to be priced between $1,000 and $1,400, positioning them as an affordable offering in the smart glasses realm, considering Apple's Vision Pros cost more than $3,000. Ray-Ban Meta Glasses have been a hit with consumers considering that many other smart glasses options are unaffordable: Apple Vision Pro. As we previously noted, Tim Cook's space goggles have bombed: Vision Pro's Success Hinges On Cheaper Version As Consumers Balk At $3,500 Price Tag Apple Reportedly Halts Work On Vision Pro 2, Focuses On Cheaper Version As Demand Falters Apple "Might Wind Down" Vision Pro Production Next Month Due To "Weak Demand" Number Of Apple Vision Pro Apps Hit By "Significant Slowdown" As Demand Plunges For months, readers have been briefed on the shift to Meta Glasses... Popularity Of Meta Smart-Glasses Erupt As Apple Vision Pro Demand Vanishes Bloomberg provided further color about the Meta prototype version of the Hypernova glasses ahead of commercialization: When they are turned on, the display shows a "boot screen" with logos for Meta and other partners — such as chipmaker Qualcomm Inc. — on the product. Once the device is on, the user will see a home screen comprised of circular icons laid out horizontally, similar to the app dock on Apple devices or Meta's Quest mixed-reality headset. The glasses include dedicated apps for taking pictures, viewing photos and accessing maps. There is also support for notifications from phone apps, including Meta's Messenger and WhatsApp. The glasses will otherwise work similarly to the current Wayfarer-style Ray-Ban Metas, focusing on capturing images and video, accessing AI via built-in microphones and pairing with a phone for calls and music playback. The new version will continue to rely heavily on the Meta View phone app. Like Meta's other new devices, the glasses will run a highly customized version of the Android operating system from Alphabet Inc.'s Google. The company isn't currently planning to include an on-board app store. Users will be able to control the glasses using capacitive touch controls on the sides of the glasses, meaning they can scroll through apps or photos by swiping against the temple bars and then tapping to open something specific. Meta also plans to begin offering a so-called neural wristband for the first time, which will allow a wearer to control the glasses with gestures, such as rotating their hand to scroll through apps and photos and pinching their finger and thumb to select items. Meta is currently planning to bundle the accessory, codenamed Ceres, in the box with the glasses "The Hypernova glasses are still months away from being introduced, and the company's current plans could change," Bloomberg noted. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 09:50
T-Day
1743600600 from ZEROHEDGE
T-Day By Michael Every of Rabobank "I have also to announce to Congress that during the night and the early hours of this morning the first of the series of tariffs in force upon the European Continent has taken place. In this case the liberating assault fell upon the coast of France. An immense armada of upwards of 4,000 tariffs, together with several thousand smaller tariffs, crossed the Channel. Massed airborne tariffs have been successfully effected behind the enemy lines, and tariff landings on the beaches are proceeding at various points at the present time... The Americans are sustained by about 11,000 first line tariffs, which can be drawn upon as may be needed for the purposes of the battle. I cannot, of course, commit myself to any particular details. Reports are coming in in rapid succession. So far, the Commanders who are engaged report that everything is proceeding according to plan. And what a plan! This vast operation is undoubtedly the most complicated and difficult that has ever taken place. It involves tides, wind, waves, visibility, both from the air and the sea standpoint, and the combined employment of land, air and sea tariffs in the highest degree of intimacy and in contact with conditions which could not and cannot be fully foreseen.” Apologies to Winston Churchill for misusing his D-Day speech: “We shall tariff on the beaches, we shall tariff on the landing grounds, we shall tariff in the fields and in the streets, we shall tariff in the hills; we shall never surrender,” would have been snappier, but historically, the above is the correct one for today. Because it’s T-day, or “Liberation Day”, or Make America Wealthy Again (MAWA) Day. That’s all we know so far. One rumor is we may get a 20% universal tariff, which would say a lot about ‘state’ and not so much about ‘craft’; or a targeted scheme; that may or may not then be negotiated down. We all still have to wait and see. (Of course tomorrow we start 25% US auto tariffs, on which please see our latest report.) Ahead of that last-second US decision, last-minute countermoves are being made. Israel (where not much work was needed) and Vietnam (where more was) have both cut all their tariffs on US goods in the hope of a better outcome, and India is reportedly considering the same. Europe (and Canada and Mexico) are instead preparing to fight back, the former even floating escalation into new areas like services and tech that will surely guarantee a furious US response. The Wall Street Journal hopes tariff clarity today will calm markets, and that’s the White House view too. However, then we all have to wait and see what happens re: counter-tariffs, which seem inevitable --Europe is talking in suitably Churchillian terms again-- and then what the US does in the trade space in response, and outside it to those who don’t see trade is now connected to things like US security umbrellas. In short, we need to quote Winnie again: “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” Yet while D-Day was a very brave and uncertain exercise, the underlying dynamic of US and Soviet military production vs. German and Japanese made the ultimate outcome of WW2 inevitable, just as the ideological split between the US and the Soviets would always then split the world in a different way afterwards. You can’t focus on just one front, no matter how dramatic, but always need to see the entire theatre of operations. Place US tariffs in the context of a ‘grand macro strategy’ to retain global hegemony as it is now massively outproduced by China, which is allied with Russia and Iran, and you can again see the risks: global bifurcation that makes any one US tariff like a pebble on a Normandy beach. Economic models that project the rest of the world trading more with each other in the absence of the US market are just that – models. The actual world economy will not work like that. As such, if the US goes it alone today, it implies certain uncertainty; and if it tries to lever others to join it against China, it implies different but equally certain uncertainty. That’s as: China just rehearsed encircling and blockading Taiwan again with more ships and jets. Recall the US Department of Defence memo leak said this is now its national security focus. Europe’s Von der Leyen, talking about fighting on the beaches vs the US tariffs, said nothing, but has spoken very bluntly on this in the past: but what would the EU do in a worst-case scenario if it’s also preparing to fight Russia and shooting back in a US trade war? Russia won’t accept US peace proposals on Ukraine in their current form; the US may impose secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil or even interdict the shadow fleet operating out of the Baltic as a response. The US CENTCOM chief was in Tel Aviv for 10-hour discussions, as the Pentagon orders more firepower to the Middle East. Russia says bombing Iran's nuclear infrastructure "will have repercussions for the entire region." And, depending on what Iran might do to others under any attack, not only for that region. US National Security Advisor Waltz, with the Signal scandal still swirling round him, is accused of conducting government business over his personal Gmail account. Is this a shotgun to his own foot, again, or friendly fire? How much longer will Waltz be around, and who might replace him if he goes? Even the current data are uncertain. After yesterday’s US ISM data showing weak new orders and employment and a surge in prices paid, the Atlanta Fed now sees US GDP in Q1 at -3.7%. It’s not as bad stripping out recent gold imports, or all the other imports surging into the US to front-run tariffs. But it isn’t good. Once again, central banks have no idea what to do and are clearly just hoping for the best. The Fed’s Goolsbee warned about a slowdown in consumer spending and business investment due to tariff uncertainty, which he sees may have a longer-lasting impact on prices than expected due to retaliatory tariffs and their effect on intermediate goods. That sounds like a long way to say “stagflation.” Meanwhile, Eric and Donald Trump, Jr. launched a Bitcoin mining firm and talked crypto up. Is this all-American speculation, Trumpian grifting, or a signal on a future US policy pivot towards a neutral reserve asset? Moreover, gold prices hit a new nominal record high of $3,133, up 37.5% over a year in which some were/are still thinking about “rate cuts!” If that doesn’t underline the structural uncertainty we are dealing with, not a lot does. Let’s finish by paraphrasing Winston once more: markets are drunk on uncertainty today, and tomorrow they may be sober, but the global backdrop will still be ugly. Allow me to add: “By diligent effort, they must learn to like it.” Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 09:30
Kitchen Sink? Tesla Delivers 336,681 Vehicles In Q1, Missing Wall Street's Lowest Expectations
1743599700 from ZEROHEDGE
Kitchen Sink? Tesla Delivers 336,681 Vehicles In Q1, Missing Wall Street's Lowest Expectations This morning Tesla announced Q1 deliveries of 336,681 vehicles, falling below even the lowest expectations that Wall Street had set for the automaker and marking a -13% plunge in deliveries from the year prior period. In its press release, Tesla said "the changeover of Model Y lines across all four of our factories led to the loss of several weeks of production in Q1," but then added that "the ramp of the New Model Y continues to go well." While FactSet's consensus forecast projected 408,000 Q1 Tesla deliveries—a 5% year-over-year increase—recent signals suggested a decline instead. Wall Street consensus estimates reported by Reuters had expected Tesla to report roughly 373,000 vehicle deliveries for Q1—down 3.6% from the same period the previous year. Some analysts, however, believed the actual figure might be closer to 350,000 or lower. Major banks like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and UBS cut estimates to between 351,000 and 375,000. Prediction market Kalshi expected 353,000, marking a 9% drop. No one had a number in the 330k region. The company reported 12,881 deliveries of its other models, including its Cybertruck, Model S and Model X. Analysts at Deutsche Bank had predicted as few as 340,000 deliveries, while Tesla's declining sales in key markets like China and Europe further fueled skepticism. Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Tesla shareholder Globalt Investments had told Reuters: "I think that the numbers are going to come in below 400,000 and, maybe as low as 350,000." After Tesla’s first annual delivery drop in 2024, Elon Musk vowed a return to growth. Wall Street was closely watching whether Model Y updates and new incentives would help. Tesla faces both growing competition abroad and backlash at home, particularly over Musk’s political ties and role in federal spending cuts under President Trump. This has alienated many left-leaning customers, with trade-ins hitting record highs. "We have seen major brand deterioration of Tesla across the entire world essentially," said Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, told Reuters earlier today. "The brand has become far more politicized than any public company's brand should wish to be." The only question now is whether Tesla has "kitchen sinked" this quarter to try and post a better looking rest of the year, as it has already been reported that Elon Musk will likely move on from DOGE and back to the company heading into the middle of 2025... * * * Best sellers at ZH Store: IQ Biologix Colostrum (25% IgG from first milking of grassfed cows) IQ Astaxanthin Ultimate Antioxidant (6,000x stronger than vitamin C) ZeroHedge Multitool (Extremely solid, very sharp, comes with ZH Logo belt pouch) Anza Red-Black Infinity Handle Knife (Made in the USA from carbon steel) Click picture, check out knife... Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 09:15
Bipartisan Senators Prepare 500% Uranium, Oil Tariffs If Russia Doesn't Negotiate
1743598800 from ZEROHEDGE
Bipartisan Senators Prepare 500% Uranium, Oil Tariffs If Russia Doesn't Negotiate A bipartisan group of US senators have prepared an anti-Russia sanctions nuclear option in the case that Moscow refuses to sign on to Trump efforts to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war. The 50 Republicans and Democrats which introduced the sanctions package Tuesday are led by Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal, and their bill would impose a 500% tariff on imported goods from countries that buy Russian oil, gas, uranium and several other products. American citizens would also be prohibited from buying Russian sovereign debt. "The sanctions against Russia require tariffs on countries who purchase Russian oil, gas, uranium and other products. They are hard hitting for a reason," the Senators wrote in a Tuesday statement. Getty Images "These sanctions against Russia are at the ready and will receive overwhelming bipartisan, bicameral support if presented to the Senate and House for a vote," they added. "The dominating view in the United States Senate is that Russia is the aggressor, and that this horrific war and Putin’s aggression must end now and be deterred in the future." This in part springs from growing concern that despite President Trump's good-faith efforts, even dangling the possibility of dropping sanctions to get the Kremlin quickly to the negotiating table, Moscow is intentionally stalling while it presses the war forward. President Trump told reporters over the weekend aboard Air Force one of Putin and his officials, "If I think they’re tapping us along, I will not be happy about it." China and India would come under the immediate crosshairs, as they've remained top importers of Russian oil since the start of the Ukraine war. However, the bill leaves open the option of granting presidential waivers on national security grounds, with Bloomberg pointing to the likely chance of a "confrontation" with India and China over the secondary sanctions and the "difficult position" the EU has found itself in. In Europe, the lure of a return to cheap Russian energy is ever-present, and as we noted, senior German politicians are already calling for a resumption of ties with Russia. For example Michael Kretschmer, a senior member of Friedrich Merz’s centre-right Christian Democrats, is now arguing that EU sanctions on Russia are "completely out of date" as they increasingly openly contradict "what the Americans are doing." Financial Times in a report quoted Kretschmer's words to the German press agency DPA as follows: "When you realize that you’re weakening yourself more than your opponent, then you have to think about whether all of this is right." 50 US Senators have introduced a bill that includes the most intense Russia sanctions to date including a 500% (!) additional tariff on any countries buying Russian hydrocarbons & uranium, putting SWIFT into law, and perma-freezing Russian sovereign debt & securities. Wow. pic.twitter.com/Mg8hJIN1oY — Maximilian Hess (@zakavkaza) April 2, 2025 At the same time, Hungary and Slovakia not only continue bypassing Ukraine for imports of Russian gas - after Ukraine broke from the transit of Russian gas on January 1st - but are actually boosting these supplies. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto announced on Tuesday that the Veľké Zlievce/Balassagyarmat interconnection point from Hungary to Slovakia has been brought to full capacity this week due to the stoppage through Ukraine. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 09:00
Unearthed FBI Chat Logs Reveal 'Gag Order' On Biden Laptop Exposé
1743597600 from ZEROHEDGE
Unearthed FBI Chat Logs Reveal 'Gag Order' On Biden Laptop Exposé Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA, Internal FBI chat logs revealed that the bureau imposed a “gag order” on agents regarding the New York Post bombshell story on the Hunter Biden laptop. Along with showing Hunter’s depravity, the laptop revealed Joe Biden’s involvement in his son’s foreign business dealings. The chat logs, published Tuesday by the House Judiciary Committee on X, show that the gag order extended to an FBI analyst who attempted to alert social media companies that the laptop was authentic—before these companies moved to censor the story’s spread. The FBI had Hunter Biden’s laptop, but on the day the NY Post story came out, the FBI refused to tell Big Tech the truth. — House Judiciary GOP 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 (@JudiciaryGOP) April 1, 2025 On Oct. 14, 2020, the New York Post released its first story on the laptop’s content. That same day, FBI officials instructed agents, “please do not discuss Biden matter.” Earlier chats show a group of agents—including Laura Dehmlow, Bradley Benavides and James Dennehy—debating the Post’s story. “You guys are tracking the coverage of the laptop right?” Dehmlow wrote. Both Benavides and Dennehy replied affirmatively. Later, agents whose names remain sealed sent messages stating, “right answer – nobody on call is is [sic] authorized to comment upon NY Post story” and “nobody [is] authorized to comment.” One agent asked if another had “admonished” the colleague who nearly revealed the laptop’s authenticity to Big Tech companies. “yes but he wont [sic] shut up,” one response read. Hours later, agents reiterated that they were forbidden from commenting on the laptop story, with messages like “official response no commen [sic] and “we cannot comment.” A previous transcribed interview with Dehmlow revealed that during a Zoom meeting with Big Tech, an FBI agent was interrupted before he could confirm the laptop was real and already in the bureau’s possession. The FBI had verified the laptop in 2019 by cross-referencing its serial number with Hunter’s iCloud storage, FBI special agent Erika Jensen stated during Hunter’s criminal trial in 2024. Despite this verification, the bureau remained silent while social media companies debated whether the Post’s story was tied to a Russian disinformation campaign. Notably, the FBI had warned them weeks earlier of an imminent “hack-and-leak” story about the 2020 election, leading many to mistakenly equate that warning with the laptop exposé. The laptop revealed that while Hunter failed to pay millions in taxes, he also consumed drugs, paid for prostitutes and launched what Republicans call an “influence-peddling scheme” aimed at selling access—or at least the appearance of access—to Joe Biden in exchange for payments. According to the laptop, 10% of these payments were earmarked for the “Big Guy,” a term confirmed by former Biden ally Devon Archer to refer to Joe Biden. Biden went on to win the 2020 election, and before leaving office in 2025, he issued sweeping pardons to his siblings and Hunter, covering offenses committed between 2014 and 2025. Read the full House Judiciary Committee’s X thread on the chatlogs: The Committee had testimony from key FBI personnel, but until now, the FBI refused to produce the internal communications from that day in unclassified form for the American public to see. pic.twitter.com/I5uGnJICVM — House Judiciary GOP 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 (@JudiciaryGOP) April 1, 2025 The internal FBI chat log also shows how far senior FBI officials went to silence this analyst. After the meeting, a senior FBI lawyer put a “gag order” on the analyst. pic.twitter.com/9AzXIl565B — House Judiciary GOP 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 (@JudiciaryGOP) April 1, 2025 Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 08:40
Is Trump's Plan Working? ADP Shows Biggest Jump In US Manufacturing Jobs Since Oct 2022
1743596804 from ZEROHEDGE
Is Trump's Plan Working? ADP Shows Biggest Jump In US Manufacturing Jobs Since Oct 2022 Despite the ongoing strength in jobless claims data, fears are growing in the soft data that Friday's payrolls print might be a game-changer. Today, we get a glimpse of what's possible as, following last month's 'weak' report, ADP's Employment shows the US economy added 155k jobs in March (more than the 120k expected and almost double the 77k added in February)... Source: Bloomberg So, once again, the soft data and constant mainstream narrative of recession is crushed by the hard data. "Despite policy uncertainty and downbeat consumers, the bottom line is this: The March topline number was a good one for the economy and employers of all sizes, if not necessarily all sectors," said Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP Is it just us, or can you sense the disappointment in her statement that the US economy didn't implode? Service industry jobs showed a major rebound from weakness in February while goods-producing job additions slowed... Source: Bloomberg Manufacturers added 21k jobs in March - the biggest addition since Oct 2022... Source: Bloomberg The other piece of 'good' news is that wage growth slowed for both job-stayers and job-changers... Source: Bloomberg So much for runaway inflationary pressure and recessionary labor market stagnation... and the surge in manufacturing jobs suggests Trump's plan is working? Is Trump's plan to reshore manufacturing already working: biggest increase in manufacturing jobs since October 22, which was followed by a 2 year manufacturing recession. pic.twitter.com/7iyA11BSRr — zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 2, 2025 Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 08:26
Futures Slide As Markets Await "Liberation Day" Details
1743595589 from ZEROHEDGE
Futures Slide As Markets Await "Liberation Day" Details Stocks resumed their slide and Treasury yields held near one-month lows with just hours to go before President Trump’s tariffs tariff announcement, amid swirling speculation over the details of the proposed trade action. As of 8:00am, S&P futures traded 0.5% lower; tech underperformed sending Nasdaq futs down 0.7% with Mag 7 all lower with TSLA (-1.0%) and NVDA (-0.6%) being the biggest laggards; Newsmax dropped 25%, pausing a blinding IPO rally that briefly pushed the company above Fox Corp. European and Asian stocks both slumped. The Dollar sank and the yield on 10-year Treasuries was steady after falling on Tuesday to the lowest since early-March. Commodities are mixed: base metals are lower, while precious metals are mostly higher (silver +1.0%) and gold just shy of its record high. All eyes on the Rose Garden event “Make American Wealthy Again” at 4PM with Trump delivering his announcement on tariffs. On today's data calendar, we get ADP (exp. 120k) and Factory Orders (0.5%, ex trans 0.4%). In premarket trading, Tesla is leading losses among the Mag 7 (Alphabet -0.5%, Amazon -0.9%, Apple -0.4%, Microsoft -0.5%, Meta -0.9%, Nvidia -1.6% and Tesla -2.6%). Edgewise Therapeutics (EWTX) tumbles 29% after posting top-line data in its phase 2 study of EDG-7500. Newsmax (NMAX) drops 20% as the conservative media outlet pauses its blinding IPO rally which saw shares surge 2,230% since its debut this week. Here are some other notable premarket movers: NCino (NCNO) slides 34% after the software company gave a weaker-than-expected outlook. Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) slips 2% after registering a direct offering of 2.7m shares, with the offering priced at $19.06 each. Truist Financial Corp. (TFC) slips 1% after Raymond James cut the recommendation on the financial services firm ahead of the upcoming earnings, with analyst Michael Rose saying he “would not be surprised to see episodes of reduced financial guidance, leading to negative revisions to EPS estimates during the April reporting season.” TTEC Holdings (TTEC) soars 27% as the IT services company said it’s open to discussing CEO Kenneth Tuchman’s offer to buy the remaining shares he and his affiliates don’t already own at $6.85 per share. Trump is due to reveal his tariff plans in the White House Rose Garden just as US markets close at 4 p.m. Several proposals are said to be under consideration, including a tiered tariff system with a set of flat rates for countries, as well as a more customized reciprocal plan. Bloomberg reports that the size and scope of tariffs have still to be finalized. The White House has said the tariffs would take immediate effect, but that Trump was open to subsequent negotiation. The lack of clarity doesn’t bode well for risk sentiment heading into the event, scheduled for 4pm ET. Central bankers are also expressing caution. Richmond Fed chief Barkin said tariffs could raise both inflation and unemployment in a “cage match” between consumers and businesses. Chicago Fed chief Goolsbee said that if tariffs lead to lower consumer spending, “that would be a bit of a mess.” Sure enough, according to Goldman's Prime Brokerage, hedge funds reduced exposure to global equities in March, with the most net selling in 12 years. “There isn’t anywhere to purely hide, because of the huge uncertainty that is in the market at the moment,” said Helen Jewell, chief investment officer of fundamental equities EMEA at BlackRock. Jewell does not expect the confusion to dissipate after Trump’s announcement. “It is very much the opposite,” she said. “It just keeps that risk in the market and it kicks that risk can down the road.” Meanwhile, China took steps to restrict local companies from investing in the US, Bloomberg reported; that comes a day after the European Commission vowed to retaliate against US tariff moves. “Perhaps the most important question is whether this announcement will tip the scales toward a global recession,” said Oliver Blackbourn, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors. A quiet earnings week continues. Uniform maker UniFirst (UNF US) reports premarket and may offer clues on the impact from DOGE job cuts. Tesla 1Q deliveries are also due. Analysts expect Musk’s company to have delivered around 390,000 cars, potentially its worst quarter in a year. Europe's Stoxx 600 fell 0.7% ahead of Trump’s tariffs announcement, with healthcare stocks among the biggest losers as mass layoffs at the US Department of Health sowed uncertainty over the outlook for vaccines and gene therapies. Among single stocks, Mercedes-Benz Group AG fell after Bloomberg reported the automaker could withdraw its least expensive cars from the US if tariffs make their sales unfeasible. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday: Grifols advances 10% in Madrid trading after El Confidencial reported that Brookfield has restarted contact with the Spanish plasma company on a possible buyout offer after a first attempt failed last year The Stoxx 600 Food & Beverage index is the best-performer in Europe this morning, after Berenberg reiniated coverage of the sector; Biggest points-gainers include Diageo (+1.8%), Pernod Ricard (+0.8%), AB InBev (+0.2%) and Heineken (0.4%) Bakkavor shares rise as much as 6.9%, hitting their highest level since 2018, after reaching an agreement in principle on a new £1.2 billion offer from fellow London-listed Greencore Group. Analysts welcome the idea Svitzer gains as much as 32%, the most since its May 2024 spinoff from Maersk, after the Danish marine services firm received a DKK9 billion ($1.3 billion) takeover offer from AP Moller Holding at DKK285 per share Raspberry Pi shares rise as much as 10% after the British PC maker said it expects demand to improve through the year from subdued levels of mid-2024, given inventory levels now “normalized” Barco shares rise as much as 9.3%, hitting their highest level since May, after analysts at ING Bank upgraded the visualization specialist, arguing it is a “far more attractive company” now growth is back on Friedrich Vorwerk shares rise as much as 4.6% to a record high after Berenberg hiked its price target on the stock to a Street high, citing a long growth runway and double-digit margin growth in the next year Chemring shares rise as much as 4.9% after its Roke unit won a UK missile defense contract worth £251m over six years. The contract starts immediately and covers a broad spectrum of missile defense activities European healthcare stocks drop on Wednesday and are the worst performing subgroup in the Stoxx 600 Index, as investors await further clarity on potential tariffs BNP Paribas and Societe Generale shares both fall about 3% in Paris as Kepler Cheuvreux downgrades its ratings on the French lenders following recent rallies Tryg falls as much as 5.6%, the most since January 23, after Citi downgraded the insurance firm to neutral from buy on news that the Danish Competition Council announced a possible review of consumer insurance firms Norma shares fall as much as 6.8%, hitting the lowest level since late November, after Quirin Privatbank downgraded the German component maker to sell and set a Street-low price target Earlier in the session, Asian equities also fell as investor sentiment remained volatile. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.1%, reversing from a 0.8% gain in the previous day. Xiaomi, Sony Group and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial weighed the most on the gauge, while Recruit Holdings and Fast Retailing provided the biggest boosts. Performances in the region were mixed, with markets in the Philippines and Malaysia gaining the most, while South Korean shares underperformed. The country’s small-cap index Kosdaq lost 1%. Japan’s benchmark Topix also slid 0.4%. Indonesia’s market was shut for a holiday. “Investors are very anxious, and markets are waiting with bated breath to see what he will say and do later today,” Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC, wrote in a note. “The best strategy at this juncture is not to panic, but instead to focus on the medium term and manage risk by keeping a diversified portfolio and time-diversifying fresh investments via dollar cost averaging.” In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slips 0.1%, down a second day as antipodean currencies outperform, with the kiwi dollar up 0.8% against the greenback. EUR/USD climbs 0.1% to 1.0800; Governing Council member Olli Rehn reiterated that the ECB isn’t pre-committing to any particular path on interest rates. Aussie and kiwi advanced in part on buying from exporters hedging out of US dollars on the premise that reciprocal tariffs will be more centered than harsh, according to Asia-based FX traders. Low engagement from the leveraged community ahead of the announcement remains the main theme in the major currencies, according to traders in Europe and Asia. Traders undecided on what’s next for the G-4 space also seen through price action unfolding lately close to 21-DMAs. In rates, treasuries extend gains into the early US session, leaving futures near the highs of the day and yields lower by up to 3bp across the belly of the curve, which leads gains on the day. US yields are richer by 1bp to 3bp across the curve, with 5s30s spread sitting near highs of the day and steeper by 1.5bp, unwinding a portion of a sharp two-day flattening move seen so far this week; US 10-year yields trade near lows at around 4.15%, remain inside Tuesday’s range. Bunds are little changed while Gilts underperform as UK 10-year yields climb 2 bps. In commodities, spot gold rises $17 to $3,130/oz. Bitcoin pared an earlier fall to trade little changed near $85,000. WTI is steady around $71 a barrel. The US economic calendar includes March ADP employment change (8:15am), February factory orders and durable goods orders (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Kugler at 4:30pm Market Snapshot S&P 500 mini -0.6%, Nasdaq 100 mini -0.8%, Russell 2000 mini -0.6% Stoxx Europe 600 -0.7%, DAX -1%, CAC 40 -0.4% 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.17% VIX +0.5 points at 22.27 Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1272.15, euro little changed at $1.0801 WTI crude -0.2% at $71.05/barrel Top Overnight News Donald Trump’s team is still finalizing plans for reciprocal tariffs to be unveiled at 4 p.m., people familiar said. Proposals include a tiered system with a set of flat rates for countries and a more customized plan. Scott Bessent told lawmakers the tariffs will start at their highest level and countries can then take steps to bring them down. BBG Planned new U.S. tariffs could have a huge impact on world trade, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Wednesday, warning of a possible hit to global growth hours before President Donald Trump is set to unveil reciprocal tariffs. RTRS A group of 50 Republican and Democratic senators introduced a sanctions package to hit Russia and countries that buy its oil if President Vladimir Putin refuses to engage in good-faith ceasefire negotiations with Ukraine or breaches an eventual agreement: BBG Walmart Inc. is continuing to push Chinese suppliers to cut prices by 10% to offset President Donald Trump’s tariffs, even after Beijing officials summoned the US retailer’s executives last month to discuss the issue. BBG Democrat wins the Wisconsin judicial race by ~9 points, a solid victory and one that raises a red flag for Republicans. Also, Republicans easily won both Florida special House elections, as expected, although the GOP underperformed the Nov margins of victory, raising potential warning signs for the party. Politico Izzy Englander’s Millennium Management and Ken Griffin’s Citadel lost money last quarter even as other hedge funds gained: BBG China has taken steps to restrict local companies from investing in the US ahead of new tariffs, people familiar said. Several branches of China’s top economic planning agency have been instructed in recent weeks to hold off on registration and approval for such firms. BBG China highlighted US farmers and tech companies as beneficiaries of economic ties in the Communist Party’s official newspaper, an apparent appeal to cool trade tensions ahead of tariffs. BBG China held a second day of drills around Taiwan, involving “precision strikes” on simulated targets including ports and energy facilities. BBG Israel will broaden its ground operations in Gaza and turn seized land into buffer zones. Meanwhile, the Pentagon is deploying a second carrier to the Middle East as the US continues its strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen. BBG US crude inventories jumped by 6 million barrels last week, the API is said to have reported. That would be the biggest surge in eight weeks if confirmed by the EIA today. Supplies at Cushing climbed for the first time in four weeks. BBG A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Tariffs/Trade USTR reportedly prepares a new tariff option for US President Trump which is "an across-the-board tariff on a subset of nations that likely would not be as high as the 20% universal tariff option", according to WSJ. US President Trump's tariff plans are "coming down to the wire" with his team reportedly still finalising the size and scope of the new levies, according to Bloomberg. US Treasury Secretary Bessent told lawmakers that Wednesday's tariffs are a 'cap', according to a CNBC reporter cited by Reuters. On UK-US tariffs, "Sounds like any hopes of a last-ditch concession from Donald Trump ahead of his tariffs announcement are fading", according to Times' Swinford; although a deal could be signed as soon as next week "Keir Starmer is not planning to speak to him today, but there are hopes that the economic deal giving Britain a carve-out can be signed as soon as next week. Sources talking about 'days or weeks'" "But in truth No 10 doesn't know what Trump is planning or when concessions could be made. All deeply uncertain this morning". Canada is to avoid counter-tariffs that risk Canadian jobs and price hikes and it won't impose retaliation tariffs on most US food and other basic necessities, according to the Globe and Mail citing two federal trade advisers. Thai Commerce Ministry said Thai semiconductors may face 25% US tariffs and noted that Thai tariffs are 11% higher than US tariffs, while it added Thailand may see an impact of USD 7bln-8bln from US reciprocal tariffs but announced it will increase imports of US goods and plans tariff cuts for US products. French Industry Minister reaffirms that Europe will respond to Trump tariffs in a proportionate manner; says Europe must show strength and be less naive APAC stocks were mostly positive but with the major indices stuck within narrow parameters as participants awaited US President Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement scheduled later today. ASX 200 eked modest gains as strength in the real estate, tech and consumer discretionary sectors just about atoned for the losses in mining, resources and materials, while Building Approvals data from Australia printed better-than-feared. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively and wiped out most of its early gains as Japanese exporters braced for incoming US tariffs. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid tariff uncertainty with China among the countries anticipated to announce an immediate retaliation to Trump's incoming tariffs, while China also awaits details regarding the US review of the 'Phase One' deal. Top Asian News Standard Chartered raised its China 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.8% from 4.5%. China's Commerce Ministry says the anti-dumping investigation into EU brandy has been extended to July 5th (from April 5th). US President Trump will consider a final proposal for TikTok on Wednesday and his administration is finalising plans for potential investors that could include Blackstone (BX) and Oracle (ORCL), according to CBS News. It was separately reported that President Trump is expected to meet senior cabinet officials and the Vice President to discuss potential investors for TikTok. US Senate Committee reviewing Meta (META) alleged efforts to build censorship tools for China as part of an attempt to gain entry to Chinese markets, according to a letter seen by Reuters. Fast Retailing (9983 JT) reports March domestic UNIQLO sales +11.5% Y/Y. European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.9%) opened lower, despite a mostly positive picture in APAC trade and as traders remain focused on the looming reciprocal tariff announcements on “Liberation Day”. Price action has really only been downwards today, with a more pronounced bout of pressure appearing mid-morning though this has since stabilised a touch. European sectors hold a strong negative bias, in-fitting with the risk tone. Healthcare is the clear underperformer today, but with no clear stock driving the losses; the pressure is seemingly in tandem with the downside seen across US peers in the prior session, and perhaps some fears regarding potential pharmaceutical tariffs. Top European News ECB's Rehn says the ECB is not committing to any particular path; disinflation is on track, and growth outlook weakened, the bank will maintain complete freedom of action. Trade protectionism is a key risk to the economic outlook. ECB's President Lagarde says inflation is very close to the target but there is still some work to do. German banks' association said Germany's economy is expected to grow by 0.2% this year and 1.4% next year. FX DXY is flat vs. peers as markets brace for US President Trump's "Liberation Day" announcement at 21:00BST/16:00EDT. Ahead of which, CNBC reported that Trump is looking at three main options which are, 1) blanket 20% tariffs, 2) a tiered system of three different rates and 3) country-by-country rates; an official noted blanket 20% tariffs was the least likely option. Thereafter, a WSJ article noted that the USTR was preparing a new tariff option for Trump of "an across-the-board tariff on a subset of nations that likely would not be as high as the 20% universal tariff option". Note, ahead of the announcement, US Commerce Secretary Lutnick could provide some insight on the matter during an interview on Bloomberg TV at 13:30BST. DXY is currently tucked within Tuesday's 104.01-36 range. EUR is flat vs. the USD and holding just below the 1.08 mark as the Bloc braces for the fallout of the US "Liberation Day". As it stands, the EU retaliated to the Trump administration's steel and aluminium levies with countermeasure” on up to EUR 26bln worth of US goods. Commentary via ECB's Lagarde and Rehn have added little fresh for the Single-currency. Today's EZ docket is light in terms of data but heavy on speakers with the slate including ECB's Lagarde, Schnabel, Lane, Holzmann and Escriva. JPY is flat vs. the USD after USD/JPY topped out at the 150 mark. Fresh newsflow out of Japan has been on the light side as markets await details of the Trump tariff regime later today. USD/JPY remains caged within Tuesday's 148.97-150.14 bounds. GBP is flat vs. the USD and EUR with incremental macro drivers for the UK on the light side. Of course, the main focus for today's session will be the severity of the Trump administration's tariff plans. The Times' Swinford suggested that "any hopes of a last-ditch concession from Donald Trump ahead of his tariffs announcement are fading". Cable is currently holding above the 1.29 mark. Antipodeans have extended on Tuesday's upward momentum which was facilitated as risk sentiment improved stateside and with Australian buildings approval data showing a narrower-than-feared contraction. That being said, it is worth noting that the Trump tariff announcement carries a lot of risk for AUD and NZD given that China (both nations largest trading partner) is very much in the crosshairs of the US administration. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1793 vs exp. 7.2663 (Prev. 7.1775). Fixed Income USTs are largely in a holding pattern overnight after coming under pressure in the US afternoon/evening on the more favourable tariff reports via CNBC, marked a 111-15 overnight low. More recently, modest upside occurred in the early European morning as the general tone deteriorated a touch. Ahead, markets will await trade updates from Commerce Secretary Lutnick at 08:30 EDT and then President Trump at 16:00 EDT. US data by way of ADP and Factory Orders is also due today, but ultimately may play second fiddle on "Liberation Day". Bunds are a touch firmer, the narrative is much the same as the above, though Bunds picked up slightly more than their US peer as the risk tone deteriorated in the early morning and have moved back into the green. Ahead a German 2035 Bund Auction and then a few ECB speakers are due - but focus will ultimately be on trade updates. Currently at the top-end of a 129.11-45 band, which is entirely within Tuesday’s 128.68-129.60 range. Gilts are in-fitting with the above though the bounce seen early doors, which took Bunds into the green as discussed, was only sufficient to cause Gilts to gap higher by five ticks and extend another two to a 92.15 peak. A high point which is shy of Tuesday’s 92.45 best. Tariffs dominate the narrative as we await Trump’s announcement. On the UK-US economic deal the Times’ Swinford reports that hopes of any last minute concessions for the UK are fading with no plans for the leaders to speak today. UK sells GBP 1.6bln 1.125% 2035 I/L Gilt : b/c 3.36x (prev. 3.52x) and real yield 1.268% (prev. 1.115%) Commodities Softer trade across the crude complex amid the cautious risk sentiment heading into the "Liberation Day" tariff announcement by US President Trump and after the significant private inventory build. Continued expansion into Gaza by Israel's army, and punchy rhetoric via President Trump who believes Russian President Putin is stalling has failed to help push up prices. More recently, Axios reported that US President Trump is reportedly seriously considering Iran's offer of indirect nuclear talks - again failing to spur price action. Brent June trades in a USD 73.95-74.62/bbl parameter. Spot gold remains on a firmer footing after rebounding from the prior day's trough amid uncertainty ahead of the looming US reciprocal tariffs. Spot gold resides in a current USD 3,106.70-3,135.80/oz range. Copper futures eke mild gains but with the upside capped amid the mixed and cautious mood on 'Liberation Day'. Price action has been relatively contained for base metals thus far. 3M LME copper trades in a current USD 9,672.00-9,754.55/t range. US Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +6.0mln (exp. -2.1mln), Distillate -0.0mln (exp. -1.0mln), Gasoline -1.6mln (exp. -1.7mln), Cushing +2.2mln. China's NDRC is to increase retail gasoline prices by CNY 230/ton and diesel by CNY 220/ton, effective April 3rd. Geopolitics: Middle East US President Trump is reportedly seriously considering Iran's offer of indirect nuclear talks, while at the same time significantly boosting US forces in the Middle East in case the US opts for military strikes, according to Axios; no decisions made "A US official said Trump doesn't want to go to war with Iran but needs the military assets to establish deterrence in the negotiations — and to be prepared to act if negotiations fail and things escalate quickly." Israel's army launched heavy raids on the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, according to Sky News Arabia. Israeli Defence Minister said they are expanding the operation in Gaza to seize large areas that would be added to the security zones of Israel and announced a large-scale evacuation of the Gaza population from fighting areas. US Defence Secretary Hegseth ordered additional air assets to strengthen their Middle East military posture. US conducted three new airstrikes on Saada in northern Yemen, according to Houthi-affiliated media cited by Al Jazeera. Geopolitics: Ukraine Bipartisan group of 50 Senators introduced a new sanctions measure which includes 500% duties against countries that purchase Russian oil, gas and uranium if Moscow refuses to participate in the peace process in Ukraine. Russian Defence Ministry says Ukraine attacked Russian energy facilities twice during the past 24 hours, via Ifax. Geopolitics: Other China's military conducted exercises in the middle and southern areas of the Taiwan Strait with exercises codenamed 'Strait Thunder 2025A', according to Xinhua. Furthermore, China's Eastern Theatre Command said it carried out long-range live fire shooting drills in waters of East China which involved precision strikes on simulated targets of key ports and energy facilities which achieved the desired effects. US Event Calendar 7:00 am: Mar 28 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -2% 8:15 am: Mar ADP Employment Change, est. 120k, prior 77k 10:00 am: Feb Factory Orders, est. 0.5%, prior 1.7% Feb F Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.9%, prior 0.9% Feb F Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.7%, prior 0.7% Feb F Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior -0.3% Feb F Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.9% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap The centre of the universe today will be the White House Rose Garden where we will finally hear about reciprocal tariffs. The announcements are due to take place at 4pm Eastern Time (9pm London), with the White House press secretary saying yesterday that the measures would be effective immediately. We clearly don’t know any of the details, including which countries will be targeted and at what rate, with reporting yesterday suggesting that a final decision was still to be made. The Washington Post reported that White House aides had proposed tariffs of around 20% on most imports. And despite speculation it might just affect 10-15 key trading partners, President Trump said over the weekend that “You’d start with all countries, so let’s see what happens”, which pointed towards a broader focus. Meanwhile, the WSJ reported last night that other options under consideration include a more targeted reciprocal plan as well as an across-the-board tariff on a subset of nations. And, according to Bloomberg, a tiered tariff system option could see countries face levies of either 10% or 20% depending on their barriers on US goods. In related news, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent yesterday said that the tariffs announced today would be a cap and that countries would be able to bring them down. This hints at there being routes for negotiation in his eyes. A reminder that my AI summary of Bessent and Lutnick's recent podcast appearances can be found here. These were a fascinating insight into how this administration is thinking about the world. Back to tariffs, and obviously, the prospect of broad-based tariffs would represent a huge shock to the global trading system, and would have some pretty seismic ramifications for the world economy. Last week, our US economists published a note (link here) where they ran through various possibilities. And significantly, they think that in a worst-case scenario where reciprocal tariffs include the entirety of each country’s VAT, that would see US GDP growth down 100-120bps this year relative to their current forecast of +2.3% (Q4/Q4), with core PCE inflation up 90-120bps. Meanwhile for the EU, our economists have estimated (link here) that a 20% tariff rate on all goods (on top of the 25% auto tariffs announced) would lead to a 0.3-0.6% shock for GDP. The other big unknown from here is how other countries might retaliate, even though we have a pretty good sense that they’re likely to do so. After all, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said yesterday that “If necessary, we have a strong plan to retaliate and will use it.” Over in Canada, Prime Minister Carney said that “We will not disadvantage Canadian producers and Canadian workers relative to American workers”. Moreover, President Trump has already said that any retaliation could be met by further US tariffs, so a key downside risk from here is that this kicks off an escalatory spiral of higher tariffs. Ahead of today’s announcement, fears about stagflation in financial markets continued to mount even if markets had a pretty positive day yesterday. The stagflation fears were exacerbated by the latest batch of US data, where the ISM manufacturing print fell back into contractionary territory with a 49.0 print (vs. 49.5 expected). Moreover, the new orders component fell to a 22-month low of 45.2, whilst the prices paid component surged to 69.4, which is the highest it’s been since June 2022. The weaker ISM release saw the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Q1 estimate (adjusting for trade in gold) fall to a new low of -1.4%, while the model’s estimate of real private domestic final sales, which are much less distorted by trade volatility, fell to a still positive but weak +0.4%. The data is continuing to support the narrative of weaker growth and higher inflation, with market-based inflation expectations continuing to rise. The US 1yr inflation swap (+0.6bps) moved higher for a seventh session in a row to another two-year high of 3.25%, though it did retreat after trading +5.0bps intra-day. The reversal during the afternoon session may have reflected emergent reporting that more modest tariff options were still in play, which also helped gold prices (-0.17%) post a modest decline after touching an new record high of $3,149/oz intra-day. As a reminder, gold saw its strongest quarterly performance since 1986 in Q1. This was among the notable highlights from Henry's Q1 performance review (link here). For equities, it was another topsy-turvy session, with the S&P 500 recovering from an intraday low of -0.95% to end the day up +0.38%. So a very similar move to Monday. The Magnificent 7 (+1.63%) were the main driver of the rebound, ending a run of 4 consecutive declines, with Tesla (+3.59%) leading the way. Outside of tech, it was a pretty neutral day, with the Dow Jones (-0.03%) and the Russell 2000 (+0.02%) little changed. Meanwhile in Europe, there were even stronger moves, with the STOXX 600 (+1.07%) and the DAX (+1.70%) posting their strongest performances in over two weeks. Elsewhere, US Treasuries continued to rally as ongoing growth fears helped yields to grind lower. For instance, the 2yr yield (-0.2bps) inched down to 3.88%, its lowest level since October, whilst the 10yr yield (-3.7bps) fell back to 4.17%. The fact investors were fearful about growth was evident from the ongoing decline in real yields, with the 2yr real yield (-1.3bps) down to its lowest since August 2022, at 0.59%. Over in Europe, sovereign bonds also rallied after the latest Euro Area inflation data was seen as paving the way for more ECB rate cuts. For instance, CPI fell back to +2.2% in March on the flash reading, in line with expectations. And in more dovish news, the core CPI reading fell to +2.4% (vs. +2.5% expected), which is the lowest it’s been since January 2022. So that helped yields to move lower across the continent, with those on 10yr bunds (-5.2bps), OATs (-5.3bps) and BTPs (-7.7bps) all falling. Asian equity markets are pretty quiet ahead of today's big announcement. As I check my screens, the Hang Seng (+0.06%), CSI (+0.15%), Shanghai Composite (+0.23%), Nikkei (+0.15%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.10%) are all edging higher. The KOSPI (-0.62%) is bucking the trend but S&P 500 (-0.13%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.14%) futures are also slightly lower. Early morning data showed that South Korea’s inflation unexpectedly rose to +2.1% y/y in March (vs +1.9% market consensus) as against a +2.0% increase the previous month, thus complicating the Bank of Korea’s rate cut cycle. Finally, we got a few other data releases yesterday, including the US JOLTS report for February. That showed job openings were down to 7.568m (vs. 7.658m expected), which meant the ratio of vacancies per unemployed individuals fell to 1.07, the lowest since September. Otherwise, the quits rate remained steady at 2.0%, as did the hires rate at 3.4%. Separately in the Euro Area, the February unemployment rate came in at 6.1% (vs. 6.2% expected), which is the lowest rate since the single currency’s formation. We also got the final manufacturing PMI for March, which was revised down a tenth from the flash reading to 48.6. To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the ADP’s report of private payrolls for March, and factory orders for February. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Schnabel, Escriva, Holzmann and Lane, along with the Fed’s Kugler. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 08:06
DNC, Schumer Sue Trump Over Order Targeting Illegal Immigrant Voting
1743592800 from ZEROHEDGE
DNC, Schumer Sue Trump Over Order Targeting Illegal Immigrant Voting Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), The Democratic National Committee (DNC) and two top U.S. lawmakers on March 31 sued President Donald Trump over a recent executive order that aims to enforce the law against illegal immigrant voting and election dates. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) in Washington on March 13, 2025. Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images “The Executive Order seeks to impose radical changes on how Americans register to vote, cast a ballot, and participate in our democracy—all of which threaten to disenfranchise lawful voters and none of which is legal,” says the lawsuit, filed by Democratic Party attorney Marc Elias in federal court in Washington. Trump’s March 25 order has multiple sections. Several deal with laws that bar foreigners from registering to vote or from voting in federal elections. Trump directed the independent Election Assistance Commission to require proof of U.S. citizenship in its mail voter registration form, ordered U.S. officials to work with the Department of Government Efficiency to review voter rolls to identify noncitizens who are already registered, and told the U.S. attorney general to prosecute individuals who have illegally registered or voted. Another prong takes aim at how some states in recent years have begun counting mailed ballots that arrive after Election Day, which the order says contravenes federal law. A third portion says the Election Assistance Commission shall stop providing federal funds to states that don’t comply with the laws on election dates and noncitizen voting and voter registration. The U.S. Constitution’s election clause says that states can set election dates, although Congress can alter them. “Outside of the Elections Clause, other provisions in the Constitution place certain requirements and limitations on the regulation of elections—but none allows the President to override the will of the States or Congress in this space,” the new suit states. The legal challenge also says that the Election Assistance Commission is an independent agency over which the president, who appoints commissioners, has no control, and that federal law lets applicants who vote in federal elections attest to citizenship with a signature as opposed to requiring proof from documents such as a passport. In addition to the DNC, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), the top Democrat in the U.S. Senate, and Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), the top Democrat in the U.S. House of Representatives, are plaintiffs in the suit. The Democrats are asking the court to declare that the order violates the Constitution and federal law and block U.S. officials, such as the attorney general, from implementing it. “The Democrats continue to show their disdain for the Constitution and it continues to show in their insane objections to the President’s commonsense executive actions to require proof of U.S. citizenship in an effort to protect the integrity of American elections,“ Harrison Fields, a White House spokesman, told The Epoch Times in an email. ”The Trump administration is standing up for free, fair, and honest elections and asking this basic question is essential to our Constitutional Republic.” Ahead of the 2016 election, Elias helped compile a dossier against Trump. He was named in a different order by Trump that directed officials to take action against lawyers who are violating laws and regulations. Earlier Monday, several organizations filed a separate suit in the same court over the election order, outlining similar arguments. “The president’s executive order is an unlawful action that threatens to uproot our tried-and-tested election systems and silence potentially millions of Americans,“ Danielle Lang, senior director of voting rights at the Campaign Legal Center, which is representing the groups, said in a statement. ”It is simply not within the president’s authority to set election rules by executive decree, especially when they would restrict access to voting in this way.” Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 07:20
White House Prepares TikTok Proposal Meeting Wednesday Ahead Of Deadline
1743591300 from ZEROHEDGE
White House Prepares TikTok Proposal Meeting Wednesday Ahead Of Deadline Ahead of President Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement across all US trading partners later today, the president will meet with senior administration officials to review a final proposal for the Chinese social media app TikTok. The deliberations come before a Saturday deadline, by which TikTok must complete a sale to a non-Chinese entity or face a US ban. CBS News cited sources familiar with the upcoming meeting in the Oval Office that said Vice President JD Vance, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard would be present. It's unclear whether Trump will approve the final proposal today, given that today is "Liberation Day." The report noted that Blackstone and Oracle are potential investors. At the start of Trump's first term, he signed an executive order granting a 75-day extension for TikTok's parent company, ByteDance, to sell the app—used by 170 million Americans—to a US entity or face a nationwide ban. The deadline is Saturday, April 5, bringing the final deal down to the wire. Over the weekend, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, "We have a lot of potential buyers. There's a lot of interest in TikTok. The decision is going to be my decision," adding, "I'd like to see TikTok remain alive." Trump said Monday there was "a lot of enthusiasm for TikTok." In a separate report, the Financial Times said Marc Andreessen's venture capital firm, Andreessen Horowitz, was discussing the purchase of TikTok from ByteDance with Oracle and other investors. Reuters noted, "In the closely watched sale of TikTok, the White House is playing the role of an investment bank, with Vance running the auction." The Trump administration is about to have a hectic week. It will announce reciprocal tariffs later today, and it must also begin finalizing a deal for TikTok as the April 5 deadline looms. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 06:55
Argentina To Declassify Nazi Archives... But Did Hitler Escape There Too?
1743589800 from ZEROHEDGE
Argentina To Declassify Nazi Archives... But Did Hitler Escape There Too? Authored by Jon Fleetwood, In a move both hailed and questioned, Argentine President Javier Milei has ordered the full declassification of secret government files related to Nazis who fled to Argentina after World War II—along with archives from the country’s own military dictatorship. The promise of disclosure follows a broader global trend toward transparency, including the U.S. government’s recent release of long-classified files related to the assassination of President John F. Kennedy—documents that, for decades, were withheld from the public under claims of national security. WATCH: I break down Argentina’s move to declassify Nazi files—and the FBI docs claiming Hitler survived WWII and escaped to Argentina. "Hitler was landed in Argentina approximately June 20 [1945]… his face was disfigured." Full story in the video: 🎥👇#Hitler #Argentina… pic.twitter.com/Q6eq2z8Yz3 — Jon Fleetwood (@JonMFleetwood) March 31, 2025 But with reports of 5,000 Nazis escaping to South America—including top convicted war criminals like Adolf Eichmann and Josef Mengele—some are asking a more explosive question: did Hitler himself survive the war and escape to Argentina? Cabinet Chief Guillermo Francos confirmed that Milei’s order, made after a meeting with U.S. Senator Steve Daines, applies to all Nazi-related documents across state agencies, including Defense Ministry files and financial records long shrouded in secrecy. “President Milei has ordered the publication and declassification of the archives,” Francos said. “These files concern Nazis who sought refuge in Argentina and were protected for many years. These are historical documents that should be accessible to the public.” “There is no reason to continue safeguarding that information,” he added. “These are archives of a part of Argentine history and they have to be public.” The move also revives a long-held claim—dismissed by mainstream historians but not by everyone—that Adolf Hitler didn’t die in Berlin in 1945, but instead fled via Spain and ended up living out his days under protection in South America. The Escape Route Nobody Was Supposed to Talk About Historians have documented the escape of high-profile Nazis to Argentina—Eichmann was captured by Israeli Mossad agents in Buenos Aires in 1960; Mengele died decades later under a false identity in Brazil. So why wouldn’t the same network that protected them also protect Hitler? That’s the question Argentine journalist and author Abel Basti has spent his career trying to answer. In books like Hitler in Exile and Hitler in Argentina, Basti argues that Hitler escaped through a tunnel under Berlin to Tempelhof Airport, fled to Spain, then traveled by submarine to Argentina, where he lived with SS support and the help of sympathetic German immigrants. He cites declassified FBI reports, alleged sightings in Patagonia, and photos he claims show Hitler with known Nazi sympathizers in Argentina. The Eden Hotel in La Falda—a hotspot for Nazi activity in the mid-20th century—is at the center of many of these claims. Basti believes Hitler stayed there with Walter and Ida Eichorn, well-known Nazi loyalists who ran the property. U.S. intel files from the era include dozens of unverified tips about Hitler sightings across South America. Now, Milei’s declassification order may allow researchers—and skeptics—to comb through those files firsthand. FBI Document Reveals Escape Rumors After Hitler’s Death: National Archives As part of a National Archives blog series titled ‘Hunting Hitler,’ two FBI reports released in 2015 revisit mysterious rumors from 1945 suggesting Hitler escaped to Argentina. One report, sent from Buenos Aires on July 14, 1945, claimed that “a source of unknown reliability” said “Hitler was landed in Argentina approximately June 20, that his face was disfigured,” and that an Argentine army major was preparing to escort him to a “secret hiding place in Chaco territory.” The report added, “All rumors being investigated.” A second document, dated August 14 from the FBI in Los Angeles, recounted a claim made by a Hollywood actor, who said a man at a club told him he had a “tremendous problem that was bothering him.” That man allegedly said he “was one of four men who met Hitler and his party when they landed from submarines in Argentina two and a half weeks after the fall of Berlin.” Both documents appear in ‘Hunting Hitler Part VII: The search continues June–September 1945,’ authored by National Archives historian Greg Bradsher. Argentina Wasn’t the Only One Harboring Nazis It’s worth noting that Argentina was not alone in giving shelter to Nazi officials. The United States government—through a covert program known as Operation Paperclip—smuggled more than 1,600 German scientists, engineers, and technicians into the country after the war. Many of these individuals had direct ties to the Nazi regime, and some were connected with war crimes. One of the most famous Paperclip recruits was Wernher von Braun, former SS officer and architect of the Nazi V-2 rocket program, who later became a leading figure in NASA’s Apollo program. U.S. intelligence scrubbed their records and gave them new lives in American institutions of research, military development, and space exploration. If the U.S. was willing to overlook Nazi atrocities in the name of national interest, it raises the question: how many other countries did the same—and what information still hasn’t been revealed? Publicity Stunt or Historic Breakthrough? Critics argue the announcement is little more than political theater. The Libertarian government has already laid off many of the archivists and staff who would handle the release. “So who’s going to do it?” opposition lawmakers asked. “The announcements are pure demagogy,” one local outlet reported. Milei made the announcement last week on Argentina’s National Day of Memory, Truth, and Justice—a holiday marking the start of the country’s 1976-1983 military dictatorship. His administration also vowed to declassify intelligence files from that era, saying “telling the whole story is a crucial task.” Yet, the most consequential revelations may not be about Argentina’s dictatorship—but what the country knew about one of the darkest chapters in world history, and when. Fringe, Fiction, or Classified Fact? Mainstream historians like Richard J. Evans reject the Hitler escape theory as fiction. They point to forensic evidence like Hitler’s dental remains, which match his known records and were confirmed in 2018 by a French-led team examining Soviet archives. Still, questions remain. Why did U.S. intelligence keep thousands of pages of Nazi-related sightings and investigations classified for decades? Why did Argentina offer safe haven to so many convicted war criminals? And why, nearly 80 years later, does the full story remain locked in government vaults? Whether the release of Argentina’s Nazi files will finally put the escape theory to rest—or breathe new life into it—remains to be seen. But for the first time in decades, the files may finally see daylight. And if Milei makes good on his promise, the world may discover just how deep the rabbit hole goes. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 06:30
German Politicians Worry About Their Gold In US Vaults
1743587100 from ZEROHEDGE
German Politicians Worry About Their Gold In US Vaults For decades, the idea that Germany’s gold reserves - some of the largest in the world - might not be safe in the vaults of the New York Federal Reserve would have seemed like the stuff of conspiracy theories. But as the political landscape shifts in Washington - and questions have been raised as to what's actually in US vaults, some German lawmakers are beginning to wonder aloud: Is their gold still secure? Germany holds the second-largest hoard of gold on the planet, surpassed only by the United States itself. Roughly 37 percent of that treasure - some 1,236 metric tons, currently valued at around €113 billion - supposedly lies deep beneath the streets of Manhattan, stored with America’s central bank. For decades, the arrangement was seen as a prudent hedge, offering Germany immediate access to dollar liquidity in the event of a crisis. Now, some in Berlin are rethinking that assumption. "Of course, the question now arises again," Marco Wanderwitz, an outgoing lawmaker from the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), told the German tabloid Bild (owned by POLITICO parent company Axel Springer) last week. Wanderwitz has long harbored doubts about the wisdom of keeping such a significant portion of the country’s wealth abroad. In 2012, he made an unsuccessful push to personally inspect the gold, urging the Bundesbank to act more transparently - or bring the bullion home. Fellow CDU member Markus Ferber, a member of the European Parliament, echoed those sentiments, calling for more rigorous oversight. “Official representatives of the Bundesbank must personally count the bars and document their results,” Ferber told the outlet. These calls come at a time of deepening skepticism toward the institutions that once underpinned Germany’s postwar confidence. The recent decision to discard the so-called “debt brake,” a long-sacrosanct cap on public borrowing, signaled a willingness to rethink long-standing fiscal orthodoxy. The logic behind storing Germany’s gold in New York, once assumed to be self-evident, is now coming under similar scrutiny. Adding to the speculation is Elon Musk and DOGE, who have questioned the authenticity of stated U.S. gold holdings - recently calling for a formal audit of America’s reserves. For the Deutsche Bundesbank, which oversees the management of Germany’s reserves, any suggestion of instability is unwelcome. The central bank has maintained a quiet and resolute stance, rebuffing insinuations of risk. “We have a trustworthy and reliable partner in the Fed in New York for the storage of our gold holdings,” Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said at a press conference in February, a line the bank reiterated when asked for comment on Friday. “It does not keep me awake at night. I have complete confidence in our colleagues at the American central bank.” Famous last words... In 2013, amid a populist outcry and growing eurozone instability, the 'completely confident' Bundesbank repatriated hundreds of tons of gold previously held in Paris - a move that was seen at the time as a symbolic reassertion of sovereignty. The bank argued that, with France and Germany sharing the euro, the strategic rationale for keeping reserves in Paris had faded. Now, more than half of Germany’s gold sits safely in Frankfurt. Thirteen percent is held in London. But it is the tranche in New York - once a monument to transatlantic trust - that is drawing the most anxious of glances. * * * One question... GOT GOLD? Click pic, buy ZeroHedge gold bars, puzzle future historians... Only 40 left in stock! These have been flying. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 05:45
Russia Halts Large Chunk Of Kazakhstan's Oil Export Capacity
1743584400 from ZEROHEDGE
Russia Halts Large Chunk Of Kazakhstan's Oil Export Capacity By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com Russia has ordered shut two of the three moorings of the main oil export terminal on the Black Sea handling Kazakhstan’s oil exports, which could seriously disrupt Kazakh crude shipments if the suspension lasts more than a few days. Following snap safety inspections by Russia’s Federal Agency for Transport Supervision, prompted by the Kerch Strait oil spill in December 2024, Russia ordered on Monday that the SPM-1 and SPM-2 moorings of the terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) be shut immediately, CPC said in a statement. The consortium operates the pipeline from the Caspian coast in northwest Kazakhstan to the Novorossiysk port on Russia’s Black Sea coast. The port handles most of Kazakhstan’s crude exports from giant oilfields in Kazakhstan operated by international oil firms, including U.S. supermajor Chevron. Affiliates of Chevron and ExxonMobil are also minority shareholders in CPC, whose biggest shareholder is the Russian Federation with a 24% stake. CPC complied with the order for a temporary ban of operations at the SPM-1 and SPM-2 moorings and took them out of service “until the identified deficiencies have been addressed.” Until then, all transshipment operations at the CPC Marine Terminal will be delivered using the SPM-3 mooring commissioned in 2014, the consortium said. The suspension of part of the export capacity could more than halve the crude oil exports of Kazakhstan if it drags on for more than a week, trading sources told Reuters on Tuesday. The potential disruption to Kazakhstan’s oil exports comes as the country part of the OPEC+ pact saw its crude production hit a record high in March despite continued pledges to start complying with its OPEC+ quota that it has been exceeding for years. Kazakhstan appears to find it hard to convince Chevron and the other supermajors operating in the country to limit production now after years of investing billions of U.S. dollars in oilfield expansions. Amid tensions with OPEC+ and the oil majors, Kazakhstan said last month that energy minister Almassadam Satkaliyev would step down from the role and lead a newly minted atomic energy agency. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 05:00
Which AI Chatbots Collect The Most Data About You?
1743581700 from ZEROHEDGE
Which AI Chatbots Collect The Most Data About You? The harbinger of the AI revolution, ChatGPT, remains the most popular AI tool on the market, with more than 200 million weekly active users. But amongst all its competitors, which AI chatbots are collecting the most user data? And why does that matter? Visual Capitalist's Marcus Lu visualizes data from Surfshark which identified the most popular AI chatbots and analyzed their privacy details on the Apple App Store. Their findings are as of February 18th, 2025. Gemini, the Data Collection King At first place, Google’s Gemini (released March, 2023) collects 22 different data points across 10 categories, from its users. Data collected ranges from general diagnostics (that all bots in this study collect) to access to contacts (that no other bot identified collects). Note: The Number of data points collected in each category vary per bot, leading to different totals. xAI’s Grok (released November, 2023) collects the least unique data points (7). China’s DeepSeek (released Jan 2025), sits comfortably in the middle of the pack at 11 points. The kind of data collected by each of these AI tools varies. All of them collected general diagnostics information. However, only Gemini and Perplexity look at purchases. And then, nearly all but Perplexity.ai and Grok collect user content. User content is the kind of information that is usually linked to third party data and then sold to advertisers for targeted ads on the platform. The general rule of thumb when it comes to data privacy is true for AI chatbots also. After all, information is stored on their servers, and those can be breached. Want to stay up to date on the AI revolution? Check out: Ranked: Jobs Where AI is Most Used for quick insights into the shifting workplace. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 04:15
US Treasury Targets Hezbollah's Iran-Backed Aid Network
1743579000 from ZEROHEDGE
US Treasury Targets Hezbollah's Iran-Backed Aid Network Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), Individuals and entities helping to finance the Hezbollah terrorist group were sanctioned by the Department of the Treasury on March 28. Ambulances transport the coffins of Hezbollah fighters and civilians killed in the recent war with Israel, during their funeral procession in the southern border village of Kfar Kila, Lebanon, on March 9, 2025. Rabih Daher/AFP via Getty Images The Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) “is designating five individuals and three associated companies involved in a Lebanon-based sanctions evasion network supporting the Hizballah finance team,” the agency said in a March 28 statement. Hezbollah, also known as Hizballah, is an Iran-backed terrorist group based in Lebanon. Following the Hamas terrorist attack against Israel in October 2023, Hezbollah began firing thousands of rockets and mortars into Israel. According to the Treasury Department, “the Hizballah finance team uses front companies to generate millions of dollars in revenue for Hizballah and support the group’s terrorist activities.” The team manages several commercial projects and oil smuggling networks to generate revenue, which is eventually transferred to Hezbollah, according to the Treasury. This is typically done in conjunction with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force (IRGC-QF). The individuals and companies that OFAC has sanctioned facilitate and conceal oil sales for IRGC-QF and offer the terrorist group access to formal financial systems. For instance, one of the sanctioned companies is Ravee SARL, a Lebanese business “that aims to generate profits for Hizballah from trade deals related to veterinary products,” the Treasury said. One sanctioned individual, Mahasin Mahmud Murtada, is a “registered owner of several companies associated with Hizballah’s commercial investments,” it said. With the new sanctions, all property of the designated individuals and companies that is located in the United States is “blocked and must be reported to OFAC,” the agency said. U.S. citizens are prohibited from engaging in any transactions involving the sanctioned individuals. “Violations of U.S. sanctions may result in the imposition of civil or criminal penalties on U.S. and foreign persons. OFAC may impose civil penalties for sanctions violations,” the agency stated. Acting Undersecretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Bradley T. Smith said OFAC’s latest actions aim to “expose and disrupt the schemes that fund Hizballah’s terrorist violence against the Lebanese people and their neighbors.” “These evasion networks strengthen Iran and its proxy Hizballah and undermine the courageous efforts of the Lebanese people to build a Lebanon for all its citizens,” he said. Disrupting Terrorist Financing The U.S. government previously imposed sanctions against entities for assisting Hezbollah. In 2021, the Treasury announced sanctions on multiple Chinese nationals and entities for financing the terrorist group. Many of the companies were based in Hong Kong and were directly or indirectly owned or controlled by Morteza Minaye Hashemi, an Iranian businessman living in China who was on the United States’ sanctions list and was accused of funding IRGC-QF. Hashemi laundered tens of millions of dollars through foreign exchange and gold sales, transferring the money to IRGC-QF and Hezbollah, the department said at the time. Last year, a Lebanese national pleaded guilty to circumventing U.S. sanctions to finance Hezbollah. The individual was accused of coercing an individual to liquidate real estate assets in Michigan and transfer hundreds of thousands of dollars to Lebanon without the necessary licenses. Israel is also targeting Hezbollah’s financial channels to counter the terrorist group amid its conflict with Hamas. In October 2024, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) hit branches of the U.S.-sanctioned Al-Qard Al-Hasan Association in Beirut via multiple strikes. That entity helped Hezbollah store billions of dollars in funds for its terror operations, according to the IDF. Hezbollah reportedly used the organization to buy armaments and weapon storage facilities, pay salaries of its members, and conduct terror activities. Meanwhile, the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah intensified recently when the Jewish state’s military conducted an air strike in Beirut on March 28. This was the first attack on Lebanon’s capital city after Israel and the terrorist group agreed to a cease-fire in November. The strike targeted a Hezbollah drone storage site, the military said, adding that the operation was carried out after rockets were fired at Israel from Lebanon earlier in the morning “in blatant violation of the understandings between Israel and Lebanon.” Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 03:30
Top German Politicians Are Calling For Resumption Of Russian Gas
1743576300 from ZEROHEDGE
Top German Politicians Are Calling For Resumption Of Russian Gas In Europe, the lure of a return to cheap energy is ever-present, and that conversation is becoming easier as the Trump administration in Washington pushes hard for ceasefire negotiations with Moscow. Senior German politicians are already calling for a resumption of ties with Russia. For example Michael Kretschmer, a senior member of Friedrich Merz’s centre-right Christian Democrats, is now arguing that EU sanctions on Russia are "completely out of date" as they increasingly openly contradict "what the Americans are doing." The CDU’s Michael Kretschmer, via dpa Financial Times in a fresh report quoted Kretschmer's words to the German press agency DPA as follows: "When you realize that you’re weakening yourself more than your opponent, then you have to think about whether all of this is right." The same publication has observed the expected immediate backlash to the statements as follows: Kretschmer, who is also a long-standing opponent of weapons deliveries to Ukraine, is the latest in a string of figures from both Merz’s centre-right CDU and the centre-left Social Democrats to have gone public in recent weeks with calls to resume economic or energy ties with Russia. That has created a problem for Merz — who is all but certain to be Germany’s next chancellor — as well as for his likely coalition partners in the SPD at a time when he is trying to cast himself as a strong partner for Ukraine and for Europe. Germany’s Green party, which is strongly pro-Kyiv, called on Sunday for Merz to clamp down on “friends of Putin” in his party. But Merz hasn't himself actively tried to silence this growing desire in some political circles for rapprochement with Russia. But Bloomberg reported Monday, "The co-head of Germany’s Social Democrats party and frontrunner to become the next finance minister Lars Klingbeil dismissed swirling speculation over reviving pipeline gas deliveries from Russia after a potential peace deal for Ukraine." And as we highlighted, TotalEnergies’ chief executive Patrick Pouyanne said last week: “I would not be surprised if two out of the four (came) back to stream, not four out of the four,” Patrick Pouyanne said at an industry event in Germany’s capital city, Berlin, as carried by Reuters. “There is no way to be competitive against Russian gas with LNG coming from wherever it is,” the executive added. Meanwhile, both Hungary and Slovakia not only continue bypassing Ukraine for imports of Russian gas - after Ukraine broke from the transit of Russian gas on January 1st - but are actually boosting these supplies. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto announced on Tuesday that the Veľké Zlievce/Balassagyarmat interconnection border point from Hungary to Slovakia has been brought to full capacity due to the stoppage through Ukraine. Source: EIA "We managed to solve the problem of natural gas supplies to Slovakia and Hungary, despite the fact that Ukraine created very serious difficulties for us. To ensure reliable gas supplies to Slovakia via Hungary even with the cessation of its transit through Ukraine, we had to increase the capacity of the connecting gas pipeline between our countries," the FM told a press briefing. "Today, the gas pipeline between Hungary and Slovakia is operating at increased capacity. We have now increased the capacity of this pipeline by 900 million cubic meters per year. Until now, 2.6 billion cubic meters were transported between the two countries per year. Starting today, this volume will increase to 3.5 billion cubic meters," Szijjarto noted. He added that "compared to last year's record volume, the volume of natural gas transported through Hungary to Slovakia has increased by 50% in the first three months of this year." Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 02:45
Turkey Moves To Take Control Of Strategic Airbase In Central Syria
1743573600 from ZEROHEDGE
Turkey Moves To Take Control Of Strategic Airbase In Central Syria Via Middle East Eye Turkey has begun efforts to take control of Syria's Tiyas air base, also known as T4, and is preparing to deploy air defence systems there, sources familiar with the matter told Middle East Eye. Construction plans for the site are also reportedly under way. Ankara and Damascus have been negotiating a defense pact since December, following the ousting of Bashar al-Assad. The agreement would see Turkey provide air cover and military protection for Syria’s new government, which currently lacks a functioning military. Sources say Turkey intends to deploy air defence systems like the Hisar (pictured) at T4 air base in Syria (handout). Although Turkish officials had previously downplayed the possibility of a military presence in Syria, describing such plans as premature, negotiations have quietly continued. While Israel views a Turkish military presence in Syria as a potential threat, Ankara aims to stabilize the country by leveraging its military capabilities and filling the power vacuum left by the withdrawal of Russia and Iran. Turkey also intends to intensify its fight against the Islamic State (IS) group, a key condition for the United States to consider withdrawing from the region. A source familiar with the matter told MEE that Turkey has begun moving to take control of the T4 air base, located near Palmyra in central Syria. "A Hisar-type air defense system will be deployed to T4 to provide air cover for the base," the source said. "Once the system is in place, the base will be reconstructed and expanded with necessary facilities. Ankara also plans to deploy surveillance and armed drones, including those with extended strike capabilities." The source added that the base would help Turkey establish aerial control across the region and support its efforts to combat IS, which still has cells operating in the Syrian desert. Ankara eventually aims to establish a layered air defense system in and around the base, which would have short-, medium- and long-range air defense capabilities against a variety of threats, from jets to drones to missiles. A second source noted that the presence of Turkish air defense systems and drones would likely deter Israel from launching air strikes in the area. The Turkish defense ministry declined to comment. Unnerving Israel Israel has regularly targeted Syrian military installations since Assad's government collapsed in December, with a recent surge in operations around T4. Last week, the Israeli air force struck T4 and the Palmyra air base, targeting runways and strategic assets. An Israeli security source told the media on Monday that any Turkish air base in Syria would undermine Israel’s freedom of operation. "This is a potential threat that we oppose," the source said. Map via BBC Tensions between Turkey and Israel have escalated since the start of Israel's war on Gaza in 2023, ending a brief period of reconciliation between the two countries. The collapse of the Assad government and Turkey’s emergence as a dominant power in Syria have further alarmed Israel, which now sees Ankara as a potentially greater threat in the region than Iran. "We targeted the T4 military base recently to send a message: we will not allow any threat to our operational freedom in the air," the Israeli security source told the Jerusalem Post. The first MEE source also revealed that Ankara is considering the temporary deployment of S-400 air defence systems to T4 or Palmyra to secure the airspace during reconstruction efforts. However, no final decision has been made and Russia would need to give its approval. Meanwhile, Ankara and Washington have been in talks about lifting the sanctions imposed on Turkey over its purchase of the Russian-made S-400 system, which led to Turkey's removal from the F-35 fighter jet program in 2019. Turkey is not building a military presence in Syria to fight ISIS, that’s a lie. They helped bring them over. Last time the two were neighbors, they were saluting each other. https://t.co/CZ593HRmqT — Bassem (@BBassem7) April 1, 2025 In a phone call last month, US President Donald Trump and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan discussed possible ways for Turkey to rejoin the program. Under US law, Turkey must relinquish possession of the S-400 system to be readmitted. Turkish officials have proposed deactivating the system by disassembling and storing it, or potentially relocating it to a Turkish-controlled base outside of Turkey. However, Israel strongly opposes any move that would allow Ankara access to the F-35, arguing it would erode Israel’s qualitative military edge in the region. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 02:00
USAID And The Architecture Of Perception
1743564300 from ZEROHEDGE
USAID And The Architecture Of Perception Authored by Josh Stylman via The Brownstone Institute, The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has long portrayed itself as America’s humanitarian aid organization, delivering assistance to developing nations. With an annual budget of nearly $40 billion and operations in over 100 countries, it represents one of the largest foreign aid institutions in the world. But recent disclosures reveal its true nature as something far more systematic: an architect of global consciousness. Consider: Reuters, one of the world’s most trusted news sources, received USAID funding for ‘Large Scale Social Deception’ and ‘Social Engineering Defence.’ While there’s debate about the exact scope of these programs, the implications are staggering: a division of one of the world’s most relied-upon sources for objective reporting was paid by a US government agency for systemic reality construction. This funding goes beyond traditional media support, representing a deliberate infrastructure for discourse framing that fundamentally challenges the concept of ‘objective’ reporting. Source: USASpending.gov database But it goes deeper. In what reads like a Michael Crichton plot come to life, the recent USAID revelations show a staggering reach of narrative control. Take Internews Network, a USAID-financed NGO that has pushed nearly half a billion dollars ($472.6m) through a secretive network, ‘working with’ 4,291 media outlets. In just one year, they produced 4,799 hours of broadcasts reaching up to 778 million people and ‘trained’ over 9,000 journalists. This isn’t just funding – it’s a systematic infrastructure of consciousness manipulation. The revelations show USAID funding both the Wuhan Lab’s gain-of-function research and the media outlets that would shape the story around what emerged from it. Backing organizations that would fabricate impeachment evidence. Funding both the election systems that facilitate outcomes and the fact-checkers that determine which discussions about those outcomes are permitted. But these disclosures point to something far more significant than mere corruption. These revelations didn’t emerge from nowhere – they come from government grant disclosures, FOIA requests, and official records that aren’t even hidden, just ignored. As my old friend Mark Schiffer noted the other day, ‘The most important truths today cannot be debated – they must be felt as totalities.’ The pattern, once seen, cannot be unseen. Some may question DOGE’s methods or the rapid pace of these disclosures, and those constitutional concerns deserve serious discussion. But that’s a separate conversation from what these documents reveal. The revelations themselves – documented in official records and grant disclosures – are undeniable and should shock anyone who values truth. The means of exposure matter far less than what’s being exposed: one of the largest narrative control operations in history. No domain is untouched – markets, tech, culture, health, and obviously, media – and you’ll find the same design. Intelligence agencies are deeply embedded in each domain because shaping how we perceive reality is more powerful than controlling reality itself Just as fiat currency replaced real value with declared value, we now see the same pattern everywhere: fiat science replaces inquiry with predetermined conclusions, fiat culture replaces organic development with curated influence, fiat history replaces lived experience with manufactured narratives. We live in an era of fiat everything – where reality itself is declared, not discovered. And just as they create artificial scarcity in monetary systems, they manufacture false choices everywhere else – presenting us with artificial binaries that obscure the true complexity of our world. As Schiffer wrote elsewhere, reality no longer requires consensus, only coherence. But there’s a crucial distinction: real coherence emerges naturally across multiple domains, reflecting deeper truths that cannot be fabricated. The coherence imposed by perception management isn’t truth – it’s a controlled discourse engineered for consistency, not discovery. The USAID receipts now provide concrete evidence of how this manufactured coherence is built: a scripted reality where the appearance of logic is more important than actual substance. This isn’t just pattern matching – it’s pattern prediction. Just as algorithms learn to recognize and anticipate behavioral patterns, those who understand this system’s architecture can see its next moves before they’re made. The question isn’t whether something is “true” or “false” – it’s understanding how information flows shape consciousness itself. To understand how deep this goes, let’s examine their methodology. As Dr. Sherri Tenpenny and others have meticulously documented through FOIA requests and government grant disclosures, the pattern emerges through two primary vectors of control: Information Control: $34 million to Politico (which as Tenpenny notes, struggled to make payroll without this funding) Extensive payments to the New York Times Direct funding to BBC Media Action $4.5 million to Kazakhstan to combat “disinformation” Health and Development: $84 million to Clinton Foundation health initiatives $100 million for AIDS treatment in Ukraine Funding for contraceptive programs in developing nations Cultural Programming: $20 million to Sesame Street in Iraq $68 million to the World Economic Forum $2 million for sex changes and LGBT activism in Guatemala Global cultural initiatives (millions spread across LGBTQ programs in Serbia, DEI projects in Ireland, transgender arts in Colombia and Peru, and tourism promotion in Egypt) What emerges is not just a list of expenditures, but a blueprint for global reality architecture: From Kazakhstan to Ireland, from Serbia to Peru, from Vietnam to Egypt – there isn’t a corner of the world untouched by this system. This isn’t merely a distribution of resources, but a strategic infrastructure of global influence. Each allocation – whether to media outlets, health initiatives, or cultural programs – represents a carefully placed node in a network designed to shape perception across multiple domains. First, control the flow of information through media funding. Then, establish legitimacy through health and development programs. Finally, reshape social structures through cultural programming. The end goal isn’t just to influence what people think, but to determine the boundaries of what can be thought – and to do so on a planetary scale. For those who’ve been studying the architecture of censorship, like Mike Benz has been documenting for years, none of this comes as a surprise. It’s perfect symmetry: we knew about the censorship. Now we’re seeing the receipts. One hand feeds them talking points, the other hand feeds them our taxpayer dollars. This isn’t speculation; it’s documented fact. Even Wikipedia’s own funding database contains over 45,000 reports tied to USAID – many detailing corruption, media influence, and financial manipulation. The evidence has always been there, but it was ignored, dismissed, or buried under the very fact-checking apparatus USAID funds. These weren’t crackpot theories; they were warnings. And now, we finally have the receipts. And it doesn’t stop at controlling information. USAID isn’t just shaping media portrayals – it’s funding the systems that enforce them. Last week, Benz broke a bombshell: USAID gives twice as much money ($27 million) to the fiscal sponsor of the group controlling Soros-funded prosecutors than Soros himself gives ($14 million). This isn’t about one billionaire’s influence – it’s about state-backed enforcement of scripted accounts. The same network that dictates what you can think is dictating who prosecutes crime, what laws are enforced, and who faces consequences. Source: Wikileaks USAID’s influence isn’t just about funding media control—it extends to direct political interference. It didn’t just send aid to Brazil – it funded censorship, backed left-wing activists, and helped rig the 2022 election against Bolsonaro. Former State Department official Benz revealed that the agency waged a “holy war on censorship,” systematically suppressing Bolsonaro supporters online while bolstering opposition voices. Millions flowed to NGOs pushing leftist framing, including the Felipe Neto Institute, which received US funding while Bolsonaro’s allies were deplatformed. USAID also bankrolled Amazon-based activist groups, financed media campaigns designed to manipulate public opinion, and funneled money into Brazilian organizations that pushed for stricter internet regulations. This wasn’t aid – it was election interference disguised as democracy promotion. USAID used American tax dollars to decide Brazil’s future, and it likely deployed similar tactics in many other countries – all under the guise of humanitarian assistance. And it’s not just abroad. While USAID’s defenders claim it’s a tool for charity and development in poor nations, the evidence suggests something much more insidious. It’s a $40 billion driver of regime change overseas – and now, evidence points to its involvement in regime change efforts at home. Alongside the CIA, USAID appears to have played a role in the 2019 impeachment of Trump – an illegal effort to overturn a US election using the same tools of perception sculpting and political engineering it deploys abroad. Left vs right, vaxxed vs unvaxxed, Russia vs Ukraine, believer vs skeptic (on any topic) – these false dichotomies serve to fragment our understanding while reality itself is far more nuanced and multidimensional. Each manufactured crisis spawns not just reactions, but reactions to those reactions, creating endless layers of derivative meaning built on artificial foundations. The real power isn’t in manufacturing individual facts, but in creating systems where false facts become self-reinforcing. When a fact-checker cites another fact-checker who cites a “trusted source” that’s funded by the same entities funding the fact-checkers, the pattern becomes clear. The truth isn’t in any individual claim – it’s in recognizing how the claims work together to create a closed system of artificial reality. Take the vaccine debate for example: The pattern manifests before the explanation – people passionately debate efficacy without realizing the entire framework was constructed. First, they fund the research. Then they fund the media to shape the narrative. Even skeptics often fall into their trap, arguing about effectiveness rates while accepting their basic premise. The moment you debate ‘vaccine efficacy,’ you’ve already lost – you’re using their framework to discuss what is, in reality, an experimental gene therapy. By accepting their terminology, their metrics, their framing of the discussion itself, you’re playing into their constructed reality. Each layer of control is designed not just to influence opinions, but to preemptively structure how those opinions can be formed. Like learning to spot a staged photo or hearing a false note in music, developing a reliable bullshit detector requires pattern recognition. Once you start seeing how narratives are constructed – how language is weaponized, how frameworks are built – it changes the lens with which you view the whole world. The same intelligence agencies embedding themselves in every domain that shapes our understanding aren’t just controlling information flow – they’re programming how we process that information itself. The recursive theater plays out in real time. When USAID announced funding cuts, BBC News rushed to amplify humanitarian concerns with dramatic headlines about HIV patients and endangered lives. What they didn’t mention in their reporting? USAID is their top funder, bankrolling BBC Media Action with millions in direct payments. Watch how the system protects itself: the largest recipient of USAID media funding creates emotional propaganda about USAID’s importance while obfuscating their financial relationship in their reporting. Source: Lindsay Penny (left), BBC website (right) This institutional self-defense illustrates a crucial pattern: organizations funded for reality construction protect themselves through layers of misdirection. When presented with evidence, the fact-checking apparatus funded by these same systems springs into action. They’ll tell you that these payments were for standard “subscriptions,” that programs promoting gender ideology are really just about “equality and rights.” But when USAID awards $2 million to Asociación Lambda in Guatemala for “gender-affirming health care” – which can include surgeries, hormone therapy, and counseling – those same defenders conveniently omit the details, blurring the line between advocacy and direct intervention. The very organizations funded for social architecture are the ones telling you there is no social architecture. It’s akin to asking the arsonist to investigate the fire. Like characters in a grand production, I watch old friends still trusting in institutions like the New York Times. Even this exposition becomes a potential node in the system – the very act of revealing the mechanics of control might itself be anticipated, another layer of the recursive theater. In my earlier work on technocracy, I explored how our digital world has evolved far beyond Truman Burbank’s physical dome. His world had visible walls, cameras, and scripted encounters – a constructed reality he could theoretically escape by reaching its edges. Our prison is more sophisticated: no walls, no visible limits, just algorithmic containment that shapes thought itself. Truman only had to sail far enough to find the truth. But how do you sail beyond the boundaries of perception when the ocean itself is programmed? Sure, USAID has done some good work – but so did Al Capone with his soup kitchens. Just as the infamous gangster’s charity work made him untouchable in his community, USAID’s aid programs create a veneer of benevolence that makes questioning their larger agenda politically impossible. Philanthropic window-dressing has long been a tool for power players to shield themselves from scrutiny. Consider Jimmy Savile: a celebrated philanthropist whose charity work granted him access to hospitals and vulnerable children while he committed unspeakable crimes in plain sight. His carefully cultivated image made him beyond reproach for decades, just as institutional benevolence now serves as a protective layer for global influence operations. The true function of organizations like USAID isn’t just aid – it’s social architecture, mind shaping, and the laundering of taxpayer dollars through an intricate web of NGOs and foundations. This layered deception is self-reinforcing – each level of manufactured reality is protected by another level of institutional authority. These institutions don’t just dictate stories; they shape the infrastructure through which narratives are disseminated. For what it’s worth, I believe most tools themselves are neutral. The same digital systems that enable mass surveillance could empower individual sovereignty. The same networks that centralize control could facilitate decentralized cooperation. The question isn’t the technology itself, but whether it’s deployed to concentrate or distribute power. This understanding didn’t come from nowhere. Those who first sensed this artificiality were dismissed as conspiracy theorists. We noticed the coordination across outlets, the strange synchronicity of messaging, the way certain stories were amplified while others disappeared. Now we have the sales receipts showing exactly how that manipulation was funded and orchestrated. I know this journey of discovery intimately. When I started understanding the dangers of mRNA technology, I went all in. I connected with the incredibly talented filmmaker Jennifer Sharp and helped with Anecdotals, her film about vaccine injuries. I was ready to tether my whole identity to this cause. But then I started zooming out. I began seeing how Covid might have been a financial crime designed to usher in central bank digital currency. The deeper I looked, the more I realized these weren’t isolated deceptions – it was part of a larger system of control. The very fabric of what I thought was real began to dissolve. What disturbed me most was seeing how deeply programming relies on mimicry. Humans are imitative creatures by nature – it’s how we learn, how we build culture. But this natural tendency has been weaponized. I’d present friends with peer-reviewed studies, documented evidence, historical connections – only to watch them respond with verbatim talking points from corporate media. It wasn’t that they disagreed – it was that they weren’t even processing the information. They were pattern-matching against pre-approved chronicles, outsourcing their thinking to “trusted experts” who were themselves caught in the same web of manufactured perception. I realized then: none of us knows anything for certain – we’re all just mimicking what we’ve been programmed to believe is authoritative knowledge. The challenge isn’t just seeing through any single deception – it’s understanding how these systems work together in complex, non-linear ways. When we fixate on individual threads, we miss the larger pattern. Like pulling a thread on a sweater and watching it unravel, eventually you realize there was no sweater in the first place – just an intricately woven illusion. Just as a hologram contains the whole image in each fragment, every piece of this system reflects the larger blueprint for reality construction. Consider the $34 million to Politico – this isn’t just a funding stream, but a holographic reveal of the entire system. It’s not merely that Politico received money; it’s that this single transaction contains the entire blueprint of perception management. The payment itself is a microcosm: struggling media outlet, government funding, narrative control – each element reflects the whole. This recursive system protects itself through layers of self-validation. When critics point out media bias, fact-checkers funded by the same system declare it ‘debunked.’ When researchers question official accounts, journals funded by the same interests reject their work. Even the language of resistance – ‘speaking truth to power,’ ‘fighting disinformation,’ ‘protecting democracy’ – has been co-opted and weaponized by the very system it was meant to challenge. The Covid story epitomizes this systemic manipulation. What began as a public health crisis transformed into a global experiment in narrative control – demonstrating how rapidly populations could be reshaped through coordinated messaging, institutional authority, and weaponized fear. The pandemic wasn’t just about a virus; it was a proof of concept for how comprehensively human cognition could be engineered – a single node revealing the true scope and ambition of discourse manipulation. Think about the cycle: American taxpayers unknowingly funded the crisis itself – then paid again to be deceived about it. They paid for the development of gain-of-function research, then paid again for the messaging that would convince them to accept masks, lockdowns, and experimental interventions. The system is so confident in its psychological control that it doesn’t even bother hiding the evidence anymore. As I’ve documented in my Engineering Reality series, this framework for consciousness management runs far deeper than most can imagine. USAID’s revelations aren’t isolated incidents – they’re glimpses into a vast system of social design that has been in operation for decades. When the same agency funding your fact-checkers is openly paying for ‘social deception,’ when your trusted news sources are receiving direct payments for ‘social architecture,’ the very framework of what we consider ‘real’ begins to crumble. We’re not just watching events unfold – we’re watching reactions to artificial events, then reactions to those reactions, creating an infinite regression of derivative meaning. People form passionate positions about issues that were constructed, then others define themselves in opposition to those positions. Each layer of reaction fuels the next phase of steered consensus. What we’re witnessing isn’t just the spread of manufactured realities, but the architecture of cultural and geopolitical trends themselves. Artificial trends spawn authentic reactions, which generate counter-reactions, until we’ve built entire societies responding to carefully orchestrated theater. The social engineers aren’t just steering individual beliefs – they’re reshaping the very foundations of how humans make sense of the world. These revelations are just the tip of the iceberg. Anyone paying attention to the depth and depravity of the corruption knows that this is only the beginning. As more information emerges, the illusion of neutrality, of benevolence, of institutions acting in the public interest, will crumble. No one who truly engages with this information is walking away with renewed faith in the system. The shift is only happening in one direction – some faster than others, but none in reverse. The real question is: what happens when a critical mass reaches the point where their foundational understanding of the world collapses? When they realize that the records shaping their perception were never organic, but manufactured? Some will refuse to look, choosing comfort over confrontation. But for those willing to face it, this is not just about corruption – it’s about the very nature of the reality they thought they inhabited. The implications are staggering not just for individual awareness, but for our very ability to function as a republic. How can citizens make informed decisions when reality itself has been splintered into competing manufactured tales? When people discover that their most deeply held beliefs were shaped, that their passionate causes were scripted, that even their cultural interests and tastes were curated, that their opposition to certain systems was anticipated and designed – what remains of authentic human experience? What’s coming will force a choice: either retreat into comfortable denial, dismissing mounting evidence as “right-wing conspiracy theories,” or face the shattering realization that the world we thought we inhabited never actually existed. My research over the past few years points to far more nefarious activities yet to be revealed – operations so heinous that many will simply refuse to process them. As I wrote about in “The Second Matrix,” there’s always the risk of falling into another layer of controlled awakening. But the greater risk lies in thinking too small, in anchoring ourselves to any single thread of understanding. The USAID revelations aren’t just about exposing one agency’s role in shaping reality – they’re about recognizing how our very thought patterns have been colonized by recursive layers of artificial reality. This is the true crisis of our time: not just the manipulation of reality, but the fragmentation of human consciousness itself. When people grasp that their beliefs, causes, and even their resistance were shaped within this system, they are forced to confront the deeper question: What does it mean to reclaim one’s own mind? But here’s what they don’t want you to realize: seeing through these systems is profoundly liberating. When you understand how reality is constructed, you’re no longer bound by its artificial constraints. This isn’t just about exposing deception – it’s about freeing consciousness itself from manufactured limitations. The jig may be up on USAID’s reality architecture operation. But the deeper challenge lies in reconstructing meaning in a world where the very fabric of reality has been woven from artificial threads. The choice we face isn’t just between comfortable illusion and uncomfortable truth. The old system demanded validation before belief. The new reality requires something else entirely: the ability to recognize patterns before they’re officially confirmed, to feel coherence across multiple domains, to step outside the crafted game completely. This isn’t about choosing sides in their manufactured binaries – it’s about seeing the pattern architecture itself. What does this liberation look like in practice? It’s catching the pattern of a manufactured crisis before it’s fully deployed. It’s recognizing how seemingly unrelated events – a banking collapse, a health emergency, a social movement – are actually nodes in the same network of control. It’s understanding that true sovereignty isn’t about having all the answers, but about developing the capacity to sense the web of deception before it solidifies into apparent reality. Because the ultimate power isn’t in knowing every answer – it’s in realizing when the question itself has been designed to trap you inside the manufactured paradigm. As we develop this pattern recognition capacity – this ability to see through algorithmic manipulation – what it means to be human is itself evolving. As these systems of ideological infrastructure crumble, our task isn’t just to preserve individual awakening but to protect and nurture the most conscious elements of humanity. The ultimate liberation isn’t just seeing through the deception – it’s maintaining our essential humanity in a world of tightly controlled perception. As these systems of reality sculpting crumble, we have an unprecedented opportunity to rediscover what’s real – not through their manufactured frameworks, but through our own direct experience of truth. What’s authentic isn’t always what’s organic – in a mediated world, authenticity means conscious choice rather than unconscious reaction. It means understanding how our minds are shaped while maintaining our capacity for genuine connection, creative expression, and direct experience. The most human elements – love, creativity, intuition, genuine discovery – become more precious precisely because they defy algorithmic control. These are the last frontiers of human freedom—the unpredictable, unquantifiable forces that cannot be reduced to data points or behavioral models. The ultimate battle isn’t just for truth – it’s for the human spirit itself. A system that can engineer perception can engineer submission. But there’s a beautiful irony here: the very act of recognizing these systems of reality construction is itself an expression of authentic consciousness – a choice that proves they haven’t conquered human perception completely. Free will cannot be engineered precisely because the capacity to see through engineered reality remains ours. In the end, their greatest fear isn’t that we’ll reject their manufactured world – it’s that we’ll remember how to see beyond it. Republished from the author’s Substack Tyler Durden Tue, 04/01/2025 - 23:25
Iran 'Incredibly Weakened' By Over 200 US Strikes On Houthis: White House
1743562800 from ZEROHEDGE
Iran 'Incredibly Weakened' By Over 200 US Strikes On Houthis: White House The White House on Tuesday declared that Iran has been "incredibly" weakened as a result of the Pentagon operation against Yemen's Houthis which was renewed on March 15 by President Trump and his national security cabinet. Immense controversy has ensued in the wake of 'Signalgate' which involved discussions of war planning with Atlantic journalist Jeffrey Goldberg privy to the group chat conversation. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said there's has been over 200 strikes on targets in Yemen. It has long been a US talking point going back to 2015 that the Houthis (Ansarallah movement) has been supplied by the Iranians. Shipments of Iranian weaponry has over the years been intercepted by US naval ships in Gulf area waters. US Navy image The group has fired at least eight ballistic missiles on Israel over the past week, but the US is leading the way in anti-Houthi operations. "There have now been more than 200 successful strikes," Leavitt said. "Iran is incredibly weakened as a result. They’ve taken out Houthi leaders, critical members who have been launching strikes on naval ships and commercial vessels. This operation will not stop until the freedom of navigation in this region is restored." The Houthis haven't confirmed the deaths of any leaders, nor has the US side acknowledged the repeat attacks on US warships or the carrier USS Truman. According to some of the latest: According to a brief statement broadcast by the Houthi-run al-Masirah TV, five airstrikes at dawn targeted the Jarban area in the Sanhan district southeast of Sanaa, while two others hit the Bani Matar district west of the capital. The statement further indicated that Saada, a stronghold of the group, was subjected to 15 U.S. airstrikes overnight, but did not disclose specific locations targeted. Israeli media and The Associated Press have meanwhile said that these last two weeks of strikes on Yemen have been far more devasting than similar aerial assaults under Biden. According to a report featured in center-left Times of Israel: A new American airstrike campaign against Yemen’s Houthi rebels appears more intense and more extensive, as the US moves from solely targeting launch sites to firing at ranking personnel as well as dropping bombs in city neighborhoods, an Associated Press review of the operation shows. The pattern under US President Donald Trump reflects a departure from the Biden administration, which limited its strikes as Arab allies tried to reach a separate peace with the group. It comes after the Iran-backed Houthis threatened to resume attacking “any Israeli vessel” over the country’s refusal to allow aid into the Gaza Strip. Both sides appear content to keep mum on the extent of 'success' of the back-and-forth attacks. But the consensus among war analysts is that if the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping is to be rooted out, it will take a long, sustained campaign - which we should note has not had formal war authorization from Congress. "Folks that say, ‘We’ll go in there and take out everyone with the last name Houthi and we’ll win.’ The Houthi leadership has been taken out in history in the past, and they are resilient,” said retired US Navy Vice Adm. Kevin Donegan, per AFP. “They came back and they grew stronger. So this isn’t something that is a one-and-done.” .@PressSec: "These Houthi strikes have been incredibly successful. Last time I was at this podium, there were more than 100 successful strikes. There have now been over 200 successful strikes -- Iran is incredibly weakened as a result of these attacks." pic.twitter.com/FEPyvFH5c8 — Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) April 1, 2025 As for Iran, it costs little for it to wage proxy war against US Navy ships positioned in the region. In a sense, the Pentagon is in the Iranians' backyard. Already, the Houthis have claimed to have downed the 16th US MQ-9 Reaper drone as of Tuesday, which hasn't been acknowledged as yet by the Pentagon. The controversy over the scope of US actions will likely only grow among the American populace. Tyler Durden Tue, 04/01/2025 - 23:00
Russian Arctic LNG 2 Project Resumes Gas Processing
1743561300 from ZEROHEDGE
Russian Arctic LNG 2 Project Resumes Gas Processing By Charles Kennedy of Oilprice.com Arctic LNG 2, the processing and export facility that was billed as Russia’s flagship LNG project, has gradually resumed gas processing after months of hiatus, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing industry sources and satellite images. Arctic LNG 2 has been under U.S. and EU sanctions since last year, and the project hasn’t been able to sell any cargo because of the sanctions. The first production train at the plant was shut in early October over the project developers’ inability to secure buyers amid the Western sanctions on Arctic LNG 2, according to one of Reuters’ sources. The plant continues has now slowly resumed gas processing and keeps it at low rates as Russia expects what the Trump Administration would do with the sanctions. Russian LNG developer and exporter Novatek, the majority owner of Arctic LNG 2, is looking to rebuild relations with the U.S. with the help of lobbyists, sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters in December. Hit heavily by sanctions, Arctic LNG 2 was put on ice last year and Novatek has struggled to sell any cargo to a buyer. Located in the Gydan Peninsula, Arctic LNG 2 was considered key to Russia’s efforts to boost its global LNG market share from 8% to 20% by 2030-2035. But the project has come under intensifying sanctions from the United States, which have put off any buyers that were previously considering buying cargoes from Arctic LNG 2. The project has seen months of delays after the initial U.S. sanctions in November 2023 upended the company’s plans for production start-up and export timelines. In August 2024, the U.S. State Department intensified efforts to derail Arctic LNG 2 exports by targeting companies involved in the development of the project and vessels found to have loaded LNG from the facility. The U.S. designated multiple companies related to Arctic LNG 2 to further disrupt the project’s ability to produce and export LNG, as well as the project’s ability to procure critical LNG carriers. Tyler Durden Tue, 04/01/2025 - 22:35
Democrat-Backed Crawford Wins Wisconsin Supreme Court Race
1743560100 from ZEROHEDGE
Democrat-Backed Crawford Wins Wisconsin Supreme Court Race (Update 2210ET): According to multiple outlets, Democrat-endorsed Susan Crawford has won the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, beating Republican-endorsed Brad Schimel in the most expensive judicial election in US history. Wisconsin Supreme Court candidates Brad Schimel and Susan Crawford. Getty Images The campaigns and their supporters spent more than $81 million, and drew the involvement of Elon Musk, Democratic Sen. Bernie Sanders, and other political figures. Crawford's win means that liberals will retain a 4-3 majority in the Wisconsin Supreme Court. * * * Authored by Jonathan Turley, Today, the voters of Wisconsin go to the polls in what may be the single most expensive and important judicial race in modern history. Both parties are spending millions with the balance of the state Supreme Court in the balance. If liberal Susan Crawford wins, the expectation is that she will vote with the Democratic majority to approve a gerrymandering of congressional districts to guarantee the loss of two Republicans and possibly flip control of the House of Representatives to the Democrats. The raw political pitch in the election is disturbing. It assumes that both candidates will blindly support the objectives of their respective parties. The real reason to cast a vote today should be on judicial ideology. Ironically, the United States Supreme Court made that plain in an important Wisconsin case argued just the day before the state election. The case is Catholic Charities Bureau, Inc. v. Wisconsin Labor & Industry Review Commission. In the decision below, the Democratic-controlled Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled that Catholic Charities could not benefit from a religious exemption to the state’s unemployment tax because its charitable work was not sufficiently religious. Catholic Charities is one of the world’s oldest and most respected charities. However, the church believes that it has a duty to help people of every faith who are in need. Thus, the church does not proselytize in offering such aid and services. A state labor commission ruled that the charity’s lack of such religious expression and prayer makes it secular, even if it has religious motivations. The Wisconsin Supreme Court agreed and ruled that the charity is not operated primarily for religious purposes because it does not “attempt to imbue” beneficiaries “with the Catholic faith nor supply any religious materials to program participants or employees.” In other words, the fact that Catholic Charities helps everyone and does not proselytize worked against it. The Wisconsin Supreme Court essentially argued that it needs to pray more to offer such charity as a church. It is a disturbing ruling that would allow the state to choose between religions in weighing their relative manifestations of faith. Even liberal justices cried foul over the standard. Justice Elena Kagan suggested it was “pretty fundamental that we don’t treat some religions better than others. And we certainly don’t do it based on the content of the religious doctrine that those religions preach.” Kagan noted, “Some religions proselytize. Other religions don’t. Why are we treating some religions better than others based on that element of religious doctrine?” She noted that the standard “basically puts the state on the side of some religions with some doctrine versus other religions with a different doctrine.” Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson suggested that the Wisconsin Supreme Court was asking the wrong questions about what it means to be an organization “operated primarily for religious purposes.” Justice Neil Gorsuch virtually mocked the standard of the Wisconsin Supreme Court, asking if Catholic Charities have to require the people receiving their services to “repent.” He then asked: “is mandatory church attendance versus optional church attendance, that’s the line?” Gorsuch then delivered the haymaker: “Isn’t it a fundamental premise of our First Amendment that the state shouldn’t be picking and choosing between religions, between certain evangelical sects, and Judaism and Catholicism on the other, for example?” The case shows that there are far more important issues dividing these candidates on judicial philosophy that should drive this election. I am not a fan of state elected judges and justices precisely because of the raw political element to these contests. The Catholic Charities case shows that the Wisconsin Supreme Court is divided along more than just a party line. * * * Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro professor of public interest law at George Washington University and the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.” Tyler Durden Tue, 04/01/2025 - 22:15
Rolling Risk: Unvetted Migrants Behind The Wheel Of Big Rigs Threaten US Safety & Security
1743559800 from ZEROHEDGE
Rolling Risk: Unvetted Migrants Behind The Wheel Of Big Rigs Threaten US Safety & Security Leaders of a trucking advocacy group are sounding the alarm, claiming that the American Trucking Association (ATA) advised the federal government during the Biden-Harris administration to issue hundreds of thousands of non-domiciled commercial driver's licenses (CDLs) to non-citizens—many of whom reportedly cannot read or write English. Many of these unvetted migrants were funneled into the long-haul trucking sector, which poses national security and public safety risks. Harvey Beech, a co-founder of American Truckers United (ATU), addressed lawmakers in Arkansas earlier on Monday, warning about migrant truck drivers on the state's highways—and nationwide. ATU commented on Beech's address to Arkansas lawmakers, stating: Arkansas Trucking Association's full-on backing of the Biden-Harris Trucking Action Plan is the REAL reason we're seeing a flood of non-citizen truck drivers on Arkansas highways! He's not holding back—this move has unleashed chaos, and HB1745? It's doing NOTHING to pump the brakes! Are we just handing over our roadways to Non-Citizens? Sound off below and spread this like wildfire—America needs to know 🚨BREAKING - A founder of American Truckers United (ATU) just unleashed a jaw-dropping truth: The Arkansas Trucking Association’s full-on backing of the Biden-Harris Trucking Action Plan is the REAL reason we’re seeing a flood of non-citizen truck drivers on Arkansas highways!… pic.twitter.com/eOQe2mikFk — American Truckers (@atutruckers) April 1, 2025 The National Transportation Research Board recently ranked Arkansas fourth for fatalities involving large trucks. Earlier this month in Texas, a migrant truck driver killed five people and injured 12 others. Advocacy Group Calls For US Probe On Non-English Speaking Migrant Truck Drivers After Deadly Austin Crash https://t.co/453papF7Pg — zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 19, 2025 This is shocking! Non-Citizen Trucker Kills Colorado’s Scott Miller. Widow Deann Demands Immigration & Trucking Overhaul! pic.twitter.com/QtVZy6ApDZ — American Truckers (@atutruckers) April 1, 2025 ATU co-founder Beech and another co-founder, Shannon Everett, provided more color about their fight at the Arkansas State Capitol Building to get non-domiciled CDLs off America's highways. Update on Arkansas Trucking Battle pic.twitter.com/7qCgzQpzYx — American Truckers (@atutruckers) March 31, 2025 ATU Everett also warned Arkansas lawmakers how non-English speaking migrants pose a significant danger to all Americans. An ATU representative exposed how the Arkansas Trucking Association’s bill claims to crack down on foreign and non-domicile CDLs—but its really a smokescreen to protect the loopholes letting them flood our roads. This is a betrayal of American Truckers! Watch and decide for… pic.twitter.com/2Y1YVJ0RUy — American Truckers (@atutruckers) April 1, 2025 Flooding the nation with non-English-speaking migrants holding non-domiciled CDLs and operating 80,000-pound semi-trucks poses a serious national security and public safety risk.v Tyler Durden Tue, 04/01/2025 - 22:10